Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on bread
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- Figure 1: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on bread, 2021
- The market
- Market size and forecast
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- Figure 2: Value forecast for the UK retail bread market, 2016-26
- Prepacked bread sees sales slow
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- Figure 3: UK retail sales of bread, by segment, 2019-21
- Companies and brands
- Warburtons continues to lead despite sales fall
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- Figure 4: Leading brands shares’ in the UK prepacked bread retail market, by value, 2020/21*
- Warburtons performs well in speciality bread and rolls
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- Figure 5: Leading brands shares’ in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2020/21*
- Hovis goes upmarket with 1886 range
- Advertisers step up spend in 2021; Warburtons leads spend
- The consumer
- 97% buy bread; packaged sliced loaves remain the most popular
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- Figure 6: Types of bread and bread products bought in the last month, 2020 and 2021
- Britishness stands out
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- Figure 7: Interest in bread concepts, 2021
- Health concerns prompt people to cut back on bread
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- Figure 8: Behaviours related to bread, 2021
- Opportunities to push the emotional benefits of bread
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- Figure 9: Attitudes towards bread, 2021
Issues and Insights
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- Opportunities to push emotional benefits of bread
- Push carrier role of bread as a way to explore flavours
- Bread makers should capitalise on willingness to pay more for environmentally friendly packaging
- Brand extensions into ISB and bake-at-home bread provide routes to growth
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Bread benefits from COVID-19 boost in 2020
- 2021 sales set to fall as COVID boost wanes
- Market largely set to return to pre-pandemic long-term decline
- Prepacked bread sees sales slow
Market Size and Performance
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- Impact of COVID-19 on bread
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- Figure 10: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on bread, 2021
- Bread benefits from COVID-19 boost in 2020
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- Figure 11: Retail value and volume sales of the UK bread market, 2015-20
Market Forecast
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- 2021 sales set to fall as COVID boost wanes
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- Figure 12: Value forecast for the UK retail bread market, 2016-26
- Figure 13: Volume forecast for the UK retail bread market, 2016-26
- Market largely set to return to long-term volume decline
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- Figure 14: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-25
- Forecast methodology
COVID-19 Scenario Performance
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- Mintel’s approach to predicting the impact of COVID-19
- Fundamental differences in how COVID-19 is affecting consumer markets
- The risk of vaccine-resistant strains of COVID-19 adds uncertainty
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- Figure 15: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the UK retail bread market, by value, 2016-26
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- Figure 16: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the UK retail bread market, by volume, 2016-26
- A small sales difference between Mintel’s rapid COVID recovery and extended COVID disruption scenarios in 2021
- A setback to the vaccination programme could extend social distancing into 2022
- Mintel’s rapid recovery scenario indicates a return to pre-COVID sales by the end of 2022
- COVID-19 market disruption: risks and outcomes
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- Figure 17: Summary of Mintel scenario expectations and the impact on the bread market, 2021
Market Segmentation
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- Prepacked bread accounts for almost half of sales but sales are down
- In-store and craft bakeries see sales rise on the back of reopenings
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- Figure 18: UK retail sales of bread, by segment, 2019-21
- White remains most popular; bread with bits sees fastest growth
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- Figure 19: UK retail value sales of prepacked bread, by type, 2019-21
- Speciality bread and rolls’ growth falters in 2021
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- Figure 20: UK retail value sales of speciality bread and rolls, by type, 2019-21
Market Drivers
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- Government emphasis on health intensifies under COVID-19
- HFSS food promotion and store location restrictions to come into place in 2022
- Advertising for HFSS food and drink to face new rules from end of 2022
- PHE launches more salt reduction targets for 2024
- Garlic bread affected by calorie reduction targets
- Consumer confidence returning to pre-pandemic levels
- Drop in young could hit bread alternatives; ageing population should aid packaged sliced loaves
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- Figure 21: Trends in UK population, by age, 2015-20 and 2020-25
