Cider brands can harness feelings of patriotism, with 72% of cider drinkers agreeing it is important to support British cider brands. This demonstrates the strength of feeling that consumers hold towards supporting British producers. However, the prevalence of British brands makes it difficult for brands to set themselves apart on this aspect. Clearly emphasising their use of British produce and their British heritage should win favour.

Cider sales are estimated to fall by 8.5% by volume and 27.8% by value in 2020, to stand at 811 million litres and £2.5 billion. Cider sales through the on-trade have been hit by the enforced closures of pubs, bars and restaurants due to COVID-19, and the restrictions on these venues when they’ve been able to operate. While some of this spend has shifted to retail, many occasions have been lost. Although the January 2021 lockdowns will slow the recovery of the market, the long-term prospects are positive, the market expected to rebound in 2021 as lockdowns are eased in the spring, a positive trend that will continue over 2021-25.

The moderation trend poses a threat to alcohol, including cider. However, that 35% of cider drinkers agree there aren't enough low/non-alcoholic versions of cider available points to potential for the market to keep drinkers on side and provides an incentive for cider makers to continue to innovate through these versions. Such healthier variants are needed to stem any switching away, with 52% of cider drinkers saying health concerns would make them cut back on the amount of cider they drink.

The fruit-flavoured trend has served to revitalise cider since it emerged over a decade ago. The latest spate of rosé launches, though typically apple-based rather than flavoured, continue this theme of flavour variety. Yet there is demand for even more unique flavours, with 42% of cider drinkers expressing interest. Offering unique flavours in smaller formats should appeal, with 61% of cider drinkers saying cider in smaller bottles would encourage them to experiment with different flavours.

• The impact of COVID-19 on the cider market.

• Types and variants of cider drunk.

• Launch activity in 2020 and future product development opportunities.

• Interest in cider concepts.

• Consumer behaviours and attitudes related to cider.

COVID-19: Market context

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. As the case level rose, the government ordered the closure of non-essential stores on 20 March. 

A wider lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, exercise and work ‘if absolutely necessary’ followed on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to reopen, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July, and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a month-long lockdown from 5 November and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions. 

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown.

On 22 February, Boris Johnson announced the roadmap to an easing of restrictions in England, starting with the re-opening of schools on 8 March, followed by easing of restrictions on outdoor gatherings on 29 March, and with a hoped end to all restrictions by 21 June. The Welsh and Scottish governments also gave more details on their plans to ease restrictions, with both nations taking a slightly more cautious approach to the one planned for England.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, and with both the Pfizer-BioNTech and the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines licensed for use in the UK, the government aims to offer a first dose of vaccine to all adults by 31 July 2021.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its November 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK GDP will have fallen by 11.3% in 2020, recovering by 5.5% in 2021 and 6.6% in 2022. GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID levels until Q4 2022. The central scenario has unemployment peaking at 7.5% in Q2 2021.



The current uncertainty means that there is wide variation on the range of forecasts, however, and this is reflected in the OBR’s own scenarios. In its upside scenario, economic activity returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by Q4 2021. Its more negative scenario, by contrast, would mean that GDP doesn’t recover until Q3 2024.

The second wave of infections and subsequent lockdowns means that the short-term prospects for the country are consistent with the OBR’s negative scenario, but this needs to be balanced against the fact that the vaccine rollout is ahead of even the OBR’s central scenario. Medium to long term, then, we are still basing our forecasts and market analysis on the OBR’s central economic scenario.

All ciders are included within this Report: low/no-alcohol to super-strength; draught and packaged cider; unflavoured and flavoured ciders; still and sparkling ciders. Both on- and off-trade sales are included in the UK market size.

The NACM Code of Practice states that the alcohol content of cider must be greater than 1.2% ABV but less than 8.5% ABV; products in excess of 8.5% ABV are classified as apple wine. This definition of cider is used for this Report.

Perry and pear cider are both included in this Report. Whilst it is recognised that perry refers to a drink made using fermented pear juice, this term is used to describe light perries that are sold as wine-style drinks (eg Lambrini). Perries that are sold alongside ciders are referred to, for the purposes of this Report, as pear cider.

Flavoured cider refers to drinks marketed as ciders that contain flavourings or fruit other than pear or apple. Examples include Kopparberg Mixed Fruit and Brothers Strawberry and Mixed Pear Cider, among others.

Apple-flavoured alcoholic carbonates are excluded from market size calculations in this Report. Duty-free sales and personal imports are also excluded from market size calculations.