Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast, including ecommerce, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on retail and ecommerce
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on retail and ecommerce, June 2021
- Opportunities and challenges
- Look inward to crystalize company values
- Look outward to partnership opportunities
- Offer products and services linked to wellbeing
- Dimensionalize the meaning of value
- Move beyond transactional to personal
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- The pandemic’s uneven start resulted in varying levels of impact
- Spending patterns mirror the economy’s drop and rebound
- Retail industry is strong and resilient; set to keep posting gains
COVID-19 Pandemic Overview
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- Figure 3: Daily trends in number of COVID-19 cases in the United States reported to CDC, Jan. 22, 2020-May 19, 2021
- January-March 2020: discovery and first wave
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- Figure 4: Number of COVID-19 cases in the United States reported to CDC, by region, Jan 22, 2020-May 19, 2021
- April-July 2020: uneven lockdown and uneven impact as cases climb
- August 2020-January 2021: new leadership, a new variant and first vaccinations
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- Figure 5: COVID-19 vaccinations in the United States, Dec 13, 2020-May 20, 2021
- February 2021 onward: double masking and the road to reopening
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- Figure 6: Projected dates for vaccination coverage, as of May 19, 2021
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Market Impact on Retail and eCommerce
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- Economic indicators
- A record drop and bounce back in economic activity
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- Figure 7: US GDP percent change from previous period, not seasonally adjusted, 2007-25 (forecast)
- Employment plummets, recovers to 2016 levels; retail is especially challenged
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- Figure 8: Unemployment and underemployment rate, January 2007-April 2021
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- Figure 9: Initial jobless claims, January 13, 2007-May 15, 2021
- Figure 10: Employment levels, by industry – Manufacturing, wholesale, retail, transportation/warehouse sectors, March 2001-March 2021
- Consumer spending and confidence are catching up
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- Figure 11: Real personal consumption expenditures and change in personal consumption expenditures, Q1 2007-Q1 2021
- Figure 12: Personal savings rate, monthly, January 2007-March 2021
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- Figure 13: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-April 2021
- Federal Reserve promises to keep interest rates “near zero”
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- Figure 14: Effective Federal Funds Rate, January 1990-April 2021
- Inflation concerns grow as economic growth accelerates
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- Figure 15: Consumer Price Index change from previous period, January 2007-April 2021
- Figure 16: US gasoline and diesel retail prices, January 2007-April 2021
- Global computer chip shortage ripples throughout the economy
- Household finances and spending priorities
- Financial wellbeing is improving, despite only half of Americans thinking their financial situations are healthy
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- Figure 17: Financial health, by household income, April 29-May 13, 2021
- Stimulus relief has been a lifeline for many
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- Figure 18: Financial situation, by household income, April 29-May 13, 2021
- Essential goods remain priorities…
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- Figure 19: Coronavirus spending habits, March 31-April 17, 2021
- …but discretionary categories show signs of rebirth
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- Figure 20: Coronavirus spending habits – Higher priority, April 16-24, 2020-March 31-April 17, 2021
- Savings remains a focus, but consumers ready to make exceptions
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- Figure 21: Spending behaviors – Past three months and future plans, May 2021
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- Figure 22: Spending behaviors – Past three months, May 2020-May 2021
- Policy impacts
- Vaccine rollouts force retailers to implement their own mask mandates
Market Size and Forecast
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- Industry continues to post gains, but pace of growth will decelerate
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- Figure 23: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast, including ecommerce, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 24: Total US retail sales and forecast, including ecommerce, at current prices, 2015-25
- Elevated ecommerce levels expected to outlast pandemic
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- Figure 25: Total US retail ecommerce sales and fan chart forecast, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 26: Total US retail ecommerce sales and forecast, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 27: eCommerce share of total sales, 2015-25
COVID-19 Scenario Performance
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- Mintel’s approach to predicting the impact of COVID-19
- Fundamental differences in how COVID-19 is affecting consumer markets
- Rapid recovery benefits stores over ecommerce and vice versa for extended disruption
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- Figure 28: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the total retail market, including ecommerce, 2015-25
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- Figure 29: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for ecommerce, 2015-25