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Warburtons continues to lead despite sales fall; Hovis sees sales rise
- Warburtons and New York Bakery perform well in speciality bread and rolls
- Hovis goes upmarket with 1886 range
- NPD looks to tap into interest in health
- Advertisers step up spend in 2021; Warburtons leads spend
Market Share
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- Warburtons continues to lead despite sales fall
- Hovis manages to grow sales
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- Figure 22: Leading brands in the UK prepacked bread retail market, by value and volume, 2018/19-2020/21
- Warburtons performs well in speciality bread and rolls
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- Figure 23: Leading brands in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2018/19-2021/21
- Other brands benefit from consumers’ desire for variety
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Private labels dominate NPD
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- Figure 24: New product launches in the UK bread market, by brands vs private label, 2017-21
- Asda takes the lead in 2021
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- Figure 25: NPD from Asda and Aldi in bread, 2021
- Amazon enters the bread market with ‘The Baker’ range
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- Figure 26: NPD from Amazon in bread, 2021
- Restaurant brand TGI Fridays expands into retail
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- Figure 27: TGI Fridays enters bread market, 2021
- Hovis goes upmarket with 1886 range
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- Figure 28: Hovis launches its Bakers Since 1886 range, 2021
- Warburtons and Old El Paso target convenience with pittas/tortillas
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- Figure 29: NPD from Warburtons and Old El Paso, 2020-21
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- Figure 30: Warburtons revamps gluten-free packaging, 2021
- NPD looks to tap into interest in health
- Immunity support is highlighted as a selling point
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- Figure 31: Bread brands look to harness interest in immunity support, 2020-21
- Modern Baker taps into interest in immunity and seeds
- Other brands look to harness interest in seeded variants
- Roberts unveils low-calorie seeded bloomer
- Kingsmill launches two new 50/50 seeded loaves
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- Figure 32: Kingsmill unveils 50/50 No Bits Multi-Seed bread, 2021
- Genius puts gut health front and centre
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- Figure 33: Genius unveils gut lovin’ range, 2021
- Bürgen looks to push plant associations
- Premier launches low-fat naan bread
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- Figure 34: Sharwood’s unveils low-fat mini naans, 2020
- Sourdough trend continues
- Geary’s Bakery launches Breads of the Worlds’ Jason’s breads
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- Figure 35: NPD in sourdough from Geary’s Bakery, 2021
- New York Bakery branches into sourdough with Deli range
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- Figure 36: New York Bakery debuts Deli range, 2020
- Environmental claims increase driven by increased consumer interest
- Tesco launches recycling points for bread bags
- Bertinet Bakery looks to challenge perceptions that sourdough doesn’t last long
- M&S extends frozen bread initiative to tackle food waste
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Advertisers step up spend in 2021 after severe cutbacks in 2020
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- Figure 37: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread, by media type, 2019-21
- Warburtons continues to lead spend
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- Figure 38: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread, by top advertisers, 2019-21 (sorted by 2021)
- New York Bakery pushes authenticity with New York or Nothin’ campaign
- Hovis supports 1886 sub-brand following cutbacks
- Allied continues support of Kingsmill 50/50…
- …and invests in supporting Allinson’s
- Old El Paso advertises mess-free Mexican meals with Tortilla Pockets
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 39: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, 2021
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 40: Key metrics for selected brands, 2021
- Brand attitudes: Warburtons leads on trust; Hovis on caring for health/wellbeing
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- Figure 41: Attitudes, by brand, 2021
- Brand personality: New York Bakery Co is seen to be the most fun
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- Figure 42: Brand personality – macro image, 2021
- Hovis leads on tradition; New York Bakery Co for being special
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- Figure 43: Brand personality – micro image, 2021
- Brand analysis
- Warburtons is seen to be the most trustworthy brand, offering good value
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- Figure 44: User profile of Warburtons, 2021
- New York Bakery Co stands out for being special, indulgent and cool
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- Figure 45: User profile of New York Bakery Co, 2021
- Hovis is seen to be the most traditional
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- Figure 46: User profile of Hovis, 2021
- Roberts Bakery struggles to stand out
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- Figure 47: User profile of Roberts Bakery, 2021
