Whilst COVID-19 has created significant challenges for BPC, the lipstick effect continues to drive demand as 51% of BPC consumers have bought beauty/grooming products since the start of the pandemic to treat themselves or to boost their mood.

However, the reduction in social occasions during the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted usage and spend across several BPC categories, with fragrances and colour cosmetics amongst the hardest hit. As social occasions return, demand will recover, but there will be residual effects as consumers have embraced a lower-maintenance approach to beauty and grooming.

The biggest threat facing the BPC market post-pandemic will be price competition. Consumers are looking for value, and growth in the online channel will exacerbate the issue as it aids price comparison behaviours, making it easier for BPC consumers to buy lower-priced products.

Innovation will buoy demand as BPC consumers remain willing to spend where there is a perceived return on investment, with 35% of BPC consumers saying how effective a product is has gained importance since the start of the pandemic. This means the biggest opportunity is asserting product efficacy through data and science-backed claims.

Key issues covered in this Report

  • The impact of COVID-19 on the UK BPC market size and forecast.

  • How the pandemic and economic disruption has shaped consumer behaviour.

  • The long-term implications of beauty and grooming routine changes.

  • The outlook for BPC retailing, including online and offline opportunities.

  • Post-pandemic priorities when buying beauty and grooming products.

Products and services covered in this Report

This Report examines the UK beauty and personal care market for men and women aged 16 and over. It covers:

  • Beauty – including colour cosmetics, facial skincare, fragrances and hair colourants as well as professional services which include hair services provided within barbershops and hairdressing establishments and beauty services provided by spas, salons and in traditional retail outlets such as department stores.

  • Personal care – including haircare, hand and body products, hair removal, suncare and everyday toiletries such as oral hygiene, bathing and deodorants.

The beauty and personal care market size includes all of the above.

COVID-19 market context

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. Rapidly rising case numbers led to the first national lockdown, starting on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to reopen, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July, and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a month-long lockdown from 5 November and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions.

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown.

On 22 February, Boris Johnson announced the roadmap to an easing of restrictions in England, starting with the reopening of schools on 8 March, followed by easing of restrictions on outdoor gatherings on 29 March and with a hoped end to all restrictions by 21 June. The Welsh and Scottish governments also gave more details on their plans to ease restrictions, with both nations taking a slightly more cautious approach to the one planned for England.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, and with the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines licensed for use in the UK, the government aims to offer a first dose of the vaccine to 32 million people by mid-April.

Economic and other assumptions

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the OBR’s central scenario included in its March 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Report. After the fall of 9.9% over the course of 2020, the scenario suggests that UK GDP will grow by 4% in 2021 and 7.3% in 2022.

GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID levels until Q2 2022, although this is six months earlier than the OBR forecast in November 2020, mainly because of the faster-than-expected rollout of vaccines.

Unemployment is expected to peak at 6.5% in Q4 2021. As with GDP, this is more positive than the OBR’s November forecast, but the OBR does raise the prospect of long-term scarring on employment, especially in the more exposed retail and hospitality sectors.

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