59% of world cuisine eaters and buyers have tried to make a meal from scratch in the three months to March 2021, which they had previously bought as a ready meal. The decline in ready meal sales during the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates the threat that increased interest in cooking poses to this segment. Meanwhile, this looks set to provide continued momentum to categories catering for part- and scratch cooking.

The new lockdowns in early 2021 have continued to fuel evenings-in and other opportunities for world cuisine brands. As COVID-19 restrictions ease, the reopening of foodservice establishments will increase competition for world cuisine at home once more. However, cautious spending among some consumers and ongoing restrictions on travel are likely to continue to support the market in 2021.

The increased consumer and government focus on health in light of COVID-19 will pressure world cuisine products to improve their healthiness. 70% of people who eat and buy world cuisine at home say a wider range of healthier options would encourage them to eat these cuisines more often. While this interest points to concerns about the permissibility of the current offering, it offers a compelling signal that NPD in this space can keep these cuisines on the menu.

Meal kits that teach a skill hold untapped potential, with 62% of world cuisine eaters and buyers saying they would like to see more of these. With many people saying they improved their cooking skills during the COVID-19 lockdown, world cuisine brands can tap into the increased interest in cooking from scratch brought about by the pandemic through kits.

• The impact of COVID-19 on the world cuisines market

• Launch activity in 2020 and opportunities for 2021

• Factors that would encourage people to spend more on a world cuisine product

• Consumer behaviours and attitudes related to world cuisines

• Sources of inspiration for trying a new world cuisine dish/product at home

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. Rapidly rising case numbers led to the first national lockdown, starting on 23 March. It was not until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to reopen, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a month-long lockdown from 5 November and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions.

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions further in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown.

On 22 February, Boris Johnson announced the roadmap to an easing of restrictions in England, starting with the reopening of schools on 8 March, followed by easing of restrictions on outdoor gatherings on 29 March. 12 April saw the reopening of non-essential retail, indoor leisure facilities and hospitality venues for outdoor service only. At the time of writing, further easing on limits on hospitality venues are expected to be lifted on 17 May, enabling restaurants and cafés to provide indoor service, with a hoped end to all restrictions by 21 June. The Welsh and Scottish governments also gave more details on their plans to ease restrictions, with both nations taking a slightly more cautious approach to the one planned for England.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, with the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines licenced for use in the UK. At the time of writing, the government had offered 67.8% of the adult population a first dose of the vaccine, on course to meet its target of offering every adult a first dose by the end of July.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its March 2021 Economic and Fiscal Outlook Report. After the fall of 9.9% over the course of 2020, the scenario suggests that UK GDP will grow by 4% in 2021 and 7.3% in 2022.

GDP is not expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until the second quarter of 2022, although this is six months earlier than the OBR forecast in November 2020, mainly because of the faster than expected rollout of vaccines.

Unemployment is expected to peak at 6.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021. As with GDP, this is more positive than the OBR’s November forecast, but the OBR does raise the prospect of long-term scarring on employment, especially in the more exposed retail and hospitality sectors.

This Report examines the UK retail market for world cuisine foods. For the purpose of this Report, world foods are defined as beyond European and North American foods.

The market size covers the following types of cuisines:

• Chinese food – includes Peking, Cantonese and other Chinese variations

• Indian food

• Mexican/Tex-Mex food

• Other Oriental/international food

The following food categories are covered in the market size:

• Ready meals – ambient, chilled and frozen ready meals. This also includes meal kits, chilled and ambient, which contain ingredients for specific ethnic dishes.

• Cooking sauces – wet sauces (including pour-over and stir-fry), cooking pastes and dry sauces that are added to vegetables, meat or fish, in jars, tins or sachets/pouches.

• Accompaniments/ingredients – Chinese crackers, chutneys and pickles, poppadoms, salsa, condiments/sauces, seasonings/spices, breads (including naan, chapattis, tortillas), Mexican chips/taco shells and other ethnic cooking ingredients (eg coconut milk/cream).

Rice/noodles and pot noodles are excluded from the market size unless part of a ready meal/meal kit and are covered in Mintel’s Pasta, Rice and Noodles: Inc Impact of COVID-19 – UK, February 2021 Report.

Sales through restaurants and takeaways are excluded.