Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on BPC
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- Figure 1: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on BPC, 30 April 2021
- The market
- A slow but steady recovery forecast for BPC
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- Figure 2: Forecast for the value of the UK BPC market (prepared 30 April 2021), at current prices, 2015-25
- The consumer
- Speedy routines will boost demand for time and ease-of-use claims
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- Figure 3: Change in time spent on daily beauty/grooming routine compared to before COVID-19, March 2021
- Consumers have gained confidence in their DIY capabilities
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- Figure 4: Beauty/grooming routine changes since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, March 2021
- The desire for a natural look will outlast the pandemic
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- Figure 5: Planned changes to beauty/grooming routines once COVID-19 is no longer a concern, March 2021
- Compelling online experiences will resonate more than ever before
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- Figure 6: Channels used to purchase beauty/grooming products since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, March 2021
- Buying BPC continues to lift the mood for consumers
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- Figure 7: Beauty/grooming purchase motivations since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, March 2021
- Value and efficacy will be more important post-pandemic
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- Figure 8: Change in priorities when purchasing beauty/grooming products since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, March 2021
COVID-19 Consumer Timeline
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- Phase 1 – January-March 2020 – Consumers go into lockdown
- Phase 2 – March-June 2020 – Adapting to life in lockdown
- What it meant for BPC
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- Figure 9: Recorded daily number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and deaths registered as relating to the virus, 30 January-31 August 2020
- Phase 3 – June-September 2020 – Emerging from the initial lockdown
- What it meant for BPC
- Phase 4 – September-December 2020 – Rise of the next wave
- What it meant for BPC
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- Figure 10: Recorded daily number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, 30 January 2020-28 March 2021
- Phase 5 – January-March 2021 – Winter lockdown and vaccine rollout
- What it meant for BPC
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- Figure 11: Cumulative number of first and second vaccines delivered in the UK, 10 January-4 April 2021
- Phase 6 – March 2021 onwards – The roadmap out of lockdown
- What it meant for BPC
BPC Winners and Losers
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- SBS outperformed as hygiene concerns boosted demand
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- Figure 12: Behaviours related to using soap, bath and shower products in the last six months, October 2020
- Demand for facial and body skincare proved resilient
- Smaller brands and retailers benefited from the shift online
- The impact of salon closures was polarised
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- Figure 13: Intentions to colour hair at home in the next 12 months, by new and existing at-home hair colour users, October 2020
- Colour cosmetics was the hardest-hit BPC category
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- Figure 14: BPC categories that have seen a reduction in consumer spending since the start of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 18-30 June 2020
- Travel disruption exacerbated the challenges for fragrances and suncare
- Relaxed personal care habits subdued demand
- Own-label struggled amidst retail upheaval
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- Figure 15: BPC brand types purchased in the last 12 months, October 2019 and October 2020
The Post-pandemic Outlook for BPC
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- Shift from colour cosmetics to facial skincare will stick
- Continued homeworking will influence demand
- Spend in certain categories will be reliant on travel’s recovery
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- Figure 16: Planned or intended destination for 2021 holiday travel, 4-12 March 2021
- Responding to trends will determine success in haircare
- Value and efficacy will be front of mind for consumers
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- Figure 17: Trends in current financial situation compared with a year ago, 11-23 March 2021
- Purpose-driven brands will resonate
- Masstige brands will benefit from the lipstick effect
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- Figure 18: Byredo makeup, 2020
- Retail disruption in 2020 will have a lasting impact
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- Figure 19: Next Beauty & Home Store, Milton Keynes, 2020
The Economic Impact
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- A record drop in economic activity…
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- Figure 20: Annual percentage change in GDP, 2007-25 (fore)
- …as COVID-19 restrictions caused a severe fall in spending
- Consumer spending is heavily dependent on the path of the pandemic
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- Figure 21: Household consumption index, 2019-25 (scenario forecasts)
- Furloughs have saved millions of jobs…
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- Figure 22: Number of employments furloughed, time series, March 2020-February 2021
- …but unemployment is forecast to rise when state support ends
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- Figure 23: Quarterly unemployment rate, Q1 2008-Q1 2026 (fore)
- Under-25s have taken the brunt of COVID-19 job losses
