Research for this report shows that in a year of uncertainty the UK’s gardens and outdoor spaces have become more important than ever. 63% of those with access to gardens or outdoor spaces say that they were spending more time in them than before the outbreak, and 32% said that they had taken up gardening as a hobby.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to considerable changes in consumer behaviour, some of which are here to stay. With national lockdowns keeping the UK’s population at home and travel bans stopping international holidays, many consumers turned to their gardens for relaxation and stress relief in 2020. The extension of restrictions into 2021 and continued uncertainty around international travel will likely see the sector experience further growth in the year to come. Garden centres, however, will be keen to fully reopen their profit-generating cafes and restaurants as soon as possible.

Overall, the future looks rosy for the garden product sector but there are potential areas of concern. As with all sectors, online retail has had a disruptive influence on garden product retailing. Online-only non-specialists like Amazon are making in-roads and new digital specialists like Patch Plants are proving popular with younger consumers in particular. Traditional garden product retailers would do well to develop multichannel strategies to compete in the digital space.

The influx of new consumers into the garden product sector represents a huge opportunity for retailers. The 32% of respondents who said they had taken up gardening as a hobby tend to be younger and, if a fraction of these consumers continue gardening for the rest of their lives, they represent a significant source of income. Retailers should look at ways to encourage these newcomers through easy-to-follow advice and support. Schemes focusing on easy-care plants and gardens designed for urban dwelling will likely do particularly well.

• The continuing impact of COVID-19 on consumer behaviour and the garden products sector

• How UK consumers shop for garden products and what they buy

• The performance and popularity of key channels for garden product retailing

• Attitudes towards gardens and outdoor spaces

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. Rapidly rising case numbers led to the first national lockdown, starting on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to reopen, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a month-long lockdown from 5 November and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions.

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions further in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown.

On 22 February, Boris Johnson announced the roadmap to an easing of restrictions in England, starting with the reopening of schools on 8 March, followed by the easing of restrictions on outdoor gatherings on 29 March, and with a hoped end to all restrictions by 21 June. The Welsh and Scottish governments also gave more details on their plans to ease restrictions, with both nations taking a slightly more cautious approach to the one planned for England.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, and with the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines licenced for use in the UK, the government aims to have offered a first dose of the vaccine to all adults by the end of July.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its March 2021 Economic and Fiscal Outlook Report. After the fall of 9.9% over the course of 2020, the scenario suggests that UK GDP will grow by 4% in 2021 and 7.3% in 2022.

GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until the second quarter of 2022, although this is six months earlier than the OBR forecast in November 2020, mainly because of the faster than expected rollout of vaccines.

Unemployment is expected to peak at 6.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021. As with GDP, this is more positive than the OBR’s November forecast, but the OBR does raise the prospect of long-term scarring on employment, especially in the more exposed retail and hospitality sectors.

The current successful rollout of the UK’s vaccination scheme has enabled the country to plan a relaxation of the current lockdown over the next few months. The government announced its roadmap for ending the restrictions on 22 February. 8 March marked the start of a gradual relaxation of restrictions, with 21 June earmarked as the date all restrictions are to be lifted. At the time of writing, from 8 April, non-essential stores have been able to reopen and food service companies can serve food in open-air seating areas. The government is hoping that its cautious approach will lead to a return to more normal conditions over the summer and into autumn.

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definitions:

There is a broad definition of gardening used in this report, covering growing stock, gardening tools and sundries to those consumer products bought for the garden such as furniture, barbecues and sheds. The main categories and their broad definitions break down as follows:

• Growing stock – plants, shrubs, trees, bulbs, seeds

• Gardening equipment – lawnmowers, other power tools, hand tools, irrigation equipment

• Garden buildings – conservatories, sheds, greenhouses

• Garden chemicals and growing media – compost, peat, chippings, fertiliser, pesticides, weed killers

• Garden furniture and barbecues – furniture, parasols, patio heaters, cushions, barbecues

• Enhancement features and sundries – statuary, aggregates, etc

This report also refers to other products stocked and services provided by garden retailers (such as Christmas decorations, pets and cafés) to develop footfall and counteract the seasonality in gardening.