After years of stagnation, the packaged bread category benefited strongly from a shift in consumer spending out of restaurants for breakfast and lunch during the pandemic. Those who maintain their work-from-home habits begun during the pandemic may well demand bread brands that demonstrate just how versatile their products can be, expanding their lunch and even snacking potential. Key to any growth in the category, however, will be health, particularly as consumers should show a renewed tendency toward nutrition, which brands may well mitigate through the promise of protein and fiber content.

• The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and the packaged bread market

• Consumer attitudes and behaviors related to bread

• Drivers behind packaged bread choice

• Ingredient claims of interest in the packaged bread category

This Report builds on the analysis presented in Mintel’s Packaged Bread – US, July 2018, Bread and Bread Products – US, September 2014, Packaged Bread – US, July 2016, Bread – US, September 2013 as well as the November 2011, June 2009, June 2008, September 2007, January 2006 and February 2005 Reports of the same title.

Included in the scope of this Report are the following:

• Fresh loaf bread

• Rolls/buns/croissants (hamburger and hot dog buns, all other fresh rolls/buns/croissants)

• Bagels/bialys/English muffins/pita bread

• Tortillas (hard/soft tortillas/taco kits, refrigerated tortillas, frozen tortillas)

• Refrigerated/frozen bread products (frozen fresh-baked bread/roll/biscuit, frozen bagels, refrigerated bagels/bialys, refrigerated English muffins, refrigerated bread, refrigerated dinner/sandwich rolls/croissants).

Although discussed in this Report, excluded from the Market Size of this Report are ISB bread products. Also excluded from the scope of this Report are the following: sweet baked goods such as muffins, scones, sticky buns and sweet rolls as well as home baking products such as flour, yeast, bread mixes, pizza dough mixes, refrigerated/frozen pizza dough and cake mixes. Tortilla chips and tostada chips also are excluded.

The first COVID-19 case was confirmed in the US in January 2020. It was declared a global health pandemic and national emergency in early March 2020. Across the US, various stay-at-home orders were put in place in Spring 2020, and nonessential businesses and school districts closed or shifted to remote operations. The remainder of 2020 saw rolling orders, as states and local governments relaxed and reinforced guidelines according to the spread of the virus in each region.

Vaccine distribution began in December 2020, and it is expected take anywhere from July to December 2021 for 70-90% of the population to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity. Mintel anticipates business operations in the US will remain in a state of flux through 2021 as the vaccine is widely administered.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on CBO estimates released on February 1, 2021. The CBO’s previous forecast for US GDP to fall by 5.8% in 2020 was revised after a stronger second half of the year, and the updated estimate indicates negative 3.5% GDP for the year. The CBO forecasts GDP to grow by 4.6% in 2021 and projects unemployment to continue to fall to average 5.7% for the year.