Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of travel, at current prices, 2015-25
- Scenario forecast
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- Figure 2: Scenario forecast for travel, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on travel
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- Figure 3: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on travel, May 2021
- Challenges
- Some industries still face reluctant consumers
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- Figure 4: Travel activity willingness, April 2021
- Travel holdouts remain firm in their plans
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- Figure 5: Trip intentions, April 2021
- COVID-19 is the key barrier for the foreseeable future
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- Figure 6: Travel barriers – 2021 vs 2022, April 2021
- Opportunities
- Sanitation practices and cancellation policies are lasting products of the pandemic
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- Figure 7: Attitudes toward pandemic-era policies, April 2021
- Indoor activities have been missed
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- Figure 8: Eagerness for activities post-pandemic, April 2021
- Travelers look to take it easy in the future
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- Figure 9: Attitudes toward post-pandemic travel, April 2021
- What it means
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Travel suffered greatly due to COVID-19, with a long recovery ahead
- Vaccines have been the catalyst for recovery…
- …and will continue to determine its velocity
- Willingness to travel varies by demographic groups
- Asians have concerns beyond the virus
COVID-19 Pandemic Overview
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- Figure 10: Daily trends in number of COVID-19 cases in the US reported to CDC, Jan 22, 2020-May 19, 2021
- January-March 2020: Discovery and first wave
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- Figure 11: Number of COVID-19 cases in the US reported to CDC, by region, Jan 22, 2020-May 19, 2021
- April-July 2020: Uneven lockdown and uneven impact as cases climb
- August 2020-January 2021: New leadership, a new variant and first vaccinations
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- Figure 12: COVID-19 vaccinations in the US, Dec 13, 2020-May 20, 2021
- February 2021 onward: Double masking and the road to reopening
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- Figure 13: Projected dates for vaccination coverage, as of May 19, 2021
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The Economic Impact
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- A record drop and bounce back in economic activity
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- Figure 14: US GDP percent change from previous period, not seasonally adjusted, 2007-25 (forecast)
- Employment plummets – recovers to 2016 levels
- Unemployment rise signals broader labor issues
- A lack of travel personnel can create poor experiences
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- Figure 15: Unemployment and underemployment rate, January 2007-April 2021
- Consumer spending and confidence are catching up
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- Figure 16: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-April 2021
- A high savings rate will mean more (and more valuable) travelers
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- Figure 17: Personal Saving Rate, percentage, monthly, seasonally adjusted annual rate, Jan 2019 - Mar 21
- Travelers should be able to weather increasing fuel prices
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- Figure 18: US gasoline and diesel retail prices, January 2007-April 2021
Impact of COVID-19 on Household Finances and Spending Priorities
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- Financial wellbeing is improving, despite only half of Americans thinking their financial situations are healthy
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- Figure 19: Financial health, by household income, April 29-May 13, 2021
- Stimulus relief has been a lifeline for many
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- Figure 20: Financial situation, by household income, April 29-May 13, 2021
- Discretionary categories show signs of rebirth
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- Figure 21: COVID-19 spending habits – higher priority, April 16-24, 2020 - March 31-April 17, 2021
Travel Market Factors
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- Brands need to decide on their role in vaccine passports
- Anti-Asian prejudice has been rising, may persist
Travel Market Size and Forecast
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- COVID-19’s harm to travel was severe, and necessitates a long recovery
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- Figure 22: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of travel, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 23: US spending on travel, at current prices, 2015-25
Segment Performance
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- Airline recovery will remain depressed despite recent surge
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- Figure 24: US passenger airline operating revenue and forecast, at current prices, 2015-25
- Hotels fend for themselves, face new competition
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- Figure 25: Total US revenues and forecast for hotels and other traveler accommodations, at current prices, 2015-25
- Cruise passengers will return in force
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- Figure 26: Number of cruise passengers sourced from US and forecast, 2015-25
Scenario Forecast
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- Travel rises and falls with vaccines
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- Figure 27: Scenario forecast for travel, 2015-25
Pandemic Effect on Travel
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- Travel dropped by over one third, but has revealed resiliency
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- Figure 28: Pre-pandemic vs pandemic travel, April 2021
- Travel declines weren’t uniform among demographics
- Older travelers
- Asian adults
- Middle-income adults
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- Figure 29: Leisure travel by demographics, April 2021
- Disruption of everyday life led established travelers to travel more
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- Figure 30: Number of leisure trips, by trip timing, April 2021
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Hotel alternatives, road trips and outdoor activities were big in the pandemic
- Travelers turned away from airlines, cruises and indoor venues
- Concepts of food and beverage, space and time will change post-pandemic
Category Winners and Losers
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- Winners: Hotel alternatives, road trips, outdoor activities
- Travelers turned to hotel alternatives when the world changed
- Road trips endure
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- Figure 31: Travel OK “Roadtrip OK” series, July 2020
- Travelers got a new appreciation for the outdoors
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- Figure 32: Winnebago Solis Pocket walkthrough video, May 2021
- Losers: Airlines, cruise lines, indoor venues
- Airlines needed bailing out, still await the opening of borders
- Lockdown forces cruise lines to pivot to the horizon
