Table of Contents
Overview
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- Key issues covered in this Report
- COVID-19: Market context
- Economic and other assumptions
- Products covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on lunch out-of-home
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- Figure 1: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on lunch out-of-home, 19 May 2021
- The market
- Consumer confidence has held up well
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- Figure 2: Trends in consumer sentiment for the coming year, April 2009-April 2021
- Companies and brands
- Greggs to become a carbon-neutral business by 2025
- Compass Group pivots to WFH lunch occasions
- Pret’s disruptive recovery and expansion strategies
- The consumer
- Multiple takeaway formats help foodservice diversify lunch traffic
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- Figure 3: Lunch out-of-home purchase methods, April 2021
- Most lunch consumers have ordered a takeaway from a fast food outlet
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- Figure 4: Lunch takeaway venues used, April 2021
- Under-25s skipping breakfasts and having late lunches
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- Figure 5: Lunch out-of-home visit preferences, April 2021
- Sustain time-tested recipes and continue to innovate with new flavours
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- Figure 6: Lunch out-of-home menu preferences, April 2021
- Affordable out-of-home lunches much needed to stay competitive
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- Figure 7: Lunch out-of-home purchase drivers, April 2021
- Cater to those who have acquired a taste for premium foods
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- Figure 8: Lunch out-of-home behaviours, April 2021
- Home deliveries allow consumers to stretch their budgets further
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- Figure 9: Lunch out-of-home attitudes, April 2021
- Digital transformation accelerates demand for micro-markets
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- Figure 10: Lunch out-of-home behaviours, by availability of workplace canteen, April 2021
Issues and Insights
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- What does a post-pandemic lunch experience look like…
- … back at the workplace?
- …working remotely?
- Responding to younger consumers’ lunch habits
- Weekends is where it’s at
- Filling up with late lunches
- Rotating menu options
- Meat-free lunches
- Strike a balance between affordable and premium choices
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Consumer confidence has held up well
- Wider consumer demand for indoor dining will take some time to rebound
- Most grab-and-go lunchtime foods would fall into the scope of Natasha’s Law
- Workplace safety measures have altered staff canteens
Market Drivers
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- Diversify takeaway formats to top up earnings
- Barriers to eating lunch out-of-home
- Consumer confidence has held up well, but many face risk of unemployment
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- Figure 11: Trends in consumer sentiment for the coming year, April 2009-April 2021
- Impact of job losses
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- Figure 12: Unemployment rate forecast, 2020-25
- Impact of national reopening of indoor vs outdoor dining
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- Figure 13: Sitting outdoors vs indoors participation plans, April 2021
- Impact of Natasha’s Law on operators
- Impact of long-term remote working
- Eating main meals at home
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- Figure 14: Food behaviours towards eating the main meal of the day at home, April 2016-March 2021
- Catering to a dispersed workforce
- Impact of social distancing in the workplace on staff canteens
- Implications of relaxed takeaway regulations
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Pret’s disruptive recovery and expansion strategies
- Just Eat Takeaway.com grows global market share
- EG Group aims to drive LEON to succeed on the superhighway
- Greggs to become a carbon-neutral business by 2025
- Compass Group pivots to WFH lunch occasions
- Subway x Walkers drive emotional connections
Competitive Strategies and Market Share
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- Subway leads the sandwich/grab-and-go market
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- Figure 15: Selected lunch foodservice brands, by number of outlets, 2012-21
- Pret’s disruptive recovery and expansion strategies
- The use of loss-leader pricing to boost footfall
- Delivery-only services to help expand into new locations
- Tesco partnership expands its reach beyond the high street
- Just Eat Takeaway.com grows global market share
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- Figure 16: Selected third-party delivery services, by number of restaurant partners (worldwide), 2019-21
- Deliveroo was still unprofitable in 2020
- Uber Eats becomes a restaurant support system
- Applegreen operates largest forecourt estate
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- Figure 17: Selected motorway service operators, by number of motorway service stations, 2020/21
- EG Group aims to drive LEON to succeed on the superhighway
- Impact of Obesity Strategy on Roadchef’s drive-through plans
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Voluntary carbon-neutral actions first step to greener foodservices
- LEON adds carbon-neutral range to its menu
- BrewDog’s Forest carbon offset project in Scotland
- Greggs to become a carbon-neutral business by 2025
- Earn double points on vegan purchases at Le Pain Quotidien
- Drive-through queue management solutions
- Compass Group pivots to WFH lunch occasions
- Subway x Walkers drive emotional connections
- FinTech fuels future of foodservice payments
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 18: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, March 2021
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 19: Key metrics for selected brands, March 2021
- Brand attitudes: Britons hold most positive attitudes towards M&S Simply Food
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- Figure 20: Attitudes, by brand, March 2021
- Brand personality: Greggs most fun and accessible, while M&S Simply Food is most exclusive and ethical
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- Figure 21: Brand personality – Macro image, March 2021
