E-cigarettes remain a popular smoking cessation method, used by 87% of smokers who are currently trying to quit/cut down. As such, the category saw an estimated 6.6% growth in value to reach £314 million in 2020, while the smoking category declined by an estimated 3.2% to reach £144.1 million.

The pandemic has impacted smoking rates and made it harder for smokers to quit; 30% of smokers have smoked more regularly since the start of COVID-19 while 51% have stress-smoked more.

A threat to both the smoking cessation and E-cigarettes categories comes from smoking alternatives, such as snus (tobacco-free nicotine patches) and smoke-less devices, which claim to satisfy smokers’ cravings without the negative implications associated with smoking or vaping. While these aren’t marketed as smoking cessation methods, smokers can use them to quit/cut down.

There are opportunities however for brands and health bodies to provide better information and education to smokers, particularly as access to health experts has been impacted by the pandemic. Brands can look to set up online communities to enable smokers to access help and support from their peers, while the NHS can provide more guidance to vapers on adjusting nicotine levels to help them quit.

Key issues covered in this Report

  • The impact of COVID-19 on smokers and vapers.

  • Smoking and vaping rates, including frequencies.

  • Quit smoking status.

  • Methods used to quit smoking.

  • Nicotine level used by vapers.

COVID-19: Market context

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. Rapidly rising case numbers led to the first national lockdown, starting on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to re-open, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July, and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a month-long lockdown from 5 November, and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions.

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown.

On 22 February, Boris Johnson announced the roadmap to an easing of restrictions in England, starting with the re-opening of schools on 8 March, followed by easing of restrictions on outdoor gatherings on 29 March, and with a hoped end to all restrictions by 21 June. The Welsh and Scottish governments also gave more details on their plans to ease restrictions, with both nations taking a slightly more cautious approach to the one planned for England.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, and with the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines licenced for use in the UK, the government aims to offer a first dose of the vaccine to 32 million people by mid-April.

Economic and other assumptions

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its November 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK GDP will have fallen by 11.3% in 2020, recovering by 5.5% in 2021 and 6.6% in 2022. GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID levels until Q4 2022. The central scenario has unemployment peaking at 7.5% in Q2 2021.

The current uncertainty means that there is wide variation on the range of forecasts, however, and this is reflected in the OBR’s own scenarios. In its upside scenario, economic activity returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by Q4 2021. Its more negative scenario, by contrast, would mean that GDP doesn’t recover until Q3 2024.

The second wave of infections and subsequent lockdowns means that the short-term prospects for the country are consistent with the OBR’s negative scenario, but this needs to be balanced against the fact that the vaccine rollout is ahead of even the OBR’s central scenario. Medium to long term, then, we are still basing our forecasts and market analysis on the OBR’s central economic scenario.

Products covered in this Report

This Report covers smoking cessation products as well as electronic cigarettes (henceforth referred to as E-cigarettes).

Smoking cessation products are defined as those products intended to assist and support smokers who are attempting to quit smoking. This includes NRTs (Nicotine Replacement Therapies) which deliver a measured dose of nicotine to a smoker that replaces the nicotine usually obtained from cigarettes.

E-cigarettes are defined as electronic inhalers, designed to stimulate and act as a substitute for tobacco. The majority deliver nicotine when inhaled.

Sales data for smoking cessation gum, tablets and patches is included in the Market Size and Forecast, Channels to Market and Market Share sections. However, due to the unavailability of data, E-cigarettes sales data has not been included in these sections, although an estimate of the value of the market has been provided.

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