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- Figure 33: Norwegian Cruise Lines “Break Free” ad, November 2020
- Indoor attractions rely on traveler confidence, but find a new marketing vector
Redefining the Future
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- Airlines: Food and beverage redefined
- Accommodations: Space redefined
- Tourism: Time redefined
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Young, high-income travelers are the short-term focus
- Travelers want sanitation, cancellation policies to continue
- Among holdouts, prioritize upgrades over destinations
- Highlight the great indoors
- COVID-19 will be a lingering travel concern
- Expect travelers to slow down
Current Consumer Mindset
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- Fear is subsiding one year after pandemic lockdowns
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- Figure 34: Share of adults worried about COVID-19 exposure, March 2020 – May 2021
- Lifestyle concerns follow suit
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- Figure 35: Share of adults worried about coronavirus impact on lifestyle, March 2020 – May 2021
- The pandemic experience inspired reflection
- Family first
- New view of health and wellness
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- Figure 36: Post COVID-19 priority changes, May 2021
- Masks still provide a level of comfort despite new guidelines
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- Figure 37: Level of comfort with activities, May 2021
Travel Until the Pandemic Ends
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- There is a long trail of travelers waiting to return
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- Figure 38: Future travel plans, April 2021
- Appeal to young, high-HHI travelers now; appeal to others’ safety concerns
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- Figure 39: Future travel plans, April 2021
- Brands need to stay the course in instilling confidence in travelers
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- Figure 40: Travel activity willingness, April 2021
- Airlines, hotels and indoor venues face strong reluctance
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- Figure 41: Travel activity holdouts, April 2021
- Travelers want sanitation and lenient change policies to continue
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- Figure 42: Attitudes toward pandemic-era policies, April 2021
- Satisfy current travelers’ demands to encourage the reluctant
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- Figure 43: Attitudes toward pandemic-era policies, by age group and HHI, April 2021
Motivating Travel Holdouts
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- Travel holdouts may be swayed more by upgrades than destinations
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- Figure 44: Trip intentions, April 2021
- Encourage young travelers to make up for lost time in a big way
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- Figure 45: Trip intentions, by age group, April 2021
Desired Travel Activities
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- Emphasize indoor travel activities
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- Figure 46: Eagerness for activities post-pandemic, April 2021
- Show older travelers the restaurant scene, younger ones the social scene
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- Figure 47: Eagerness for activities post-pandemic, by age group, April 2021
- Keep high-income travelers abreast of international developments
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- Figure 48: Eagerness for activities post-pandemic, by HHI, April 2021
Post-pandemic Travel
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- COVID-19 is the main barrier to travel, but education is welcome
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- Figure 49: Travel barriers – 2021 vs 2022, April 2021
- Focus on Asian travelers in 2022
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- Figure 50: Travel barriers – 2021 vs 2022, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2021
- Young travelers are in for a busy 2022
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- Figure 51: Travel barriers – 2021 vs 2022, by age group and HHI, April 2021
- Brands need to meet traveler demands for relaxation
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- Figure 52: Attitudes toward post-pandemic travel, April 2021
- Slow and conscious wins over young travelers
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- Figure 53: Attitudes toward post-pandemic travel, by age, April 2021
- Appeal to travel-hungry, but value-oriented Black and Hispanic travelers
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- Figure 54: Attitudes toward post-pandemic travel, April 2021
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Sales and forecasts
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- Figure 55: Total US sales and forecast of travel, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 56: Total US sales and forecast of travel, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 57: US passenger airline operating revenue and forecast, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 58: US passenger airline operating revenue and forecast, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 59: Total US revenues and forecast for hotels and other traveler accommodations, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 60: Total US revenues and forecast for hotels and other traveler accommodations, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 61: Number of cruise passengers sourced from the US, 2015-25
Scenario Forecast Data
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- Figure 62: Scenario forecast for travel, 2020-25
- Figure 63: Scenario forecast for airlines, 2015-25
- Figure 64: Scenario forecast for airlines, 2015-25
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- Figure 65: Scenario forecast for accommodations, 2015-25
- Figure 66: Scenario forecast for accommodations, 2015-25
- Figure 67: Scenario forecast for cruise passengers, 2015-25
- Figure 68: Scenario forecast for cruise passengers, 2015-25
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COVID-19 Data
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- Figure 69: COVID-19 cases in the US reported to CDC, by age group, Jan. 22, 2020-May 19, 2021
- Figure 70: COVID-19 deaths in the US reported to CDC, by age group, Jan. 22, 2020-May 19, 2021
- Figure 71: COVID-19 cases in the US reported to CDC, by race/ethnicity, Jan. 22, 2020-May 19, 2021
- Figure 72: COVID-19 deaths in the US reported to CDC, by race/ethnicity, Jan. 22, 2020-May 19, 2021
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- Figure 73: COVID-19 cumulative case rate per 100,000 population in the US, by percentage of county population in poverty, January 23, 2021-May 18, 2021
- Figure 74: COVID-19 cumulative death rate per 100,000 population in the US, by percentage of county population in poverty, January 23, 2021-May 18, 2021
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 75: Conditions that increase comfort in travel, by age group, March 2021
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- Figure 76: Conditions that increase comfort in travel, by HHI, March 2021
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- Figure 77: Reasons to travel post-pandemic, by age group, May 2020
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- Figure 78: Comfort with travel activities, by age group, May 2020
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