- COVID-19 market disruption: risks and outcomes
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- Figure 30: Summary of Mintel scenario expectations and the impact on the retail and ecommerce market, June 2021
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Essential retailers dominated, but opportunities emerged for specialists
- Retail reinvents itself – again
- Customer service means more than ringing a cash register
Retail Winners and Losers
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- Essential versus nonessential retailers
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- Figure 31: Shopping at specific retailers, April 2021
- eCommerce grows grocery sales, but challenges profitability
- Circular retail boomed in 2020
Market Opportunities
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- Look for next level omnichannel opportunities
- Bringing the in-store experience online
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- Figure 32: Walmart acquires virtual fitting room start-up Zeekit
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- Figure 33: Credo Beauty promotes personalized consultations and classes
- Figure 34: Ralph Lauren offers virtual shopping experience
- Consider the evolving role of the store
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- Figure 35: Nordstrom Local concept expanded in California
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- Figure 36: Foot Locker power store concept expanded in Canada
- Have a POV on pricing and product consistency across channels
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- Figure 37: Attitudes toward consistency across channels, by gender and age, April 2021
- Leverage social media as an ecommerce tool
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- Figure 38: Attitudes toward shopping on social media, by generation, June 2020
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- Figure 39: Instagram adds new Drops feature
- Figure 40: L’Oréal partners with TikTok to test new ecommerce tools
- Re-think the meaning of value
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- Figure 41: Feed it Forward grocery store
- Equip sales associates with the necessary tools to get personal
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- Figure 42: Attitudes toward personalization, by gender and age, April 2021
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- Figure 43: L’Oréal promotes innovations that drive personalization
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Sharp shift from stores to online
- Pandemic underscores importance of omnichannel retailing approach
- Essentials thrived, while the pandemic challenged specialists
- Malls losing strength, not all will make a comeback
- Cleanliness and contactless emerge as retailer drivers
- Shoppers want immediate savings and free shipping
- Investing in the next normal means investing in tech
Overall Consumer Mindset
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- Fear is subsiding one year after pandemic lockdowns
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- Figure 44: Share of adults worried about coronavirus exposure, March 2020-May 2021
- Lifestyle concerns follow suit
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- Figure 45: Share of adults worried about coronavirus impact on lifestyle, March 2020-May 2021
- The pandemic experience inspired reflection
- Family first
- New view of health and wellness
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- Figure 46: Post COVID-19 priority changes, May 2021
- Masks still provide a level of comfort despite new guidelines
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- Figure 47: Level of comfort with activities, May 2021
Channel Shifting
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- Consumers shift to less in-store, more online
- Two thirds of Millennials do the majority of their shopping digitally
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- Figure 48: Percentage of total purchases made online, by generation, April 2021
- Online shopping frequency rises
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- Figure 49: Online shopping frequency, March 2020 and April 2021
- Computers remain most common device for online purchases, but mobile shopping is the future
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- Figure 50: Device used when shopping online, April 2021
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- Figure 51: Device used when shopping online, by generation, April 2021
Shopping Method by Category
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- Consumers are still prioritizing essential items, but signs of stabilization begin to emerge
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- Figure 52: Products shopped for, March 2020, December 2020 and April 2021
- Multichannel shopping is the norm
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- Figure 53: Multichannel shopping versus single-channel shopping, by category, April 2021
- Multichannel shopping declined amid pandemic for most categories as more people shopped only online, but it’s rebounding
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- Figure 54: Multichannel shopping by category – Trended, March 2020, December 2020 and April 2021
- eCommerce is bright spot for all categories
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- Figure 55: Where purchases occurred – By channel, by item, before and amid COVID-19, March 2020 and April 2021
- Store for buying, online for searching but there are some exceptions
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- Figure 56: Method of shopping, select categories, April 2021
Retailers Shopped
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- Value-based retailers win share, specialists struggle
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- Figure 57: Retailers shopped, April 2021
- Essential retailers benefited in-store from open doors, while specialists see a boost online