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- Figure 24: Change in number of employees on payroll, by age, February 2021 vs February 2020
- BPC – Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 25: Value sales of BPC products (excluding professional services), 2007-12
BPC Market Size
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- The impact of COVID-19 on BPC
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- Figure 26: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the UK BPC market, 30 April 2021
- Some categories were struggling prior to the pandemic
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- Figure 27: Value of the UK BPC market, at current and constant prices, 2015-20
- Value decline in 2021 was significant, but professional services took the brunt
- The impact of lockdown has softened over time
BPC Market Forecast
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- There will be some recovery in 2021, but not all spend will return
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- Figure 28: Forecast for the value of the UK BPC market (prepared 30 April 2021), at current prices, 2015-25
- Value sales unlikely to reach pre-pandemic levels in the next five years
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- Figure 29: Forecast for the value of the UK BPC market (prepared 30 April 2021), at current and constant prices, 2020-25
COVID-19 Scenario Planning
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- Mintel’s approach to predicting the impact of COVID-19
- Fundamental differences in how COVID-19 is affecting consumer markets
- The risk of vaccine-resistant strains of COVID-19 adds huge uncertainty
- A slow emergence will cement BPC trends adopted in the short term
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- Figure 30: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the UK BPC market (prepared 30 April 2021), 2015-25
- Rapid progress in fighting COVID-19 will rebuild BPC usage occasions
- COVID-19 market disruption: risks and outcomes
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- Figure 31: Summary of Mintel scenario expectations and the impact on the BPC market, April 2021
Consumer Concerns over the Impact on Health
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- Exposure anxieties align with case numbers
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- Figure 32: Mintel COVID-19 exposure anxiety and lifestyle impact index, 28 February 2020-12 March 2021
- Exposure anxiety typically higher among over-55s
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- Figure 33: Proportion of adults indicating higher levels of anxiety (‘4’ or ‘5’) towards being exposed to the coronavirus, by age, 28 February 2020-12 March 2021
- Middle-age band fear transmitting virus
Consumer Concerns over the Impact on Lifestyles
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- Concerns about lifestyles impact outweigh exposure fears
- Consumers react to unprecedented lifestyle restrictions
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- Figure 34: Mintel COVID-19 exposure anxiety and lifestyle impact index, 28 February 2020-12 March 2021
- Lifestyle impact concerns high across all age groups
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- Figure 35: Proportion of adults indicating higher levels of anxiety (‘4’ or ‘5’) about how the outbreak could impact their lifestyle, by age, 28 February 2020-26 March 2021
Impact on Household Finances
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- Financial wellbeing has hit new heights despite the crisis…
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- Figure 36: The financial wellbeing index, January 2015-March 2021
- …but many still feel worse off than a year ago
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- Figure 37: Changes in household finances, January 2015-March 2021
- One in six have been furloughed at least once
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- Figure 38: Impact of COVID-19 on employment and working patterns, February 2021
- Income trends point to a two-track crisis and recovery
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- Figure 39: Impact of COVID-19 on personal income, February 2021
- Cuts to discretionary spending have kept household finances afloat…
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- Figure 40: Impact of COVID-19 on household debts and spending, February 2021
- …and led to a record savings boost
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- Figure 41: Impact of COVID-19 on the value of savings in different products, February 2021
- Most are optimistic about the year ahead…
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- Figure 42: The financial confidence index, January 2015-March 2021
- …and looking forward to getting back to experiences
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- Figure 43: Financial priorities when COVID-19 is no longer a concern, February 2021
How the Pandemic Shaped Consumer Behaviour
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- Attitudes towards personal appearance have relaxed
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- Figure 44: Change in priorities since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, 4-12 February 2021
- Behavioural shifts have impacted spend on BPC
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- Figure 45: Spend on consumer goods compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak, 1-12 April 2021
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- Figure 46: Spend on beauty products and toiletries compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak, December 2020-April 2021
- The online purchase of BPC mainstreamed in 2020
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- Figure 47: Changes in online beauty/grooming purchasing since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, June 2020
- Lockdown shopping trends have altered over time
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- Figure 48: Change in shopping behaviours since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, April 2020 and April 2021
