70% of dessert eaters think a dessert can be both healthy and indulgent. In addition, desserts being lower in sugar would prompt over a third (36%) of less frequent dessert eaters to enjoy these treats more often. Whilst the sugar content of this category is likely to come under even more scrutiny due to the spotlight that COVID-19 has placed on the nation’s health, this openness to better-for-you variants spells good news for dessert brands to be able to develop their offering to keep consumers onside, as well as potentially boost usage frequency.

The lockdowns coming into place in January 2021 will continue to create more evening-in occasions and opportunities for desserts. This should see the momentum enjoyed by ambient desserts and chilled market leader Gü during the COVID-19 restrictions in 2020 continue.

Nevertheless, once the lockdown eases, the reliance on comfort foods and evenings ins that fuelled growth in 2020 will ebb. Consumer and government focus on health and continued competition from other segments is expected to put growing pressure on the category.

56% of those who often make homemade desserts also bought chilled desserts in the three months to December 2020. Whilst more scratch-cooking as a consequence of COVID-19 poses a threat to the market long term, this crossover demonstrates the scope for brands to win over also the scratch cooks. Dessert kits can play a role here, holding marked untapped potential. 41% of dessert eaters find kits containing ingredients needed for making desserts at home appealing, including 53% of those who often make home-made desserts.

Key issues covered in this Report

  • The impact of COVID-19 on the desserts market

  • Launch activity in 2020 and opportunities for 2021

  • Factors that would prompt more frequent usage of desserts

  • Consumer behaviours and attitudes related to desserts

  • Attributes looked for in a dessert product for different occasions

COVID-19: Market context

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. As the case level rose, the government ordered the closure of non-essential stores on 20 March. 

A wider lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, exercise and work ‘if absolutely necessary’ followed on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to re-open, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July, and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a month-long lockdown from 5 November, and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions. 

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions further in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown.

On 22 February, Boris Johnson announced the roadmap to an easing of restrictions in England, starting with the reopening of schools on 8 March, followed by easing of restrictions on outdoor gatherings on 29 March, and with a hoped end to all restrictions by 21 June. The Welsh and Scottish governments also gave more details on their plans to ease restrictions, with both nations taking a slightly more cautious approach to the one planned for England.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, and with the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines licenced for use in the UK, the government aims to offer a first dose of the vaccine to 32 million people by mid-April.

Economic and other assumptions

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its March 2021 Economic and Fiscal Outlook Report. After the fall of 9.9% over the course of 2020, the scenario suggests that UK GDP will grow by 4% in 2021 and 7.3% in 2022.

GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until the second quarter of 2022, although this is six months earlier than the OBR forecast in November 2020, mainly because of the faster than expected rollout of vaccines.

Unemployment is expected to peak at 6.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021. As with GDP, this is more positive than the OBR’s November forecast, but the OBR does raise the prospect of long-term scarring on employment, especially in the more exposed retail and hospitality sectors.

The second wave of infections and subsequent lockdowns means that the short-term prospects for the country are consistent with the OBR’s negative scenario, but this needs to be balanced against the fact that the vaccine rollout is ahead of even the OBR’s central scenario. Medium- to long-term, then, we are still basing our forecasts and market analysis on the OBR’s central economic scenario.

Products covered in this Report

This Report covers the UK retail market for chilled, ambient and frozen desserts. It excludes sales through foodservice establishments.

  • Chilled desserts include all types of chilled desserts such as dairy-based desserts, fruit compote, mousse, and (prepared) puddings.

  • Ambient desserts include dessert ingredients (eg sweet condensed milk, evaporated milk, custard, jelly, ice cream accompaniments, tinned fruit, fruit fillings); dessert ready mixes (eg mousse, blancmange, toppings); ready-to-eat desserts (eg RTE custard, RTE jelly, rice pudding, sponge pudding, fruit pots); and ready-to-eat dessert bases. Dessert dry mixes, which also include some cake mixes (eg Betty Crocker), are included in the market size but fall outside the Report definition.

  • Frozen desserts include for example frozen cakes, sponge puddings, cheesecake, gateaux, Pavlova and traditional puddings as well as frozen fruit.

  • Dessert toppings include dessert sauces, topping syrups, coulis and hot fudge sauce.

  • Shelf-stable cakes and Christmas puddings are excluded.

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