Three in 10 female clothes shoppers have purchased second-hand garments in the last 12 months. While consumer spending on buying new clothes has declined over the last year, the second-hand clothing market is booming, driven by a trend for vintage fashion and a thriftier approach to shopping, with 43% of women agreeing that the price of clothes has become more important compared with prior to the pandemic.

COVID-19 has hit the womenswear market hard, leading to a 13.5% decline in consumer spending on women’s clothing in 2020. Women have drastically cut back on their clothes purchasing because of changes to their lifestyles, removing the main drivers for buying new items. Consumer spending on womenswear has fallen to levels last seen in 2015, and while there will be pent-up demand for buying new clothes, we expect it to take several years for spending to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels.

The biggest threat to the market comes from changes in the shopping behaviour and spending power of young women aged 16-24, who have typically been the main clothes buyers. This demographic has been the hardest hit financially as a result of the pandemic. This uncertainty will impact their spending on clothing, and together with a declining interest in following the latest fashion trends, poses a significant threat to the youth fashion market.

However, there are also major opportunities as the most affluent AB females and those with a higher household income are more likely than average to have purchased clothing in the last 12 months. There is scope to appeal to these higher spenders with unique products and more personalised shopping experiences. As stores reopened on 12 April 2021, we have seen the launch of more destination fashion concept stores such as Farfetch’s Browns store in Mayfair that combines retail with beauty and styling services, as well as a changing programme of cultural events.

• The impact of COVID-19 and the third national lockdown on the womenswear market.

• What channels women use to shop for clothes for themselves and what types of retailers they buy from.

• How women’s shopping behaviour has changed since COVID-19.

• Changes in women’s priorities when buying clothes compared with 12 months ago.

• Women’s views on inclusivity and diversity in fashion.

This update on the impact that COVID-19 is having on the market was prepared on 4 May 2021.

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. Rapidly rising case numbers led to the first national lockdown, starting on 23 March. It was not until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to reopen, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a month-long lockdown from 5 November and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions.

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions further in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown.

On 22 February, Boris Johnson announced the roadmap to an easing of restrictions in England, starting with the reopening of schools on 8 March, followed by the easing of restrictions on outdoor gatherings on 29 March and with a hoped end to all restrictions by 21 June. The Welsh and Scottish governments also gave more details on their plans to ease restrictions, with both nations taking a slightly more cautious approach to the one planned for England.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, with the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines licensed for use in the UK. By mid-May 2021, around two thirds of the population have had a first dose, and a third have had a second dose.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its March 2021 Economic and Fiscal Outlook Report. After the fall of 9.9% over the course of 2020, the scenario suggests that UK GDP will grow by 4% in 2021 and 7.3% in 2022.

GDP is not expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until Q2 2022, although this is six months earlier than the OBR forecast in November 2020, mainly because of the faster-than-expected rollout of vaccines.

Unemployment is expected to peak at 6.5% in Q4 2021. As with GDP, this is more positive than the OBR’s November forecast, but the OBR does raise the prospect of long-term scarring on employment, especially in the more exposed retail and hospitality sectors.

This Report examines the UK womenswear market. It predominantly looks at the women’s clothing market, but the market size excludes underwear, footwear and fashion accessories, although these categories may be discussed where relevant.