Experience of skin conditions remained steady from 2019 to 2021, whilst experience of non-food allergies declined; the most prevalent allergy – seasonal – fell from 45% in 2019 to 39% in 2021. Although the wearing of masks has given rise to irritation and skin breakouts (termed ‘maskne’), when it comes to seasonal allergies, face coverings have contributed to a reduction in symptoms through 2020 by reducing exposure to pollen.

As such, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in smaller than usual growth for the market value of OTC allergy remedies, but stronger growth is expected in following years as social restrictions ease and pollution levels again rise to pre-pandemic levels – exacerbating the symptoms of hay fever, the leading non-food allergy in the UK.

A threat to the allergy remedy segment comes from reduced innovation. There will likely be a number of first-time hay fever sufferers, or experience of more severe symptoms driving existing sufferers of hay fever towards remedies, and yet product innovation in this area has slowed significantly and may not meet the needs of a new audience. Interest in prevention and natural formulas is high and could be an opportunity for brands.

Opportunities for brands operating in the skin conditions space come from the wearing of face masks. The new normalcy of mask-wearing (expected to continue for some even after the pandemic has subsided) has already given rise to launches from high-end brands that specifically target ‘maskne’, and future innovation is expected from mass market and discount brands as awareness grows to broaden appeal.

• Impact of COVID-19 on skin conditions and allergies.

• Experience of skin conditions in the last 12 months.

• Treatment and management of skin conditions in the last 12 months.

• Triggers for skin conditions.

• Experience and treatment of non-food allergies in the last 12 months.

• Attitudes towards allergies and allergy remedies.

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. Rapidly rising case numbers led to the first national lockdown, starting on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to reopen, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a month-long lockdown from 5 November and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions.

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions further in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown.

On 22 February, Boris Johnson announced the roadmap to an easing of restrictions in England, starting with the reopening of schools on 8 March, followed by easing of restrictions on outdoor gatherings on 29 March, and with a hoped end to all restrictions by 21 June, although the growth of the Delta variant means this final lifting of restrictions was delayed. The Welsh and Scottish governments also gave more details on their plans to ease restrictions, with both nations taking a slightly more cautious approach to the one planned for England.

Even before the full re-opening of the economy, retail sales and Mintel’s own household finances Tracker provided encouraging signs of a rapid return to consumer confidence, and a willingness to spend at least some of the savings that many households were able to build up over lockdown period.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020. As of 15 June, nearly 80% of the UK population had received their first dose of the vaccine and more than 57% had received their second dose.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its March 2021 Economic and Fiscal Outlook Report, but also take into account predictions made by other economic forecasts, including the Bank of England.

After the fall of 9.9% over the course of 2020, the OBR’s scenario suggests that UK GDP will grow by 4% in 2021 and 7.3% in 2022. GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until the second quarter of 2022, although this is six months earlier than the OBR forecast in November 2020, mainly because of the faster than expected rollout of vaccines.

Unemployment is expected to peak at 6.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021. As with GDP, this is more positive than the OBR’s November forecast, but the OBR does raise the prospect of long-term scarring on employment, especially in the more exposed retail and hospitality sectors.

The rapid vaccine rollout and the continued efficacy of the vaccine, however, means that more recent economic forecasts have been significantly more optimistic than the OBR’s March forecast, even given the rise of the Delta variant. We have factored this rise in optimism into our market analysis and scenario forecasts.

This Mintel Report focuses on consumer experience and treatment of the following skin conditions:

• Acne and spots

• Allergic reactions

• Rosacea

• Eczema, psoriasis, dermatitis, or other skin sensitivity.

Within the personal care categories of:

• Facial skincare

• Bodycare

• Haircare

• Soap, bath and shower products.

This Report also focuses on consumer experience and management of non-food allergies (eg hay fever, dust, pets, etc), not exclusively related to the skin.

Not included in the scope of this Report are:

• Prescription medication or OTC products that are taken orally to treat skin conditions (for example, non-prescription antihistamine tablets taken orally to treat skin rashes or irritations)

• Products with medicated ingredients or additions (eg foundation with acne-fighting ingredients, bandages with antibiotic ointment added to the pad)

• Lice treatments

• Homeopathic and other complementary medicines.

Please also note that market size/share data used throughout the Report includes sales of allergy remedy products only. Market size/share data is not available for products aimed at the treatment of skin conditions.