Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on seasonal shopping
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- Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on seasonal shopping, April 2021
- The market
- Consumer spending significantly down as events are celebrated in lockdown
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- Figure 2: Estimated consumer spending on the autumn/winter retail events, 2019/20 and 2020/21
- Autumn has biggest share of retail sales
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- Figure 3: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by season, 2020
- Impact of lockdowns on retail sales becomes clear
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- Figure 4: Annual percentage change in all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2018-20
- Value of online sales sees significant uptick in 2020
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- Figure 5: Value of all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2019 and 2020
- Consumers fear impact of Brexit on household income
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- Figure 6: Brexit impact on household income, March 2021
- Companies and brands
- Adspend drops in 2020 as marketing moves indoors
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- Figure 7: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by month, 2019 and 2020
- Digital benefits from consumers spending more time indoors
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- Figure 8: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by media type, as a % of total spending, 2019 and 2020
- Retailers encourage safe seasonal shopping habits
- The consumer
- Halloween and Bonfire purchasing holds up well
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- Figure 9: What they buy for Halloween and Bonfire Night, 2019 and 2020
- Parents focus spending to support remote learning
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- Figure 10: Average amount spent on Back-to-School items, 2019 and 2020
- Back-to-School shopping moves online
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- Figure 11: How they shopped for Back-to-School items, September 2020
- Valentine’s Day celebrations move indoors
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- Figure 12: Valentine’s Day activities, March 2020
- Shoppers get personal this Valentine’s Day
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- Figure 13: Valentine’s Day behaviours, March 2020
Issues and Insights
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- Impact of COVID-19 on seasonal shopping
- Back-to-School spending down amidst uncertainty
- Halloween/Bonfire Night are used as an excuse to spend time with family
- Valentine’s Day celebrations move indoors
- Shift to online gift and product buying for seasonal events
- Back-to-School parents expected to return to stores
- Halloween/Bonfire Night purchases captured by essential retailers
- Valentine’s Day shoppers gift from a distance
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Leading categories are a mixed bag
- Online sales take up a third of all retail sales during lockdown
- Brexit fears linger
Market Size and Segmentation
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- The impact of COVID-19 on seasonal shopping
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- Figure 14: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on seasonal shopping, April 2021
- Consumer spending significantly down as events are celebrated in lockdown
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- Figure 15: Estimated consumer spending on the autumn/winter retail events, 2019/20 and 2020/21
- Parents cut back on Back-to-School spending amid uncertainty
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- Figure 16: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Back-to-School products in 2020
- Figure 17: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Back-to-School products, 2018-20
- Halloween confectionery dominates spending despite ban on trick-or-treating
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- Figure 18: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Halloween products in 2020
- Figure 19: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Halloween products, 2019 and 2020
- Bonfire Night fireworks spending resilient despite COVID-19 restrictions
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- Figure 20: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Bonfire Night products in 2020
- Figure 21: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Bonfire Night, 2019 and 2020
- Valentine’s Day spending celebrations move indoors
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- Figure 22: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Valentine’s Day products in 2021
- Figure 23: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Valentine’s Day products, 2020 and 2021
- Market drivers and assumptions
- Learnings from the last recession
- Forecast methodology
Retail Sales
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- Autumn has biggest share of retail sales
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- Figure 24: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by season, 2020
- Figure 25: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2019 and 2020
- Impact of lockdowns on retail sales becomes clear
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- Figure 26: Annual percentage change in all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2018-20
- Mixed bag for leading categories
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- Figure 27: Value of leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2018-20
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- Figure 28: Annual percentage change in leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2020
Online Retail Sales
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- Online sales take up a third of all retail sales during lockdown
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- Figure 29: Online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, by month, January 2019-February 2021
- Value of online sales sees significant uptick in 2020
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- Figure 30: Value of all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2019 and 2020
- Figure 31: Annual percentage change in all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2020
Market Drivers
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- Wages outpace inflation
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- Figure 32: Real wage growth – Average weekly earnings vs inflation, 2016-21
- Population trends
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- Figure 33: Population trends in the UK, 2020-30
- Figure 34: Population trends in the UK, 2020-30
- Consumer confidence holds up well
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- Figure 35: Trends in how respondents would describe their financial situation, March 2021
- Consumers fear impact of Brexit on household income
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- Figure 36: Brexit impact on household income, March 2021
- Consumers plan on saving
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- Figure 37: How consumers will spend extra money, January 2021
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Tapping into wider retail trends
- Retailers encourage safe online seasonal shopping habits
- Adspend significantly declined in 2020
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Back-to-School
- Clarks offer parents free replacement shoes until February
- Parents pay same price for uniforms no matter the age with Morrisons new BTS range
