Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on desserts
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- Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on desserts, 25 March 2021
- The market
- Desserts market sees uplift from COVID-19 in 2020…
- …but will be unable to sustain growth in 2021
- Long-term focus on health will continue to pressurise market
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- Figure 2: UK retail value sales of desserts, 2015-25
- Ambient desserts overtake chilled desserts to become the largest segment in 2020
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- Figure 3: UK retail value sales of desserts, by segment, 2018-20
- Companies and brands
- 2020 sees significant boost for Gü in 2020 in chilled desserts
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- Figure 4: UK retail sales of leading brands in the chilled desserts market, by value, 2019 and 2020
- Ambient desserts sales soar thanks to COVID-19
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- Figure 5: UK retail sales of leading brands in the ambient desserts market, by value, 2019 and 2020
- Chilled dessert launches see considerable boost in share in 2020
- Big brands from other categories enter desserts
- Desserts advertising spend falls in 2020
- The consumer
- After-dinner occasion remains intensely competitive
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- Figure 6: Food and drink typically eaten/drunk after the main course or dish of a meal, February 2019 and December 2020
- Desserts remain on the menu for four in five
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- Figure 7: Usage of different types of desserts in last 3 months, December 2020
- Desserts are an infrequent choice, families are core users
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- Figure 8: Frequency of eating desserts in the last 3 months, by type, December 2020
- Lower sugar would prompt 36% to eat desserts more often, 23% drawn to brand extensions
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- Figure 9: Factors that would prompt more frequent usage of desserts, December 2020
- Majority say that a dessert can be both healthy and indulgent, 41% want meal pairing tips
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- Figure 10: Behaviours related to desserts, December 2020
- Healthy versions of kids’ desserts appeal to 66% of parents, dessert kits interest 41%
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- Figure 11: Attitudes towards desserts, December 2020
- Calorie-control is most important for desserts positioned as snacks…
- …but no ‘one size fits all’ for snacks and everyday/weeknight desserts
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- Figure 12: Attributes looked for in a dessert product for snack and evening occasions, December 2020
- Indulgence is the most highly sought quality for dinner parties and celebrations
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- Figure 13: Attributes looked for in a dessert product for dinner party and celebration occasions, December 2020
Issues and Insights
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- Increased focus on health due to COVID-19 holds opportunities and threats
- Majority say that a dessert can be both healthy and indulgent
- Dessert kits hold untapped potential
- Income squeeze could lend ongoing momentum to ambient segment
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Desserts market sees uplift from COVID-19 in 2020…
- …but will be unable to sustain growth in 2021
- Long term focus on health will continue to pressurise market
- Ambient desserts overtake chilled desserts to become the largest segment in 2020
- Puddings see increase in sugar and calorie content despite government targets
- Ageing population could prove a challenge for desserts
Market Size and Forecast
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- Impact of COVID-19 on desserts
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- Figure 14: Short, medium and long term impact of COVID-19 on desserts, 25 March 2021
- Desserts market sees uplift from COVID-19 in 2020…
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- Figure 15: UK value and volume retail sales of desserts, 2015-25 (prepared on 25 March 2021)
- …but will be unable to sustain growth in 2021
- Long-term focus on health will continue to put pressure on the market
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- Figure 16: UK retail value sales of desserts, 2015-25
- Figure 17: UK retail volume sales of desserts, 2015-25
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 18: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-25 (prepared on 5 March 2021)
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 19: Growth in value and volume retail sales of desserts, 2008-12
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Mixed fortunes in the desserts market over 2015-19
- Ambient desserts overtake chilled desserts to become the largest segment in 2020
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- Figure 20: UK value and volume sales of desserts, by segment, 2015-20
Market Drivers
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- 2021 commences with new national lockdowns
- Health of nation placed in spotlight by COVID-19
- Pandemic spurs on new government obesity strategy…
- …with some proposals already confirmed
- ‘Traffic light’ labelling plays significant role in dessert decisions
- Puddings see increase in sugar and calorie content despite government targets
- Income squeeze could lead to ongoing boost for ambient segment
- Ageing population could prove a challenge for desserts
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- Figure 21: Trends in UK population, by age, 2015-20 and 2020-25
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- 2020 sees significant boost for Gü in 2020 in chilled desserts
- Nostalgic brands benefit in ambient desserts
- Chilled dessert launches see considerable boost in share in 2020
- Brands from other categories enter desserts
- Desserts advertising spend falls in 2020
Market Share
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- 2020 sees significant boost for Gü in 2020 in chilled desserts
- Own-label and Müller Rice lose ground
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- Figure 22: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK chilled desserts retail market, by value and volume, 2018-20
- Ambient desserts sales soar thanks to COVID-19
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- Figure 23: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK ambient desserts retail market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2020/21
- A strong year for toppings and syrups boosts most brands