- Kingsmill’s position as a family brand driven by its 50/50 range
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- Figure 48: User profile of Kingsmill, 2021
- Reading word clouds
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- COVID-19 marks a step-change in working habits
- Britishness stands out
- Bread makers should capitalise on willingness to pay more for environmentally friendly packaging
- Health concerns prompt people to cut back on bread
- Opportunities to push emotional benefits of bread
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour
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- COVID-19 marks a step-change in working habits…
- …driving more food and drink occasions at home
- Online shopping boosted by COVID-19
- Consumers look to support local businesses
- Health becomes more of a priority in the wake of the pandemic
- Sustainability rises on consumers’ radars
- One in four say environment is a higher priority
- Consumers look to crack down on waste
Purchasing and Usage of Bread
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- 97% buy bread; packaged sliced loaves remain the most popular
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- Figure 49: Types of bread and bread products bought in the last month, 2020 and 2021
- White loaves remain the most popular
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- Figure 50: Types of packaged sliced loaves/unsliced bloomer/loaves bought in the last month, 2021
Frequency of Eating Bread
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- 44% eat packaged sliced bread and 16% other types of bread daily
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- Figure 51: Frequency of eating bread in the past month, 2021
Interest in Bread Concepts
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- Britishness stands out
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- Figure 52: Interest in bread concepts, 2021
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- Figure 53: Sainsbury’s highlights its use of British wheat flour on front of pack, 2021
- Figure 54: NPD from Hovis and Aldi with reference to Britishness/being baked in Britain, 2018 and 2021
- Offering a longer shelf life would speak to consumer concerns on waste
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- Figure 55: Warburtons communicates suitability for home freezing on-pack, 2021
- Investing in sustainable ingredients appeals to 30%
Behaviours Related to Bread
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- Health concerns prompt people to cut back on bread
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- Figure 56: Behaviours related to bread, 2021
- Minority interest in added nutritional benefits
- Calling out positive nutrition would appeal to those scrutinising ingredients
- Push carrier role of bread as a way to explore flavours
- Bread makers should capitalise on willingness to pay more for environmentally friendly packaging
- A rating system could aid consumers in their choices
Attitudes towards Bread
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- Opportunities to push emotional benefits of bread
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- Figure 57: Attitudes towards bread, 2021
- Brand extensions into ISB pose another route to growth…
- …as well as bake-at-home bread
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Central Forecast Methodology
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- Market forecast and prediction intervals
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- Figure 58: Market forecast and prediction intervals for UK value sales of bread, 2021-26
- Figure 59: Market forecast and prediction intervals for UK volume sales of bread, 2021-26
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 60: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2020-25
- Forecast methodology
Appendix – COVID Scenario Performance Methodology and Assumptions
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- Scenario performance
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- Figure 61: Scenario performance for value retail sales of bread, 2016-26
- Figure 62: Scenario performance for volume retail sales of bread, 2016-26
- Rapid COVID recovery, central and extended COVID disruption scenarios outline
- Scenario methodology
Appendix – Market Share
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- Figure 63: Leading manufacturers in the UK prepacked bread retail market, by value and volume, 2018/19-2020/21
- Figure 64: Leading manufacturers in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2018/19-2020/21
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Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Figure 65: New product launches in the UK bread market, by company, 2017-21 (sorted by 2020)
- Figure 66: New product launches featuring the word sourdough, 2015-21
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- Figure 67: New product launches in the bread market, by claim, 2017-21
- Figure 68: New product launches featuring seeds as an ingredient, 2015-21
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- Figure 69: New product launches in bread featuring the low/no/reduced calorie or fat claims, 2017-21
- Figure 70: New product launches in the bread market, by claim category, 2017-21
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Appendix – Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Figure 71: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread, by top brands, 2019-21 (sorted by 2021)
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