- Subway considered most samey and tacky of all, while LEON is the coolest
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- Figure 22: Brand personality – Micro image, March 2021
- Brand analysis
- M&S Simply Food is the healthier (not cheaper) alternative to foodservice brands
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- Figure 23: User profile of M&S Simply Food, March 2021
- Greggs has strong value-for-money perceptions
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- Figure 24: User profile of Greggs, March 2021
- Subway is not associated with being healthy
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- Figure 25: User profile of Subway, March 2021
- Pret A Manger’s healthier choices yet to cut through
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- Figure 26: User profile of Pret A Manger, March 2021
- LEON is well-poised to be menu trends market leader
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- Figure 27: User profile of Leon, March 2021
- Reading word clouds
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Consumer confidence in cooking will result in fewer out-of-home lunches
- Multiple takeaway formats help foodservice diversify lunch traffic
- Most lunch consumers have ordered a takeaway from a fast food outlet
- Under-25s skipping breakfasts and having late lunches
- Sustain time-tested recipes and continue to innovate with new flavours
- Cater to those who have acquired a taste for premium foods
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour
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- Impact of consumer confidence in cooking lunch at home
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- Figure 28: Consumers' lunch at-home participation in the last month, April 2021
- COVID-19’s lasting impact on takeaway usage
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- Figure 29: Changes in consumer spending more on takeaways/home delivery, 8 December 2020-6 May 2021
- Pre-order and collect starts to click with more Britons
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- Figure 30: Changes in click-and-collect usage,16 April 2020-22 April 2021
Lunch Out-Of-Home Purchase Methods
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- Multiple takeaway formats help foodservice diversify lunch traffic
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- Figure 31: Lunch out-of-home purchase methods, April 2021
Takeaway Venues Used
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- Most lunch consumers have ordered a takeaway from a fast food outlet
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- Figure 32: Lunch takeaway venues used, April 2021
- Sandwich or bakery shops are primed for quick recovery
- Cafés fill the void of coffee shops and restaurants in rural locations
- Supermarket/c-store consumers most likely to order fast food takeaways
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- Figure 33: Lunch takeaway venues used, by overall participation, April 2021
Visit Preferences
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- Young consumers more likely to head out for lunch at the weekend
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- Figure 34: Lunch out-of-home visit preferences, April 2021
- Under-25s skipping breakfasts and having late lunches
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- Figure 35: Proportion of consumers who are skipping breakfast more now than 12 months ago, by age, April 2021
Menu Preferences
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- Sustain time-tested recipes and rotate new flavours
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- Figure 36: Lunch out-of-home menu preferences, April 2021
- Strike a balance between meat and meat-free for “flexitarians”
- Prioritise hot lunches to maximise sales opportunities
Purchase Drivers
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- Affordable out-of-home lunches much needed to stay competitive
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- Figure 37: Lunch out-of-home purchase drivers, April 2021
- Purchase drivers of older consumers
- Link between familiar dish and type of cuisine
- Adapt to older consumers’ hygiene priorities
- Steered by locality of venues
- New lunchtime priorities are emerging
- Diet-specific lunches can fill the hunger gap
- Emerging cross-sell wins
- Healthier food choices
- On the back of drink purchases
- Start adding carbon neutral menu choices
Lunch Out-Of-Home Behaviours
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- Cater to those who have acquired a taste for premium foods
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- Figure 38: Lunch out-of-home behaviours, April 2021
- Lunchbox schemes appeal to young families
- Scope for lunchtime food outlets to operate in retail venues
Attitudes towards Lunch Out-Of-Home
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- Home deliveries allow consumers to stretch their budgets further
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- Figure 39: Attitudes towards lunch out-of-home, April 2021
- COVID-19 spurs operators to explore numerous fulfilment channels
- Convenience
- Safety
Workplace Catering
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- Two fifths of British workers usually have access to workplace canteens
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- Figure 40: Availability of workplace canteen, April 2021
- More than half miss their workplace perks
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- Figure 41: Lunch out-of-home behaviours, by availability of workplace canteen, April 2021
- Contact-free foodservices vital for those returning to the workplace
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- Figure 42: Lunch out-of-home attitudes, by availability of workplace canteen, April 2021
- Fresh food vending machines helpful to three fifths of workers
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- Figure 43: Lunch out-of-home attitudes, by availability of workplace canteen, April 2021
- Digital transformation accelerates demand for micro-markets
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- Figure 44: Lunch out-of-home behaviours, by availability of workplace canteen, April 2021
- Meal kits will cater to a dispersed workforce
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- Figure 45: Lunch out-of-home attitudes, by availability of workplace canteen, April 2021
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
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