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- Figure 38: Morrisons flat-priced BTS range, 2020
- Asda’s sustainable Back-to-School uniform
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- Figure 39: Asda’s sustainable Back-to-School uniform, 2020
- Sainsbury’s is selling child-friendly face masks
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- Figure 40: Sainsbury’s range of family face masks
- Halloween and Bonfire Night
- Rubie’s #raiseyourspirits campaign
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- Figure 41: Rubie’s and Bristol Novelty’s Spooky Hand sanitiser
- Disney’s Halloween face masks
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- Figure 42: Disney face masks
- Aldi’s Pumpkin-shaped pizza to enjoy at home
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- Figure 43: Aldi’s pumpkin-shaped pizza
- Morrisons launches Halloween and Bonfire Night goody box
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- Figure 44: Morrisons Halloween and Bonfire Night party boxes, 2020
- Valentine’s Day
- Interflora’s ‘self-partnered’ range of flowers
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- Figure 45: Interflora’s ‘self-partnered’ flower bouquet
- Lush launches subscription box
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- Figure 46: Lush subscription box, 2021
- M&S swaps flowers for sweets in new Percy Pig flower bouquet
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- Figure 47: Pig flower bouquet, 2021
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Adspend drops in 2020 as marketing moves indoors
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- Figure 48: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by month, 2019 and 2020
- Advertising spend concentrated in the final quarter of the year
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- Figure 49: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by quarter, as % of total spending, 2019 and 2020
- Digital benefits from consumers spending more time indoors
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- Figure 50: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by media type, as a % of total spending, 2019 and 2020
- Key campaigns
- Etsy calls for support for local businesses in Valentine’s Day campaign
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- Figure 51: Etsy’s Valentine’s Day campaign 2021
- Rubie’s #raiseyourspirits campaign
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- Figure 52: Rubie’s and Bristol Novelty’s Spooky Hand sanitiser
- Sports Direct’s first Christmas campaign
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- Figure 53: Sports Direct Christmas campaign
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Impact of COVID-19 on gift and product purchasing
- Online shopping during seasonal events in 2020
- COVID-19 heightened sense of community
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour
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- Consumers cut back discretionary spending
- COVID-19 heightened sense of community
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- Figure 54: Consumers cutting back on non-essential spending and buying from more local businesses, 19-23 March 2021
- Consumers move shopping habits online
- The pandemic makes click-and-collect appealing
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- Figure 55: Changing shopping habits due to pandemic, 19-23 March 2021
- Consumers’ finances significantly impacted by COVID-19
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- Figure 56: How COVID-19 has impacted households, 4-12 March 2021
What They Buy for Seasonal Events
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- Back-to-School purchasing takes a hit due to COVID-19 uncertainty
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- Figure 57: Back-to-School purchasing, 2019 and 2020
- Halloween and Bonfire purchasing holds up well
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- Figure 58: What they buy for Halloween and Bonfire Night, 2019 and 2020
- Valentine’s Day purchasing remains resilient despite lockdown
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- Figure 59: What products are bought for Valentine’s Day, 2020 and 2021
- Black Friday sees subdued purchasing
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- Figure 60: What they buy during Black Friday, 2019 and 2020
How Much They Spend on Seasonal Gifts and Products
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- Parents focus spending to support remote learning
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- Figure 61: Average amount spent on Back-to-School items, 2019 and 2020
- Spending on Halloween and Bonfire Night products grows despite COVID-19 restrictions
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- Figure 62: How much they spend on Halloween and Bonfire Night products, 2019 and 2020
- Valentine’s Day spending levels take a hit as celebrations move indoors
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- Figure 63: How much they spend on Valentine’s Day gifts, 2020 and 2021
- Valentine’s Day gift recipients
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- Figure 64: Who consumers buy Valentine’s Day gifts for, 2020 and 2021
How They Shop
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- Back-to-School shopping moves online
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- Figure 65: How they shopped for Back-to-School items, September 2020
- Halloween and Bonfire Night shopping remains in-store
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- Figure 66: How products were bought, November 2020
- Valentine’s Day shoppers opt for online gift buying in 2021
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- Figure 67: How they shopped for Valentine’s Day gifts, March 2020
- How Black Friday items were delivered
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- Figure 68: How items purchased during Black Friday were delivered, December 2020
Where They Shop
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- Supermarkets benefit from essential status
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- Figure 69: Where they shopped for Back-to-School items, 2019 and 2020
- Tesco the Halloween and Bonfire Night favourite retailer
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- Figure 70: Which retailer they shop at for Halloween and Bonfire Night products, November 2020
Seasonal Shopping Activities
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- Halloween and Bonfire Night activities
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- Figure 71: Halloween and Bonfire Night activities, November 2020
- Valentine’s Day celebrations move indoors
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- Figure 72: Valentine’s Day activities, March 2020
Seasonal Shopping Behaviours
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- Consumers prioritise Christmas over Halloween…
- ...but COVID-19 does not deter all from celebrating
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- Figure 73: Halloween and Bonfire Night behaviours, November 2020
- Retailers should reassure parents it’s safe to shop in-store
- Protective wear becomes part of the new school uniform
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- Figure 74: Back-to-School behaviours, September 2020
- Valentine’s Day behaviours
- Shoppers get personal this Valentine’s Day
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- Figure 75: Valentine’s Day behaviours, March 2020
- Black Friday used to purchase Christmas gifts
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- Figure 76: Black Friday behaviours, December 2020
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
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