With hygiene in the spotlight, the soap, bath and shower products category has seen an estimated record growth of 32.8% to £840 million in 2020.

The pandemic has put a focus on hand hygiene, which will remain in the face of the latest nationwide lockdown on 5 January 2021. Usage of hand sanitiser has jumped from 41% of adults in 2018 to 73% in 2020, 65% of adults have washed their hands more often and 82% of hand sanitiser users have used it more regularly in the last six months. This has resulted in intense competition in the soap and sanitiser segments, resulting in new brands and premiumisation.

As the vaccine is rolled out, there is a threat that hygiene behaviours may start to slip later on in 2021. Brands can look to keep consumers engaged by driving long-term habits through NPD in self-timing soaps or apps that set hand-washing reminders. Innovating in products suitable for on the go will also ensure usage remains high, such as packs that fit into wallets/pockets or by expanding into multipurpose sanitisers.

There are opportunities for brands to tap into hand health concerns, with 42% of SBS users concerned about these products drying out their skin. Soap brands can innovate in moisturising and skin-friendly claims such as natural ingredients and microbiome-friendly formulas. For shower/bath brands, sustainability and wellbeing trends are gaining traction and there is still potential to expand on these claims with stress-relieving shower/bath ‘insperiences’ and environmentally friendly product formulas.

• The impact of COVID-19 on the soap, bath and shower category.

• How the category will fare post-COVID-19.

• The value of individual segments and brand performance in 2019 and 2020.

• Launch activity and opportunities for 2021.

• Changes in washing behaviours since COVID-19.

• Product usage and frequency of washing behaviours.

• Concerns about using soap, bath and shower products.

• Interest in innovation for soap, bath and shower products and hand sanitisers.

This Report covers the UK retail market for soap, bath and shower products (including specific male, female and family products – ie those that can be used on children and babies) and includes the following:

• Toilet soaps in both bar and liquid form, including hand washes

• Hand sanitisers

• Bath additives such as foam, crème, oil and bubble bath, bath pearls and beads and solid bath products such as salts, grains, crystals and cubes

• Shower products such as gels, mousses, body shampoos and body washes

• Products marketed as soap-free, such as Dove or Oil of Olay moisturising bars, as well as products such as Oilatum, which are formulated specifically for problem skin.

This Report excludes facial cleansers such as scrubs and foams, which are included in Mintel Reports Women's Facial Skincare: Inc Impact of COVID-19 – UK, August 2020 and Men's Haircare and Skincare – UK, March 2020.

This Report also excludes other bodycare products, used outside of a cleansing routine, as well as wash accessories such as sponges, loofahs, mitts etc.

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. As the case level rose, the government ordered the closure of non-essential stores on 20 March.

A wider lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, exercise and work ‘if absolutely necessary’ followed on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to reopen, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July, and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a full month-long lockdown from 5 November and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions.

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown. There is no defined end date for the lockdown, although the legislation regarding the English lockdown that was presented to Parliament extends to 31 March.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, and with both the Pfizer-BioNTech and the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines licenced for use in the UK, the government aims to offer a vaccine to 15 million people by mid-February.

Our core assumptions on the path of the pandemic had always included an expectation of severe disruption to markets and consumers’ lifestyles well into 2021, with a strong likelihood that the virus would still be with us even into 2022. Although the second wave of infections and subsequent lockdown puts us towards the negative end of our initial expectations, these developments are still broadly consistent with our previous assumptions.

Similarly, Mintel had factored in the likelihood that an effective vaccine would be available from early to mid-2021. The licensing of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines puts us slightly ahead of that assumption, but the challenge associated with rolling out a new vaccination programme to millions of people means that our previous assumptions are still broadly consistent with the new reality.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its November 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK GDP will have fallen by 11.3% in 2020, recovering by 5.5% in 2021 and 6.6% in 2022. GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID levels until Q4 2022. The central scenario has unemployment peaking at 7.5% in Q2 2021.

The current uncertainty means that there is wide variation on the range of forecasts, however, and this is reflected in the OBR’s own scenarios. In its upside scenario, economic activity returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by Q4 2021. Its more negative scenario, by contrast, would mean that GDP doesn’t recover until Q3 2024.

The second wave of infections and subsequent lockdowns means that the short-term prospects for the country are consistent with the OBR’s negative scenario, but this needs to be balanced against the fact that the vaccine rollout is ahead of even the OBR’s central scenario. Medium to long term, then, we are still basing our forecasts and market analysis on the OBR’s central economic scenario.