The unveiling of the ‘green list’ on 7 May 2021 is likely to have contributed to a further increase in bookings with 19% of consumers booking a holiday in the three months to May. However, the increase was only modest, likely due to the limited number of countries on this list. Bookings for overseas holidays are likely to stall after Portugal moved to the amber list and no countries were added to the green list during the government’s first three-weekly review.

Security (eg financial protection) has become one of consumers’ top three motivations for booking a package holiday, partly driven by their worry of travel companies going bust. Meanwhile, preferring to feel more independent has become a bigger priority for independent bookers over the past year, driven by their desire to visit quieter places where they can avoid mixing with crowds during the pandemic.

The speed of recovery will depend heavily on the easing of restrictions by both the UK government and the destination itself, while a vaccine-resistant mutation of COVID-19 will be disastrous for international travel.

Unprecedented demand for domestic rural escapes will make the UK’s countryside the big winner in 2021, and most of these trips will be booked independently. There is also a surge in demand for luxury holidays due to a larger group of consumers being willing to spend more on travel than they would usually do. These higher value trips are more than twice as likely to be booked as a package than independently.

Key issues covered in this Report

  • The impact of COVID-19 on the package and independent holiday segments

  • Trends in booking behaviour

  • Reasons for booking package vs independent holidays 

  • Holidaying intentions and likely behavioural changes in 2021

COVID-19: Market context

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. Rapidly rising case numbers led to the first national lockdown, starting on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to reopen, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a month-long lockdown from 5 November and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions.

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions further in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown.

On 22 February, Boris Johnson announced the roadmap to an easing of restrictions in England, starting with the reopening of schools on 8 March, followed by easing of restrictions on outdoor gatherings on 29 March and with a hoped end to all restrictions by 21 June. The Welsh and Scottish governments also gave more details on their plans to ease restrictions, with both nations taking a slightly more cautious approach to the one planned for England.

In England domestic holidays in self-contained accommodation were allowed on 12 April, with the rest of the accommodation sector allowed to open on 17 May. Stays remain subject to stage three social mixing rules, which limit indoor gatherings to six people or two households.

On 9 April, the Global Travel Taskforce published a report with recommendations for the restart of international travel, which includes a traffic light system. On 7 May 2021, the UK government revealed the countries rated as red, amber or green and confirmed that international travel will be allowed from England from 17 May. In total, 12 countries had been added to the green list, with Portugal being the only green list destination from the 20-most visited destinations for a package or independently booked holiday. However, during the first three-weekly review, on 3 June, the government announced no countries will be added to the green list at this stage, Portugal will be moved to the amber list from Tuesday 8 June 2021 due to variants of concern and emerging mutations, and seven countries will move from amber to the red list.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, and with the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines licensed for use in the UK. On 19 May, 2021 the government announced that more than 70% of UK adults had received their first dose of the vaccine and that nearly 40% had received their second dose.

Economic and other assumptions

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its March 2021 Economic and Fiscal Outlook Report. After the fall of 9.9% over the course of 2020, the scenario suggests that UK GDP will grow by 4% in 2021 and 7.3% in 2022.

GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until Q2 2022, although this is six months earlier than the OBR forecast in November 2020, mainly because of the faster-than-expected rollout of vaccines.

Unemployment is expected to peak at 6.5% in Q4 2021. As with GDP, this is more positive than the OBR’s November forecast, but the OBR does raise the prospect of long-term scarring on employment, especially in the more exposed retail and hospitality sectors.

An overview of all assumptions used to inform analysis is included in the COVID-19 Scenario Performance section.

Products covered in this Report

This Report examines the habits and attitudes of British adults towards package and independent holidays. Mintel defined a holiday as a stay of at least one night that is primarily for leisure purposes. Business trips and visiting friends or relatives are not included.

Market size and forecasts refer specifically to the overseas holiday market. Mintel’s consumer research also includes data on the domestic holiday market, but the main focus of this Report is holidays abroad.

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel asked a number of questions to UK adults about the ‘main holiday’ they are planning to take in the next 12 months. This was defined as the holiday on which they had spent the most in terms of travel and accommodation.

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