Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on restaurant ordering, takeout and delivery
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on restaurant ordering, takeout and delivery, May 2021
- Challenges and opportunities
- Extended WFH means operators/services have to work harder for traffic
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- Figure 3: Anticipated work situations, April 2021
- Fees keep pickup dominating as on-premise slowly returns
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- Figure 4: Restaurant ordering, pickup and delivery – NETS, September 2019, May 2020, March 2021
- Operator tech-investments can keep Millennials directly engaged
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- Figure 5: Restaurant ordering, pickup and delivery, by generation, May 2020
- Diners anticipate increased dining through a number of channels
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- Figure 6: Expected change in behavior after COVID-19, March 2021
- Gen Zs, Millennials hungry for versatility and convenience
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- Figure 7: Services and innovations that would drive use, by generation, March 2021
- Expectations are for delivery quality, speed
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- Figure 8: Attitudes related to restaurants, delivery and apps, March 2021
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- FSRs bear the brunt of the pandemic
- COVID-19 surcharge fees and caps on fees from third-party companies
Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 9: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
- Takeout and delivery-ready LSRs point to untapped off-premise potential
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- Figure 10: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
- FSRs have ground to gain back share
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- Figure 11: Market share of total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, 2018-20
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Target Audience
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- Diners more likely to increase restaurant engagement through a number of channels
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- Figure 12: Expected change in behavior after COVID-19, March 2021
- Diners under 45 are mixing up ways to order
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- Figure 13: Restaurant ordering, pickup and delivery, by generation, May 2021
Market Factors
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- Lingering COVID concerns still impacting on-premise traffic
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- Figure 14: Comfort level, dining indoors, COVID Tracker, April 29, 2021- May 13, 2021
- Food and drink spending begins to recalibrate
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- Figure 15: Sales of food at home and away from home, January 2010-April 2021
- Less commuting = fewer on-premise occasions
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- Figure 16: Anticipated work situations, April 2021
- Aspirational cooks will cut into dining out, delivery
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- Figure 17: Pandemic-driven changes in behavior, October 2020
- Cutting back on foodservice spending seen as positive
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- Figure 18: Effect of COVID-19 on finances, November 2020
Key Trends – What You Need to Know
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- Restaurants expand and refine pickup/delivery capacity in different ways
- Virtual menus and ghost kitchens expand delivery market
- Third-party Delivery Services offer new services, diversify options
Third-party Delivery Brand Strategies
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- Competitive market expansion, mergers and acquisitions
- Uber Eats launches first ever advertising listing for restaurants
- DoorDash offers self-delivery options, giving chains more flexibility
- Grubhub offers tool for consumers to direct order from restaurants
- DoorDash expands delivery of convenience store items
- Third-party services provide platforms, and in some cases, the actual ghost kitchen
Operator Competitive Strategies
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- Doubling down on drive-thrus and downsizing
- Smart drive-thru upgrades and personalization
- Contactless is the new black
- Better, faster, stronger pickup powered by LSB (location-based service)
- Refreshed digital loyalty programs are a win-win
- Ghost and host kitchens support virtual brands and menus
Market Opportunities
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- Tap into parents in need of convenience, value and experience
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- Figure 19: Expected change in behavior after COVID-19, increased use, by parental status, March 2021
- Streamline, combine digital services to target up and coming users
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- Figure 20: Attitudes related to restaurants, delivery and apps, by generation, March 2021
- Develop programs with Gen Zs, Millennials in mind
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- Figure 21: Services and innovations that would drive usage, by generation, March 2021
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Fast food, casual dining and fast casual most widely used
- Pickup is most widely used service, as on-premise slowly returns
- Interest in contactless delivery and curbside pickup
- Fees stand in the way of increased off-premise programs
Restaurant Dining, Ordering, Pickup and Delivery
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- Diners are adopting new ways of ordering
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- Figure 22: Restaurant ordering, pickup and delivery, March 2021
- Pick up still dominating as on-premise slowly returns
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- Figure 23: Restaurant ordering, pickup and delivery – NETS, September 2019, May 2020, March 2021
- Consumers are diversifying their approach to ordering
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- Figure 24: Restaurant ordering, pickup and delivery, September 2019, May 2020, March 2021
- The future of foodservice is more diverse and fluid