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- Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK syrup, treacle and dessert toppings retail market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2020/21
- Own-label is big winner in frozen desserts
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- Figure 25: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen desserts retail market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2020/21
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Chilled dessert launches see considerable boost in share in 2020
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- Figure 26: Share of new product launches in the UK desserts market, by segment, 2016-20
- 2020 sees rise in premium launches
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- Figure 27: Share of launches in the desserts market with premium and seasonal claims, 2016-20
- Seasonal premium launches continue to focus on indulgent flavours…
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- Figure 28: Recent examples of indulgent flavours in seasonal premium launches, 2019-20
- …and stand-out designs
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- Figure 29: Recent examples of premium eye-catching seasonal launches, 2020
- Ambient desserts see premium NPD
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- Figure 30: Recent examples of ambient desserts with a premium positioning, 2019-20
- Hybrid desserts continue to be explored within premium launches
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- Figure 31: Recent examples of hybrid desserts, 2020
- Better-for-you remains strong area of innovation
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- Figure 32: Share of launches in the desserts market with selected ‘better for you’ claims, 2016-20
- Market leader Gü enters better-for-you space in 2020…
- …following rival Pots & Co’s entry in 2019
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- Figure 33: Gü and Pots & Co enter the better-for-you space, 2019-20
- Alpro relaunches Dessert Moments making its 90 calories more prominent…
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- Figure 34: Alpro packaging redesign makes calorie count more prominent, 2017 and 2020
- …whilst plant-based Zveetz gives a back-of-pack lesson on sugar
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- Figure 35: Zveetz Peanut Butter Mousse, 2021
- Müller calls out low fat content of new protein variants
- Vegan and plant-based claims continue to grow
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- Figure 36: Share of launches in the desserts market with vegan/no animal ingredients, dairy-free and plant-based claims, 2016-20
- Dessert powerhouse brands enter vegan/plant-based arena for the first time…
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- Figure 37: Gü enters the vegan/plant-based dessert space, 2020
- …whilst private label continues to expand free-from offering
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- Figure 38: Recent examples of own-label vegan/plant-based innovation, 2019-21
- Sustainable claims continue to rise
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- Figure 39: Share of launches in the desserts market with ethical – sustainable and ethical - environmentally friendly product claims, 2016-20
- Plastic reduction efforts are stepped up…
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- Figure 40: Tesco highlighting reducing and eliminating plastic, 2019-20
- …whilst sustainable cocoa and charitable initiatives are also explored
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- Figure 41: Recent examples of brands calling out cocoa certifications and charitable initiatives, 2020-21
- Big brands from other categories enter desserts
- Ice cream brands blur category lines
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- Figure 42: Recent examples of ice cream brands entering the dessert category, 2019-20
- Charlie Bigham’s rolls out ready-to-bake puddings, TGI Fridays partners with Iceland for exclusive range
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- Figure 43: Recent examples of Charlie Bigham’s and TGI Fridays entering the dessert category, 2020
- Cadbury and Andros tap into health and plant-based trends
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- Figure 44: Cadbury and Andros tap into plant-based trend, 2021
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Desserts advertising spend falls in 2020
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- Figure 45: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on desserts*, by sub-category, 2019-20
- Premier Foods looks to cement COVID-19 boost to Ambrosia with new advert
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- Figure 46: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on desserts*, by top advertisers, 2019-20**
- Gü references COVID-19 gestures in Christmas campaign…
- …after encouraging fans to declare their love in early 2020
- Müller Rice plays on comfort food angle in online adverts
- Grocers continue to focus adspend on festive own-label offerings
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 47: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, January 2021
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 48: Key metrics for selected brands, January 2021
- Brand attitudes: Aunt Bessie’s leads on trust
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- Figure 49: Attitudes, by brand, January 2021
- Brand personality: Gü scores highest for exclusivity
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- Figure 50: Brand personality – macro image, January 2021
- Ambrosia and Aunt Bessie’s lead on comforting perceptions
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- Figure 51: Brand personality – micro image, January 2021
- Brand analysis
- Gü leads on indulgence
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- Figure 52: User profile of Gü, January 2021
- Bonne Maman scores joint highest for authenticity
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- Figure 53: User profile of Bonne Maman, January 2021
- Aunt Bessie’s has the strongest family associations
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- Figure 54: User profile of Aunt Bessie’s, January 2021
- Ambrosia shares the lead in terms of comforting perceptions
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- Figure 55: User profile of Ambrosia, January 2021
- Hartley’s Jelly shares the lead for being a fun brand
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- Figure 56: User profile of Hartley’s Jelly, January 2021
- Müller Rice viewed as the healthiest brand
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- Figure 57: User profile of Müller Rice, January 2021
- Angel Delight shares top position on fun
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- Figure 58: User profile of Angel Delight, January 2021
