Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of soup, at current prices, 2016-26
- Impact of COVID-19 on soup
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on soup, July 2021
- Opportunities and challenges
- Prolonged growth will require increasing soup consumption frequency
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- Figure 3: Soup consumption frequency, NET, 2021
- Make soup a cooking staple
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- Figure 4: Cooking and Instant Pot shortcuts
- Pre-made soup lacks BFY perceptions of homemade soup
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- Figure 5: Soup attitudes – Health, 2021
- The route to wellness has many roads
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- Figure 6: Healthy soup attributes, 2021
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Dollar sales of soup expected to decline 0.8% from 2020 peak
- Declines are contained to canned segments
- Shelf-stable foods retain a boost from COVID-19
- Changes to routines in 2021 will impact the lunch occasion
- Some home cooking fatigue is anticipated
- Consumers invest in kitchen appliances during COVID-19
Market Size and Forecast
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- Dollar sales of soup projected to decline from their 2020 peak
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of soup, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of soup, at current prices, 2016-26
Segment Performance
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- Canned segments face long-term challenges
- Dry soup gains steam as an easy and flavorful cooking solution
- Ready-to-serve wet soup sales decline as COVID-19 behaviors fall away
- Condensed wet soup will be challenged to align with contemporary recipes
- Wet broth/stock remains strong, is expected to grow even stronger
- Refrigerated/frozen soup is small but mighty
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of soup, by segment, market share, at current prices, 2021
- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of soup, by segment, at current prices, 2016-26
Market Factors
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- Pandemic recovery includes both at-home and in-office working
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- Figure 11: Expected work situation in 2021, 2021
- Consumers enjoy cooking, but fatigue is on the horizon
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- Figure 12: COVID-19 related changes in food and drink behavior, 2020
- Consumers invest in cooking appliances during the pandemic
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- Figure 13: COVID-19 cooking behaviors, 2020
- COVID-19 has had a positive impact on the center-of-store
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- Figure 14: Impact of COVID-19 on food and drink habits, 2021
- Motivations for soup will pivot to health
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- Figure 15: Impact of COVID-19 on food and drink habits, 2020
- Consumer confidence on an upswing
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- Figure 16: Consumer sentiment index, 2019-2021
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Category giants start to experience declines; smaller “other” players chip away at market share
- Campbell Soup Co. and Progresso invest in snack time
- Bone broth goes from niche to necessary
- Soups can be the next smoothies
- Keep the salt – but swap out the source
Market Share
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- Category players get a glimpse at post-pandemic sales slump
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- Figure 17: Multi-outlet sales of soup, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2020 and 2021
- Shelf-stable, ready-to-serve brands face declines in 2021
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- Figure 18: Multi-outlet sales of ready-to-serve wet soup, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2020 and 2021
- The refrigerated/frozen segment has little brand activity and open to new players
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- Figure 19: Multi-outlet sales of refrigerated fresh soup/frozen soup, market share, by leading brands, 2021
Competitive Strategies
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- “Plant-based” outpaces vegan and vegetarian claims
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- Figure 20: Soup launches, by select on-pack claims, percent change 2019-2020
- Figure 21: Soup launches featuring a plant-based claim
- Brands go small for snack time
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- Figure 22: Snack-sized soup launches
- Bone broth hits mainstream portfolios
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- Figure 23: Soup launches made with bone broth
- Campbell’s adds pull tops, sippable soups to portfolio
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- Figure 24: Campbell’s launches featuring packaging innovation
Market Opportunities
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- Position soup as the accessible way to eat healthy
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- Figure 25: Soup launches featuring plant-based or plant-rich positioning
- Include kids in the plant-based discussion
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- Figure 26: Kid-friendly plant-based products
- Utilize recognizable and natural sources of sodium
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- Figure 27: Soup products with innovative salt inclusions/exclusions
- Cater to home cooks looking for some assistance
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- Figure 28: Product launches promoting recipe and kitchen appliance shortcuts
- Make soup good food . . . for the environment
- Soup ingredients are good contenders for regenerative agriculture
- Minimize food waste by including ugly produce
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- Figure 29: Soup launches featuring environmental and ethical claims
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Shelf-stable soup is the most popular . . .
