Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Key issues covered in this Report
- Definition
- COVID-19: FSR context
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on full-service restaurants
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on full-service restaurants, February 2021
- Opportunities and challenges
- Addressing safety concerns is the fastest track to recovery
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- Figure 3: FSR motivators, December 2020
- LSR visitation outpaces return to FSRs
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- Figure 4: Restaurant ordering, February-December 2020
- …but current diners are highly engaged
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- Figure 5: Year over year change in restaurant ordering, December 2020
- Refresh innovation to engage young adults
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- Figure 6: FSR occasions, by generation, December 2020
- FSRs must reimagine the dining experience
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- Figure 7: Attitudes toward FSRs, any agree, December 2020
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- FSRs face a long road to recovery
- Consumer financial and safety concerns are obstacles FSRs must tackle
- Evolving with new operating models and menu items can help FSRs maintain relevancy
Market Size and Forecast
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- FSR sales will not recover until 2024
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on full-service restaurants
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- Figure 10: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on full-service restaurants, February 2021
- COVID-19: FSR context
Market Breakdown
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- Casual dining market share was shrinking prepandemic
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- Figure 11: Share of top 200 restaurant chain sales, 2019
- FSRs will continue to lose market share to LSRs
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- Figure 12: Market share of total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, 2019-25
- Figure 13: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
- Prepandemic growth strategies became vital for pandemic survival
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- Figure 14: Change in sales of top 30 casual and family/midscale chains from 2018-19*
Market Factors
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- COVID-19 safety concerns hinder on-premise dining desire
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- Figure 15: Dine-in intentions, September 2020
- Changes in Restaurant OrderingFinancial hardships create challenges for FSRs
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- Figure 16: Unemployment, January 2007-December 2020
- Retail and retail foodservice competition grows
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- Figure 17: Prepared food purchasing frequency year over year, September 2020
- Takeout and delivery usage growing but don’t make up for lack of in-person dining
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- Figure 18: Restaurant ordering, pickup and delivery – NETS, June 2016, September 2018, September 2019 and May 2020
Market Opportunities
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- Alcohol takeout and delivery provide much-needed profits for FSRs
- Drive-thrus can drive sales
- Expansion into new dayparts, menu items are prime opportunities
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- Figure 19: IHOP email, “Hungry? IHOP’s got ya covered,” January 21, 2021
- FSRs go virtual
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- The off-premise experience is key to survival
- Employee rights are a matter of public health
- Restaurant meal kits alleviate consumer cooking fatigue
Competitive Strategies
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- FSRs embrace the off-premise experience
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- Figure 20: Restaurants offering an off-premise experience
- Employee and community support can strengthen brand loyalty
- FSRs facilitate home cooking with meal kits
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- FSR ordering still lagging but current diners are engaged
- Operators need to ease diners’ cost and safety concerns
- Off-premise dining is key to survival yet consumers are skeptical of its quality, value
- Off-peak occasions, high quality menu items and family offerings can drive visitation
Restaurant Ordering
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- FSRs need to compete on convenience
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- Figure 21: Restaurant ordering, February-December 2020
- Reach older generations with at-home celebrations
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- Figure 22: Restaurant ordering, by generation, December 2020
- Casual dining can fulfil a consumer desire for premium convenience
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- Figure 23: Restaurant ordering, by household income, December 2020
Changes in Restaurant Ordering
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- Current diners are highly engaged across restaurant segments
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- Figure 24: Year over year change in restaurant ordering, December 2020
- FSRs should serve meals with a side of entertainment to appeal to parents
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- Figure 25: Year over year change in restaurant ordering, by parental status, December 2020
- Figure 26: Cracker Barrel email, “It’s all food and games from here,” January 15, 2021
Casual Dining Motivators
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- Casual dining needs to highlight community involvement, local support
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- Figure 27: Casual dining motivators, December 2020
Casual Dining Barriers
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- Safety and cost concerns are obstacles casual restaurants must address
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- Figure 28: Casual dining barriers, December 2020
FSR Occasions
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- FSRs must continue bringing diners together, even at home
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- Figure 29: FSR occasions, December 2020
- Younger generations are key to off-peak occasion success
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- Figure 30: FSR occasions, by generation, December 2020
- Casual dining faces an identity crisis
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- Figure 31: FSR occasions by restaurant ordering, December 2020
FSR Motivators
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- FSRs can create value through safety precautions, promotions and quality kid-friendly fare
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- Figure 32: FSR motivators, December 2020
- Older generations need to feel at ease about on-premise FSR dining
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- Figure 33: FSR motivators, by generation, December 2020
FSR Alcohol Motivators
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- FSRs alcohol faces an uphill battle
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- Figure 34: FSR alcohol motivators, December 2020
- Combine alcohol deals with off-premise experiences to reach Hispanics
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- Figure 35: FSR alcohol motivators, by race and Hispanic origin, December 2020
- Proving value through convenience and discounts may fuel FSR alcoholic beverage purchases
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- Figure 36: TURF analysis – alcohol motivators, December 2020
Attitudes toward FSRs
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- FSR off-premise options are a double-edged sword
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- Figure 37: Attitudes toward FSRs, any agree, December 2020
- Consumers agree tech is impersonal but important
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- Figure 38: Attitudes toward FSRs, by generation, December 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 39: Total US retail sales and forecast of full-service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 40: Total US sales and forecast of limited-service eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- TURF Methodology
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- Figure 41: Table - TURF Analysis – Alcohol motivators, December 2020
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- Figure 42: FSR alcohol motivators, by generation, December 2020
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