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- Figure 25: Restaurant ordering, pickup and delivery, by generation, May 2020
- Affluence doesn’t limit LSR patronage
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- Figure 26: Restaurant ordering, pickup and delivery, by household income, May 2020
- Online family-friendly offers will resonate with parents
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- Figure 27: Restaurant ordering, pickup and delivery, by parental status, May 2020
Restaurant Ordering by Segment
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- More than three-quarters patronize QSRs
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- Figure 28: Restaurants used in the past three months, March 2021
- Millennials are important, but don’t leave Gens X and Z behind
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- Figure 29: Type of restaurant used, by generation, March 2021
- Convenience + versatility appeal to parents, not necessarily at the same time
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- Figure 30: Type of restaurant used, parental status, March 2021
Ordering Frequency and Method
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- Figure 31: Frequency of use, March 2021
- Heavy users profile
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- Figure 32: Heavy users, by key demographics, March 2021
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On-premise Dining Barriers and Returns
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- About half plan to return in a few months
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- Figure 33: How soon plan to return to dining in restaurants, March 2021
- Millennials are ready to dine on-premise
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- Figure 34: How soon plan to return to dining in restaurants, by generation, March 2021
- Health, not finances, at the root of on-premise avoidance
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- Figure 35: Reasons for not dining in a restaurant, March 2021
- Gen Z and Millennials less likely to prefer cooking at home
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- Figure 36: Reasons for not dining in a restaurant, by generation, March 2021
- Parents need mealtime support, stat
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- Figure 37: Reasons for not dining in a restaurant, by parental status, March 2021
Anticipated Post-pandemic Dining-out Behaviors
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- Many anticipate returning to on-premise dining post-pandemic
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- Figure 38: Expected change in behavior after COVID-19, March 2021
- Increased use of online apps likely to continue beyond the pandemic
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- Figure 39: Expected behavior after COVID-19, online ordering, March 2021
- Millennials plan use of wide range of options post-pandemic
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- Figure 40: Expected increase in behavior after COVID-19, by generation, March 2021
- More affluent also likely to sustain usage of pickup and delivery
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- Figure 41: Expected change in behavior after COVID-19, by household income, March 2021
- Parents plan high use of pickup and delivery post-pandemic
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- Figure 42: Expected change in behavior after COVID-19, by parental status, March 2021
Ordering Method by Occasion and Segment
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- Diners’ Preferred Ordering Method Varies Depending on the Dining Occasion
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- Figure 43: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Ordering method interest by dining occasion, March 2021
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- Figure 44: Ordering method interest, by dining occasion, March 2021
Interest in Delivery/Takeout Innovations
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- Consumers want basic limited contact going forward
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- Figure 45: Services and innovations that would drive use, March 2021
- Contactless is the new convenience
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- Figure 46: TURF analysis – Desired off-premise improvements, March 2021
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- Figure 47: Table - TURF analysis – Desired off-premise improvements, March 2021
- Gen Zs, Millennials want more ways to engage off-premise
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- Figure 48: Services and innovations that would drive usage, by generation, March 2021
Delivery and Takeout Attitudes and Behaviors
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- Fees stand in the way of greater delivery use
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- Figure 49: Behaviors related to restaurants, delivery and apps, March 2021
- Men less sensitive to fees
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- Figure 50: Behaviors related to restaurants, delivery and apps, by gender, March 2021
- Emerging operational trends are driven by Millennials
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- Figure 51: Behaviors related to restaurants, delivery and apps, by generation, March 2021
Delivery Services Attitudes
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- Expectations are for delivery quality, speed
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- Figure 52: Attitudes related to restaurants, delivery and apps, March 2021
- Convenient options can appeal to women through a better experience
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- Figure 53: Behaviors related to restaurants, delivery and apps, by gender, March 2021
- Gen Z, Millennials seek speed, convenience in pickup/delivery
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- Figure 54: Attitudes related to restaurants, delivery and apps, by generation, March 2021
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Sales data
- Forecast methodology
- Consumer survey data
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
- Methodology – correspondence analysis
- TURF Methodology
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