Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Key issues covered in this Report
- Definition
- COVID-19: Market context
- Economic and other assumptions
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on in-store bakeries
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on in-store bakeries, February 2021
- Opportunities and Challenges
- Re-emergence
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- Figure 3: Interest and experience with making and purchasing baked goods, December 2020
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- Figure 4: Baked goods purchase, by household income, December 2020
- Recovery
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- Figure 5: claims on new product introductions, bread products, % total, 2020
- Figure 6: claims on new product introductions, cakes, pastries, sweet goods and cookies, % total, 2020
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- ISB sales dip 2.4% amid pandemic disruption; bread rises above the rest
- Increased safety measures ease consumer health concerns
- #quaratinebaking has a short shelf life
- The ISB needs to improve its value proposition
- Extend the ISB experience online
- Put the BFY into ISB
Market Size and Forecast
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- ISB sales slip as a result of COVID-19 limitations
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on in-store bakeries
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- Figure 9: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on in-store bakeries, February 2021
- Lockdown
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
- COVID-19: US context
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, 2007-12
Segment Performance
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- Breads and rolls find growth amid lagging market sales
- Breakfast bakery faces steep competition
- Desserts may need to go smaller in the interim
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 12: Market share % of total (and share change 2018-20), by segment, 2020
Market Factors
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- ISB safety measures have made a dent in COVID-19 concerns
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- Figure 13: Baked goods from 7-Eleven in individual packaging
- Cautious consumers hesitant to hold gatherings for the foreseeable future
- COVID-19 accelerates eCommerce
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- Figure 14: Major grocery categories, online vs instore, February 2020
- The at-home baking craze cools down
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- Figure 15: Monthly social media mentions of at-home baking on Instagram, Pinterest and Twitter, March-November 2020
- Persisting unemployment favors the center store
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- Figure 16: U.S. unemployment, June 2018-November 2020
- Consumers have a fresh take on BFY eating
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- Figure 17: Opinions on food types, Net – any healthy, August 2020
- Standalone bakeries take a hit
Market Opportunities
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- Expand the in-store bakery to include an online experience
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- Figure 18: Examples of extended online engagement from grocery retailers
- Encourage convenient, affordable experimentation
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- Figure 19: Grocery retailer advertisements
- A baked good for everyone – appealing to specialty diets
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- Figure 20: Specialized diet-friendly baked goods
- Seasonal offerings are still an opportunity
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- Figure 21: Seasonal baked goods
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- The ISB expands its BFY territory
- Who needs a sheet cake right now, anyway?
- All the banana bread, none of the mess
Competitive Strategies
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- ISB offerings slowly catch up on BFY claims
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- Figure 22: Claims on new product introductions, bread products, % change, 2019-2020
- Figure 23: Claims on new product introductions, bread products, % total, 2020
- Figure 24: Claims on new product introductions, cakes, pastries, sweet goods and cookies, % change 2019-2020,
- Figure 25: Claims on new product introductions, cakes, pastries, sweet goods and cookies % total 2020,
- Big baked goods go small for smaller gatherings
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- Figure 26: Smaller sized baked goods
- The ISB takes a page out of home bakers’ playbook
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- Figure 27: Trending bakery items
- Figure 28: Top baking hashtags, Pinterest and Twitter, March-November 2020
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- Figure 29: Lemon and berry-flavored baked goods
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- The aisle continues to dominate baked goods purchases
- Despite sales declines, a strong share are eating more ISB items
- The aisle is pragmatic; the ISB is an experience
- Some COVID-19 safety concerns linger
- eCommerce participation has nowhere to go but up
- Consumers want to have their cake and health goals too
Baked Good Purchase
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- ISB breads fall behind packaged options
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- Figure 30: Baked goods purchase, December 2020
- Young consumers are less-engaged in baked goods
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- Figure 31: Baked goods purchase, by age, December 2020
- Parents are engaged ISB users
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- Figure 32: Baked goods purchase, by parental status, December 2020
- Consumers recognize that the ISB comes at a premium
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- Figure 33: Baked goods purchase - nets, by household income, December 2020
Change in Baked Goods Consumption
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- More than a third have increased their ISB patronage during COVID-19
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- Figure 34: Change in baked goods consumption, December 2020
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- Figure 35: Baked goods purchases, November 2019-December 2020
- Keep the Millennial momentum going
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- Figure 36: Change in baked goods consumption, by age, December 2020
- Convenience rules with dads
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- Figure 37: Change in baked goods consumption, by parental status and gender, December 2020
Reasons for Shopping the Aisle
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- The aisle wins for affordability, longer shelf life and range
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- Figure 38: Reasons for choosing baked goods from the aisle over the ISB, December 2020
- Highlight convenience to win over younger consumers
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- Figure 39: Reasons for choosing baked goods from the aisle over the ISB, by age, December 2020
- Target dads with health and flavor innovation
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- Figure 40: Reasons for choosing baked goods from the aisle over the ISB, by parental status and gender, December 2020
Reasons for Shopping the ISB
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- In-store bakeries should feel more like a bakery, less like a store
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- Figure 41: Reasons for choosing baked goods from the ISB over the aisle, December 2020
- Experimentation and customization are distinct advantages for those 25-34
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- Figure 42: Reasons for choosing baked goods from the ISB over the aisle, by age, December 2020
- Figure 43: Milk Bar sampler box
- Position the ISB as a convenient option for special and everyday occasions
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- Figure 44: Reasons for choosing baked goods from the ISB over the aisle, by food and drink segmentation, December 2020
ISB Attitudes
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- A quarter of consumers have lingering safety anxieties around the ISB
- Nurture impulsivity
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- Figure 45: ISB attitudes, December 2020
- Those under 45 the most concerned about safety
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- Figure 46: ISB attitudes, by age, December 2020
Interest and Experience with Making and Purchasing Baked Goods
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- There’s opportunity to expand online participation
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- Figure 47: Interest and experience with making and purchasing baked goods, December 2020
- Consumers under 45 more receptive to new methods
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- Figure 48: Interest and experience with making and purchasing baked goods, by age, December 2020
- Convert mix users with take and bake
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- Figure 49: Interest and experience with making and purchasing baked goods by baked good purchase, December 2020
Interest in Innovation by Baked Good
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- Embrace freshness and health
- Breads can rise to artisanal, wellness challenges
- Sweets can bring the flavor
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- Figure 50: Interest in ISB baked good innovation, December 2020
- Freshness the key to inspiring stronger engagement from older consumers
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- Figure 51: Interest in ISB baked good innovation – freshly made, by age, December 2020
- Parents seeking out healthier options
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- Figure 52: Interest in ISB baked good innovation, net – any baked good, by parental status, December 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 54: Average household spending on in-store bakeries, by segment, 2015-20
- Figure 55: Total US retail sales of in-store bakeries, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
- Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery desserts, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breads and rolls, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breads and rolls, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store breakfast bakery, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store breakfast bakery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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Food and Drink Consumer Segmentation
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