- . . . but frozen and refrigerated soup are eaten the most frequently by their fan base
- 36% of consumers are eating soup more often; 26% plan to keep up the pace
- Think outside the can to entice younger consumers
- Soup’s role in health is in flux
- Give familiar, comforting soups a BFY spin
Soup Consumption
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- Prepared soups fall behind cooking staples
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- Figure 30: Soup consumption, NET, 2021
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- Figure 31: Soup consumption, 2021
- Shelf-stable soups most popular among Shortcut Cooks
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- Figure 32: Soup consumption, by cooking segmentation, 2021
- Men 18-34 are the audience for refrigerated/frozen soup
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- Figure 33: Soup consumption, by gender and age, 2021
- Parents, especially dads, have wider soup repertoires
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- Figure 34: Repertoire of soup consumption, parental status by gender, 2021
- Non-white consumers could be further engaged in the category
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- Figure 35: Soup consumption, NET, by race and Hispanic origin, 2021
Soup Consumption Frequency
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- Frozen and refrigerated soup lead in consumption frequency
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- Figure 36: Soup consumption frequency, by soup consumption NETs, 2021
- Regular cooking leads to frequent soup usage
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- Figure 37: Soup consumption frequency, any soup, by cooking segmentation, 2021
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- Figure 38: Bouillon brand Instagram posts
- Under 45s are the most frequent soup consumers
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- Figure 39: Soup consumption frequency, any soup, by age, 2021
Change in Soup Consumption
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- More than a quarter plan to keep up with increased engagement
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- Figure 40: Change in soup consumption compared to one year ago, 2021
- Ride the current wave of at-home cooking before it breaks
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- Figure 41: Change in soup consumption, by cooking segmentation, 2021
- Consumers aged 18-24 are growing less hot on soup
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- Figure 42: Change in soup consumption, by age, 2021
Reasons for Eating Soup More Often
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- Both health and comfort drive increased consumption
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- Figure 43: Reasons for eating soup more often than a year ago, 2021
Reasons for Eating Soup Less Often
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- Aspirations to eat less sodium and processed foods are driving consumers away
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- Figure 44: Reasons for eating soup less often than a year ago, 2021
Healthy Soup Attributes
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- Improve sodium, add vegetables
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- Figure 45: Healthy soup attributes, 2021
- Ingredients resonate with older consumers, wellness and functional claims with younger consumers
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- Figure 46: Healthy soup attributes, by age, 2021
Interest in Soup Packaging
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- Make convenient packaging higher quality and more sustainable
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- Figure 47: Interest in soup packaging, 2021
- Lure and retain young consumers with packaging innovation
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- Figure 48: Interest in soup packaging, by age, 2021
- Boost premium perceptions with premium packaging
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- Figure 49: Interest in soup packaging, by household income, 2021
Soup Attitudes
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- Health attitudes can be strengthened
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- Figure 50: Soup attitudes, health, 2021
- Premium and affordable aren’t necessary mutually exclusive
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- Figure 51: Soup attitudes, value, NET any agree, 2021
- Affluent consumers aged 18-34 are the target audience for DTC soup efforts
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- Figure 52: DTC soup attitudes, NET any agree, by age and income, 2021
Interest in Soup Innovation
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- Strike a balance with comforting flavors and BFY ingredients
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- Figure 53: Interest in soup innovation, 2021
- Figure 54: Soup launches with familiar flavors and BFY claims and ingredients
- Entice younger consumers with format/occasion disruption
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- Figure 55: Interest in soup innovation, by age, 2021
- Consider BFY snackable soups for families
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- Figure 56: Interest in soup innovation, by parental status, 2021
- Health and flavor can nudge non-white consumers
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- Figure 57: Interest in soup innovation, by race and Hispanic origin, 2021
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Cooking Segmentation
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- Confident Home Cooks
- Shortcut Cooks
- Reluctant Cooks
- Non-Cooks
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- Figure 58: Cooking segmentation, 2021
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
- Figure 60: Total US retail sales of soup, by segment, at current prices, 2019 and 2021
- Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-serve wet soup, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-serve wet soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
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- Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of condensed wet soup, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of condensed wet soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
- Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry soup, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
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- Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of wet broth/stock, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of wet broth/stock, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
- Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated fresh soup/frozen soup, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated fresh soup/frozen soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
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Appendix – Retail Channels
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- Figure 71: Total US retail sales of soup, by channel, at current prices, 2016-21
- Figure 72: Total US retail sales of soup, by channel, at current prices, 2019 and 2021
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Appendix – Brands and Companies
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- Figure 73: Multi-outlet sales of condensed wet soup, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2020 and 2021
- Figure 74: Multi-outlet sales of dry soup, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2020 and 2021
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- Figure 75: Multi-outlet sales of wet broth/stock, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2020 and 2021
- Figure 76: Multi-outlet sales of refrigerated fresh soup/frozen soup, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2020 and 2021
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