- Consumers are now keen to return to hair and beauty salons
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- Figure 49: Activities consumers are looking forward to following the lockdown, 1-12 April 2021
- An economic downturn will drive savvy shopping behaviours
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- Figure 50: Ways in which BPC spending habits will change in the face of an income squeeze, 18-30 June 2020
- Physical and mental health have gained importance
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- Figure 51: Planned changes to consumer behaviour once COVID-19 is no longer a concern, 18 February-2 March 2021
Changes in Daily Beauty and Grooming Routines
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- Respond to the heightened desire for a speedy routine
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- Figure 52: Change in time spent on daily beauty/grooming routine compared to before COVID-19, March 2021
- Reimagine daily beauty and grooming timings
- Use stores to strengthen BPC’s ties to wellbeing
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- Figure 53: Change in time spent on daily beauty/grooming routine compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak, by age and gender, March 2021
- Help women embrace a natural beauty aesthetic
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- Figure 54: Beauty/grooming routine changes since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, by gender, March 2021
- Tap into new DIY capabilities and wellbeing engagement
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- Figure 55: Beauty/grooming routine changes since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, by change in time spent on daily routines, March 2021
- Recognise that lockdown habits have longevity
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- Figure 56: Planned changes to beauty/grooming routines once COVID-19 is no longer a concern, March 2021
Channels Used to Purchase Beauty and Grooming Products
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- Explore new ways of selling BPC online
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- Figure 57: Channels used to purchase beauty/grooming products since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, by gender, March 2021
- Create a more compelling online experience for men
- Put a spotlight on own-label in-store and online
- Make online shopping easier for older shoppers
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- Figure 58: Channels used to purchase beauty/grooming products since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, by age, March 2021
Motivations behind Beauty and Grooming Purchases
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- Help consumers navigate the return of social occasions
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- Figure 59: Beauty/grooming purchase motivations since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, March 2021
- Be creative to tap into the lipstick effect
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- Figure 60: Beauty/grooming purchase motivations since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, by gender, March 2021
- Cater to the growing demand for responsive BPC
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- Figure 61: Beauty/grooming purchase motivations since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, by age, March 2021
The Impact on the Beauty and Grooming Shopping Experience
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- Invest in stores as consumers crave retail experiences
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- Figure 62: Beauty/grooming purchase disruption since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, March 2021
- Explore new ways to provide in-store product trials
- Create a more compelling environment for gift buying in 2021
- Marry the online and offline experience
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- Figure 63: Beauty/grooming purchase disruption since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, by age, March 2021
Priority Shifts in Beauty and Grooming Purchases
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- Embrace the consumer desire for value
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- Figure 64: Change in priorities when purchasing beauty/grooming products since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, March 2021
- Tackle availability with online marketplaces
- The pandemic was a call to action for young consumers
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- Figure 65: Change in eco/ethical priorities when purchasing beauty/grooming products since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, by age, March 2021
- Target young women with ease and enjoyment claims
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- Figure 66: Change in product priorities when purchasing beauty/grooming products since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak amongst women, by age, March 2021
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Central Forecast Methodology
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- Market forecast and prediction intervals
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- Figure 67: Forecast for the value of the UK BPC market, 2015-25
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 68: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2020-24 (prepared 12 March 2021)
- Forecast methodology
Appendix – COVID-19 Scenario Performance Methodology and Assumptions
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- Scenario performance
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- Figure 69: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the UK BPC market, 2015-25
- Rapid COVID-19 recovery, central and extended COVID-19 disruption scenarios outline
- Scenario methodology
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