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- Figure 58: Specific retailers shopped – In-store vs online and frequency, April 2021
- Amazon gained new shoppers, solidified its presence
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- Figure 59: Retailers shopped online and frequency, by age, April 2021
- Secondhand marketplace grows with young women big advocates
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- Figure 60: Retailers shopped – Secondhand retailers, by gender and age, April 2021
Shopping at Malls
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- Pandemic punch might be final blow for many malls
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- Figure 61: Mall visitation comparison levels, April 2021
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- Figure 62: South Coast Plaza’s The Pavilion
- Figure 63: Open-air shopping centers outperform indoor spaces during pandemic
- COVID-19 kept shoppers away; now they need a good reason to return
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- Figure 64: Reasons for not visiting malls or going less, April 2021
- A third of adults visit malls to curb boredom
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- Figure 65: Reasons for visiting malls, April 2021
- Future outlook for malls is grim
Retailer Drivers
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- The basics still matter…
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- Figure 66: Retailer drivers, April 2021
- …and so does going beyond the basics
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- Figure 67: Retailer drivers, by generation, April 2021
- New drivers emerge because of COVID-19
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- Figure 68: Retailer offerings in light of COVID-19, April 2021
Meaning of Value
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- Consumers view free and fast as the most valuable
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- Figure 69: Meaning of value – NET, April 2021
- Older consumers want to save money, younger consumers want more flexibility
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- Figure 70: Behold shopping app style quiz
- Figure 71: Meaning of value – Select factors, by age, April 2021
- Conscious consumers see value in sustainable options
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- Figure 72: Meaning of value – Sustainability, by gender and age, April 2021
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- Figure 73: Adidas and Allbirds partner on sustainability initiative
- Fast and free shipping and returns are key for Hispanic shoppers
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- Figure 74: Meaning of value – Select factors, by Hispanic origin, April 2021
Preferred Types of Promotions
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- Consumers prefer to save on the current purchase
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- Figure 75: Preferred promotions, April 2021
- Young adults have an interest in promotions that incentivize shopping
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- Figure 76: Preferred promotions, by gender and age, April 2021
- Figure 77: Wayfair Way Day promotion
- Parents are less particular, prefer what’s available
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- Figure 78: Preferred promotions, by parental status, by gender, April 2021
- Figure 79: buybuy BABY teams up with @Feed on charitable effort
- Multicultural shoppers prefer simplified promotions
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- Figure 80: Preferred promotions, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2021
Usage of and Interest in Emerging Technologies
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- Retailers should educate the masses on how to shop smarter with tech
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- Figure 81: Usage of and interest in emerging technologies, April 2021
- Tech savviness at retail matters most to younger shoppers
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- Figure 82: Usage of and interest in emerging technologies, by gender and age, April 2021
- A closer look at select technologies
- Contactless payments
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- Figure 83: Amazon one pay-by-palm technology
- Augmented and virtual reality
- Digital screens
- Fit technology
- Wayfinding technology
- Livestream shopping events
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- Figure 84: Walmart and TikTok host Holiday Shop-Along Spectacular
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 85: Total US retail sales and forecast, including ecommerce, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 86: Total US ecommerce sales and forecast, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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Appendix – COVID-19 Scenario Performance Methodology and Assumptions
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- Scenario performance
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- Figure 87: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for total retail sales, including ecommerce, 2020-25
- Figure 88: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for ecommerce retail sales, 2020-25
- Rapid COVID-19 recovery, central and extended COVID-19 disruption scenarios outline
- Scenario methodology
Appendix – The Consumer
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- Supporting data
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- Figure 89: Shopping behaviors amid COVID-19, April 16, 2020-February 10, 2021
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- Figure 90: Products shopped for – Trended view with percentage point differences, March 2020, December 2020 and April 2021
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- Figure 91: Furniture and home furnishings stores – Monthly percentage change in sales, 2019-April 2021
- Trend drivers
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