Fathers are more likely to have bought childrenswear for their own children in the last 12 months than mothers. The research shows that 78% of men who are parents purchased childrenswear compared with 71% of women. This highlights a change in demographics compared with two years ago when women drove purchasing. Mothers of under-16s are also significantly more likely than their male counterparts to state that they are buying fewer children’s clothes as a direct result of COVID-19 since the start of the outbreak. This ties in with research showing that the COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately impacted women, who are more likely than men to agree that they are finding it harder to make ends meet as a result of the pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a significant drop in appetite for fashion, but children’s clothing has been much more resilient, dropping by 16% in 2020 to £6 billion from £7.1 billion compared with a 28% decline for the total clothing market. A lot of childrenswear purchasing is driven by replacement as products have shorter lifespans than adult clothing. The sector has also benefited from parents prioritising spend on their children over themselves. Although the January 2021 lockdown will slow the recovery of the market, the long-term prospects are that the market will return to growth by the second half of the year and new purchases will be driven by pent-up demand as people begin to socialise again, go on holiday and by a boost for back-to-school as part of the government’s four-step roadmap out of the lockdown announced on 22 February 2021.

The increased focus on value will continue to impact the size of the market, with 54% opting to shop at a specific retailer due to their low prices. Supermarkets remain the most popular places to buy childrenswear, with close to three fifths (57%) having purchased from one of the main grocery chains. Poundland has been looking to take advantage of the uncertain economic situation and has been expanding its Pep&Co shop-in-shops selling its fashion range including childrenswear from July 2020.

Children aged 10-14 are set to see the biggest rate of growth over the next five years, increasing by 5% between 2020 and 2025. This provides opportunities for retailers to increase their focus on the teen and tween fashion markets. The easing of restrictions in the second half of 2021 following prolonged national lockdowns is likely to drive pent-up demand for new clothes to wear for social events and going out among this fashion-conscious age group.

Key issues covered in this Report

  • The impact of COVID-19 and the third national lockdown on the childrenswear market.

  • Who are the main childrenswear buyers and what ages are they purchasing for.

  • How consumers’ shopping behaviour has changed since COVID-19.

  • How and where people have bought childrenswear in the last 12 months and growth in online purchasing.

  • The main reasons for choosing to shop at certain retailers for children’s clothing.

COVID-19: Market context

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. As the case level rose, the government ordered the closure of non-essential stores on 20 March.

A wider lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, exercise and work ‘if absolutely necessary’ followed on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to reopen, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July, and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a month-long lockdown from 5 November and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions.

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown.

On 22 February 2021, the government announced its four-step roadmap to easing restrictions in England. All children and students will return to face to face education in schools and colleges from 8 March. Outdoor gatherings of either six people or two households will be allowed from 29 March. Non-essential retail is set to open no earlier than 12 April 2021. Indoor hospitality and entertainment venues are set to open no earlier than 17 May.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, and with both the Pfizer-BioNTech. Oxford-AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccines licensed for use in the UK, the government aims to have all over-50s vaccinated by the end of April 2021.

Economic and other assumptions

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its November 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK GDP will have fallen by 11.3% in 2020, recovering by 5.5% in 2021 and 6.6% in 2022. GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID levels until Q4 2022. The central scenario has unemployment peaking at 7.5% in Q2 2021.

The current uncertainty means that there is wide variation on the range of forecasts, however, and this is reflected in the OBR’s own scenarios. In its upside scenario, economic activity returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by Q4 2021. Its more negative scenario, by contrast, would mean that GDP doesn’t recover until Q3 2024.

The second wave of infections and subsequent lockdowns means that the short-term prospects for the country are consistent with the OBR’s negative scenario, but this needs to be balanced against the fact that the vaccine rollout is ahead of even the OBR’s central scenario. Medium to long term, then, we are still basing our forecasts and market analysis on the OBR’s central economic scenario.

Products covered in this Report

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definitions:

  • The market size for childrenswear incorporates all clothing for children aged 0-15 years, including schoolwear.

  • Baby and infantswear relates specifically to clothing for children up to the age of 4 and includes bibs, but excludes nappies and disposable nappies.

Excluded:

  • Footwear is not included in this Report (for more information on this see Mintel’s Report Footwear: Inc Impact of COVID-19 – UK, July 2020).

  • Some children reach full adult sizes before they reach the top of this age range, and will shop in outlets that cater for fully grown men and women, rather than for children per se. The market sizes do not include this spending, as it is already included in data for womenswear and menswear. However, discussions of outlets used for shopping include outlets that sell adult sizes to children.

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