The pandemic has increased people’s desire to take the holiday they have always dreamt of, such as a round-the-world trip. In March 2021, 17% of UK travellers planned to take a holiday of a lifetime once the coronavirus outbreak is over, up from 10% who were planning to take such a trip prior to COVID-19.

Due to ongoing uncertainty about the lifting of international travel restrictions, staycations have started to feel a safer option to more people. Confidence in international travel will take time to fully recover and as a result, the value of domestic holidays is expected to reach record heights over the next two years. Reconnecting with family and friends will be a key travel motivation when restrictions are relaxed, while those in a healthy financial situation will be looking to treat themselves by choosing more luxurious options than they usually do.

The speed of the recovery of the holiday market will be heavily dependent upon when and to what extent overseas travel restrictions are relaxed. The continuation of enforced testing and/or quarantine measures would be a significant barrier for many potential travellers, whilst the emergence of new, vaccine-resistant strains of COVID-19 would make governments more hesitant to allow non-essential travel to or from affected regions.

Nature-based and coastal breaks have high growth potential as many consumers will continue to opt for quieter areas to visit once restrictions are relaxed. Receiving the coronavirus vaccine would make travellers feel comfortable about returning to popular or busy holiday destinations though, providing optimism for hard-hit segments such as cruises, group tours and city breaks.

• The impact of COVID-19 on the UK travel market.

• Trends in booking behaviour.

• Holidaying intentions and likely behavioural changes in 2021.

• Attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccines and travel.

• Longer-term travel trends.

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. Rapidly rising case numbers led to the first national lockdown, starting on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to reopen, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a month-long lockdown from 5 November and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions.

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions further in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown.

On 22 February, Boris Johnson announced the roadmap to an easing of restrictions in England, starting with the reopening of schools on 8 March, followed by easing of restrictions on outdoor gatherings on 29 March and with a hoped end to all restrictions by 21 June. The Welsh and Scottish governments also gave more details on their plans to ease restrictions, with both nations taking a slightly more cautious approach to the one planned for England.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, and with the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines licensed for use in the UK, the government aims to offer a first dose of the vaccine to 32 million people by mid-April.

The UK government’s roadmap states that domestic holidays in self-contained accommodation will be allowed from 12 April, for use by members of the same household, as long as four conditions are met. These include the vaccine rollout going smoothly, no surge in hospital admissions, evidence to show vaccines are working at reducing deaths and hospital treatment and that new variants do not threaten any of the above. The rest of the accommodation sector may be allowed to open from 17 May, but will be subject to stage three social mixing rules, which limit indoor gatherings to six people or two households.

On 9 April, the Global Travel Taskforce published a report with recommendations for the restart of international travel, which includes a traffic light system. By early May the government will announce the restart date, which will be no earlier than 17 May, and confirm which countries will fall into which category (see COVID-19 Consumer Timeline).

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its March 2021 Economic and Fiscal Outlook Report. After the fall of 9.9% over the course of 2020, the scenario suggests that UK GDP will grow by 4% in 2021 and 7.3% in 2022.

GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until Q2 2022, although this is six months earlier than the OBR forecast in November 2020, mainly because of the faster-than-expected rollout of vaccines.

Unemployment is expected to peak at 6.5% in Q4 2021. As with GDP, this is more positive than the OBR’s November forecast, but the OBR does raise the prospect of long-term scarring on employment, especially in the more exposed retail and hospitality sectors.

This Report examines the habits and attitudes of British adults aged 16 or over towards holiday-taking in the UK and abroad. For the purposes of this Report, Mintel defined a holiday as a stay of at least one night that is primarily for leisure purposes. Business trips and visiting friends or relatives are not included.