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Focus on sugar and health intensifies due to COVID-19
- Income squeeze will continue to fuel the evening-in occasion
- Desserts are an infrequent choice
- Lower sugar would prompt over a third to eat desserts more often
- Majority say that a dessert can be both healthy and indulgent
- Dessert kits appeal to 41%
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour
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- Focus on sugar and health intensifies due to COVID-19…
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- Figure 59: Healthy eating as a priority since the COVID-19 outbreak, 7-14 May 2020 and 4-12 February 2021
- …but stresses of pandemic cause many to turn to treats
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- Figure 60: Changes to how often consumers have been eating treats since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, by age and gender, 23 April-7 May 2020
- More cooking from scratch long-term holds threats and opportunities for dessert brands
- Income squeeze will continue to fuel the evening-in occasion
Food and Drink Typically Eaten/Drunk after the Main Course/Dish of a Meal
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- After-dinner occasion remains intensely competitive
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- Figure 61: Food and drink typically eaten/drunk after the main course or dish of a meal, February 2019 and December 2020
- Hot drinks, fruit and ice cream remain top competition
Usage of Desserts
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- Desserts remain on the menu for four in five
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- Figure 62: Usage of different types of desserts in last 3 months, December 2020
- Desserts are an infrequent choice
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- Figure 63: Frequency of eating desserts in the last 3 months, by type, December 2020
- Families report higher overall usage and more frequent usage of desserts
Factors that Would Prompt More Frequent Usage of Desserts
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- Lower sugar would prompt over a third to eat desserts more often
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- Figure 64: Factors that would prompt more frequent usage of desserts, December 2020
- A ‘less sweet’ proposition could also be explored
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- Figure 65: Recent examples of products calling out being “just sweet enough” or “not too sweet”, 2019-20
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- Figure 66: Recent examples of desserts calling out that they are sweetened with fruit sugars only, 2019-20
- A quarter would like to see more ‘mini’ formats
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- Figure 67: Recent examples of “mini” formats in cakes, chocolate and ice cream, 2020-1
- Figure 68: Recent examples of ‘mini’ desserts, 2018-20
- Frozen pre-portioned ‘mini’ desserts could help brands better compete for after-dinner occasion
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- Figure 69: Pleesecakes frozen Mini Black Forest Cheesecake, 2019
- Figure 70: Recent international examples of ‘mini’ formats in frozen desserts, 2020
- 23% would like to see more desserts from favourite chocolate or cake brands
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- Figure 71: International examples of dessert products from premium chocolate brands, 2018-20
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- Figure 72: Mr Kipling signature collection positioning as an after dinner product, 2019-20
Behaviours Related to Desserts
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- Majority say that a dessert can be both healthy and indulgent
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- Figure 73: Behaviours related to desserts, December 2020
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- Figure 74: Recent examples of light and low-calorie variants from dessert brands, 2019-20
- Communicating indulgence of healthier treats is crucial…
- …but success within other categories shows its potential
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- Figure 75: Recent examples of healthy indulgence in the cake and snacks categories, 2019-21
- Nearly half of people like to assemble their own dessert from multiple elements
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- Figure 76: Recent examples of dessert and yogurt products with elements packaged in different compartments, 2020
- Potential for dessert brands across different segments to collaborate…
- …and utilise social media to boost engagement
- 41% would like ideas for main meal and dessert pairings
- High interest in world cuisines shows potential for further NPD
Attitudes towards Desserts
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- Healthy versions of children’s desserts appeal to 66% of parents
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- Figure 77: Attitudes towards desserts, December 2020
- Family-friendly brands could tap into openness to healthy innovation
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- Figure 78: Recent examples of low/reduced sugar claims in family-friendly brands, 2019
- Dessert kits appeal to 41%
- Angel Delight Dessert Kit’s success signals further opportunities…
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- Figure 79: Angel Delight chocolate flavour dinosaur edition dessert kit, 2020
- …whilst international launches provide cues for NPD
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- Figure 80: Baker’s No Bake Dessert Kit S’Mores Cookie Balls Dessert Kit, 2020
- Figure 81: Tasty Choco Mocha No Bake Dessert Kit, 2020
- Openness towards dry dessert mixes and willingness to trade down stand to support demand during income squeeze
Attributes Looked for in a Dessert Product for Different Occasions
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- Calorie-control is most important for desserts positioned as snacks…
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- Figure 82: Attributes looked for in a dessert product for snack and evening occasions, December 2020
- …but no ‘one size fits all’ for snacks and everyday/weeknight desserts
- Indulgence is the most highly sought quality for dinner parties and celebrations
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- Figure 83: Attributes looked for in a dessert product for dinner party and celebration occasions, December 2020
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Forecast methodology
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- Figure 84: UK retail value sales of desserts, best- and worst-case forecast, 2020-25
- Figure 85: UK retail volume sales of desserts, best- and worst-case forecast, 2020-25
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