Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on packaged bread
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on packaged bread, March 2021
- Opportunities and challenges
- Packaged bread falls short on health
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- Figure 3: Health of fresh bread versus packaged bread, August 2020
- Younger consumers indicate a move away from breads
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- Figure 4: Bread behaviors, by age, January 2021
- Clean label will become table stakes
- The future of bread is crafty
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- Figure 5: Attitudes toward artisanal bread, by age, January 2021
- Make bread the star of the meal
- Move from recipes to meal planning
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- Figure 6: Bread behaviors, January 2021
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Bread sales uptick to be short-lived
- Loaf breads provide ease and comfort
- Baking at home may shape consumer bread perception
- Bread's role in a healthy diet
Market Size and Forecast
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- Difficulties persist for the overall bread category
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on packaged bread
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- Figure 9: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on packaged bread, March 2021
- Lockdown
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
- COVID-19: US context
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 10: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, at current prices, 2007-11
Segment Performance
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- Loaf bread maintains market share lead
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- Figure 11: Sales of packaged bread, by segment, 2015-25
- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged bread, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
- Supermarkets maintain market share lead
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales of packaged bread, by channel, in $ millions, at current prices, 2015-20
Market Factors
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- Pandemic, unemployment keeps consumers home for meals
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- Figure 14: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-December 2020
- In-store bakeries affected by pandemic but should rebound
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- Figure 15: Reasons for choosing baked goods from the aisle over the ISB, December 2020
- Bread prices rise
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- Figure 16: Consumer price index – Average price of bread per pound, January 2019-January 2021
- Leverage the drivers of baking at home
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- Figure 17: Monthly social media mentions of at-home baking on Instagram, Pinterest and Twitter, March-November 2020
- COVID-inspired wellbeing aspirations support whole grains
Market Opportunities
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- Aiding the at-home baking phenomenon
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- Figure 18: Baking behaviors compared to last year, by age, October 2020
- Reinforce value through wellness, nutrition
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- Figure 19: Health of fresh bread versus packaged bread, August 2020
- Craft and artisanal breads could hold unique appeal
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- Figure 20: Attitudes toward artisanal bread, by age, January 2021
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Heavily fragmented category shows no shifts in share
- Bread brands turn to multiple strategies to expand appeal
Market Share
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- Grupo Bimbo maintains share lead in a heavily fragmented category
- Sales of packaged bread by company
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- Figure 21: Multi-outlet sales of packaged bread, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Competitive Strategies
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- Bread companies boost environmental credentials
- Keeping with keto
- Linking with local – even if it is nationwide
- Plant-based takes on bread
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Nearly universal usage leaves bread searching for room to grow
- Amid comforting solutions, healthy breads emerge
- Flavor reigns among drivers, but room for clean label among parents
- Carb-cutting still at the heart of consumption reduction
- Bread behaviors are a little stale
- Leverage the appeal of international cuisines
Bread Consumption
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- Bread consumption nearly universal
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- Figure 22: Bread consumption, January 2021 and April 2018
- Bread loaf dominance tied strongly to older consumers
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- Figure 23: Bread consumption, January 2021
- More than three quarters eat three of more types
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- Figure 24: Repertoire analysis of types of bread consumed, January 2021
Bread Types Consumed
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- Pandemic sees consumers turn to comforting bread types
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- Figure 25: Bread types consumed, January 2021
- Young adults expand palates through bread varietals
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- Figure 26: Bread types consumed, by age, January 2021
- Niche breads must make a case for premium appeal
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- Figure 27: Bread types consumed, by household income, January 2021
- Wide variety of bread types in households with children
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- Figure 28: Bread types consumed, by parental status, January 2021
Bread Consumption Changes
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- Pandemic reverses category slide
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- Figure 29: Bread consumption changes, January 2021
- Parents, young adults increase bread consumption
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- Figure 30: Consuming more bread than a year ago, by select demographics, January 2021
- Reinforce strengths in convenience, versatility, value to sustain growth
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- Figure 31: Reasons for increased consumption compared to last year, January 2021
- Convenient solutions for freshly baked
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- Figure 32: Reasons for increased consumption compared to last year, by parental status, January 2021
- Cutting carbs still at the heart of attrition
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- Figure 33: Reasons for decreased consumption compared to last year, January 2021
Bread Choice Factors
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- Messaging focus should be on flavor
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- Figure 34: Bread choice factors, January 2021
- Clean labels draw younger consumers and parents
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- Figure 35: Clean labels in bread choice, January 2021
- Fresh focus for packaged bread
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- Figure 36: TURF Analysis – Bread choice factors, January 2020
Bread Ingredient Claims
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- Grains provide breads a healthy angle
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- Figure 37: Bread ingredient claims, January 2021
- Young consumers more likely to avoid carbs
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- Figure 38: Bread ingredient claims, by generation, January 2021
Bread Behaviors
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- Shift marketing from recipes to meal planning
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- Figure 39: Bread behaviors, January 2021
- Younger consumers indicate a move away from breads
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- Figure 40: Bread behaviors, by age, January 2021
- Consumers aware of the category’s healthy options
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- Figure 41: Bread behaviors, by generation, January 2021
Attitudes toward Bread
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- Health and flavor can refresh the category
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- Figure 42: Attitudes toward bread, January 2021
- Appeal to parents with the story of the bread, itself
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- Figure 43: Attitudes toward ingredients in bread, by parental status, January 2021
- International cuisines as a bread influencer
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- Figure 44: Attitudes toward bread in cuisines, by parental status, by gender, January 2021
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 45: Total US sales and forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 46: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 47: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged bread, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 48: Total US retail sales of packaged bread, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
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- Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh loaf bread, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh loaf bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of rolls/buns/croissants, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of rolls/buns/croissants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of bagels/bialys/English muffins/pita bread, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of bagels/bialys/English muffins/pita bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of tortillas, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of tortillas, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen bread products, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen bread products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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Appendix – Retailers
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- Figure 59: Total US retail sales of packaged bread, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 60: Total US retail sales of packaged bread, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
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- Figure 61: US supermarket sales of packaged bread, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 62: US sales of packaged bread through other retail channels, at current prices, 2015-20
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Appendix – Companies and Brands
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- Figure 63: Multi-outlet sales of fresh loaf bread, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 64: Multi-outlet sales of rolls/buns/croissants, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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- Figure 65: Multi-outlet sales of bagels/bialys/English muffins/pita bread, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 66: Multi-outlet sales of tortillas, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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- Figure 67: Multi-outlet sales of refrigerated/frozen bread products, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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