Over half (56%) of people would buy a smart home device to live more sustainably. Smart thermostats are often the device most associated with this; however, products like the TP-Link Kasa Mini help with sustainable living. This is a smart plug that monitors the energy usage of the appliance that is plugged into it, and 83% of consumers interested in smart plugs would buy smart home devices to live more sustainably.

The overall smart home market has been boosted by the lifestyle changes from COVID-19, with ownership of all connected home products increasing between March 2020 and March 2021. Older Millennials are expected to be key to the market’s long-term success as they are the most likely (66%) to say that spending time at home during COVID-19 has made them more likely to buy smart home devices. With a section of them intending to work from home in the long-term, this should help the overall connected home market.

Privacy with voice-controlled speakers remains a concern for a section of consumers. Some 37% of people without a speaker say having more control over how their data is used would encourage them to buy one, despite there already being several key data management features offered. Something that could help ease these concerns is getting regular emails, for example, once a week, detailing every interaction with a voice assistant, instead of manually finding this history in an app.

As part of the Matter internet protocol, the key smart home manufacturers are also trying to make devices at home interact more seamlessly, regardless of brand or voice assistant. This could open up possibilities for features like a voice-controlled speaker notifying a person when a smart thermostat or smart plug has consumed a lot of energy, which would appeal to people trying to live more sustainably.

• The short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on ownership and interest in connected home products.

• Type of voice-controlled speaker owned at home and which features are most important to consumers who have one or are interested in buying one.

• How consumers have used their voice-controlled speakers since COVID-19 and how these services could be developed to provide even greater functionality.

• The potential impact of the Matter protocol on the market and what a seamless connected home experience means for consumers.

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. Rapidly rising case numbers led to the first national lockdown, starting on 23 March. It was not until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to reopen, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July, and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social-distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a month-long lockdown from 5 November, and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions.

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions further in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown.

On 22 February, Boris Johnson announced the roadmap to an easing of restrictions in England, starting with the reopening of schools on 8 March, followed by easing of restrictions on outdoor gatherings on 29 March. Following a reduction in daily infection numbers, restrictions continued to ease on 17 May. While it was hoped that all social distancing measures would be removed by 21 June, a rise in infections caused England to extend the rules implemented on 17 May for a further four weeks to 19 July.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, and with the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines all licensed for use in the UK. From 17 June all adults aged 18 and over in England could book a vaccine.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its March 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Report. After the fall of 9.9% over the course of 2020, the scenario suggests that UK GDP will grow by 4% in 2021 and 7.3% in 2022.

GDP is not expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until the second quarter of 2022, although this is six months earlier than the OBR forecast in November 2020, mainly because of the faster than expected rollout of vaccines.

Unemployment is expected to peak at 6.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021. As with GDP, this is more positive than the OBR’s November forecast, but the OBR does raise the prospect of long-term scarring on employment, especially in the more exposed retail and hospitality sectors.

For the purposes of this Report the labels ‘smart’ and ‘connected’ refer to a family of features, including home automation and adaptive behaviour powered by machine learning; connectivity with other devices (including, but not limited to, a user’s smartphone) via various protocols (including wi-fi and Bluetooth); and providing users with data on device usage (eg energy consumption data).

Devices referred to as ‘smart’ and/or ‘connected’ may have some but not all of these features. The connected home products included within the scope of Mintel’s consumer research for this Report are:

• Smart heating appliance/thermostat (eg Nest Learning Thermostat, Hive Active Heating)

• Smart security devices (including door locks, cameras and sensors)

• Smart lighting (eg Philips Hue)

• Smart appliances (eg fridges)

• Smart audio speakers (eg Sonos Play)

• Smart home hub controllers (eg SmartThings Hub)

• Voice-controlled speakers with embedded virtual assistants (eg Amazon Echo, Google Home). A smart display is a voice-controlled display (eg Amazon Echo Show 5, Facebook Portal).