Some 41% of consumers took a camping or caravanning holiday in the three years ending October 2020. This is 2 percentage points up from Mintel’s previous research in October 2018. In view of the disruption caused by COVID-19, this is a strong performance. COVID-19 has severely disrupted the market along with all travel in 2020. However the overall performance has been better than many other holiday types, with holiday parks, campsites and campervan holidays experiencing high levels of demand from July to October as consumers turned to relatively ‘safe’ outdoor staycations in rural and coastal locations.

2021 is likely to be a transitional year for camping and caravanning. The first quarter has been effectively wiped out by new UK-wide lockdown restrictions. The expected rollout of COVID-19 vaccines should begin to drive up demand during the second quarter but more strongly in the third quarter. However, until the vaccine programme has been substantially delivered, social distancing requirements in parks and campsites will continue to inhibit capacity.

The camping and caravanning market is forecast to return to pre-COVID levels from 2022 onwards, and then to continue on a steady growth curve. The biggest threat to market growth is the competitive challenge from other domestic and overseas holiday types once pent-up demand is released after the pandemic. Perceptions that camping and caravanning is only for the ‘hard-core’ are also a barrier to increased take-up.

Significant opportunities include growing demand for premium static caravan/lodge accommodation, glamping and campervan rentals/purchases.

• The impact of COVID-19 on the camping and caravanning market.

• The short-term and long-term prospects for the camping and caravanning market and opportunities in specific segments of the market.

• Major players, supply trends and product innovations in the industry, prior to and during COVID-19.

• Consumer experience of camping and caravanning and the key attractions of this type of holiday.

• Consumer preferences and opportunities for holidays/rentals and accommodation purchases.

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. A full UK lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, exercise and work followed on 23 March. Relaxations to lockdown rules were announced in the week of 23 May, including the gradual reopening of non-essential retailers, and increased opportunities for social interaction across households.

Pubs, restaurants, hotels and other accommodation, as well as many leisure facilities and tourist attractions, were allowed to reopen from 4 July 2020, with social distancing and other COVID-secure health & safety requirements in place. Restrictions on overseas travel began to be lifted from 10 July 2020, with quarantine requirements later imposed on travellers entering or returning to the UK from most destinations.

On 8 July 2020, the government announced that it would temporarily reduce VAT for hotels along with other hospitality and accommodation providers from 20% to 5%. This was initially planned to last until 12 January 2021. On 24 September, the rate cut was extended to 31 March,2021.

On 14 October 2020, following a rising ‘second wave’ of infections, the government introduced a three-tier system of restrictions across England, with ‘Medium’, ‘High’ and ‘Very High’ alert levels. Those in the ‘Very High’ tier were advised to avoid travelling outside of their area.

Between 5 November and 1 December 2020, an England-wide lockdown was introduced. All leisure and hospitality businesses, including hotels and other accommodation, were closed to all guests apart “from those who have to travel for work purposes and for a limited number of other exemptions”.

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase, and after a brief relaxation for Christmas Day, a full national lockdown was announced on the evening of 4 January 2021. There is no defined end date for the lockdown: the legislation presented to Parliament extends to 31 March 2021.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December, and with the Pfizer-BioNTech, Oxford-AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccines licenced for use in the UK, the government aims to offer a vaccine to 15 million people by mid-February.

Much of this Report was prepared in December 2020, before the announcement of the January 2021 lockdown, and when the extent of the vaccine rollout was less clear.

However, the content was reassessed and, where necessary, adjusted on 8 January 2021, in order to ensure that our analysis and our forecast expectations still hold true.

Our core assumptions on the path of the pandemic had always included an expectation of severe disruption to markets and consumers’ lifestyles well into 2021, with a strong likelihood that the virus would still be with us even into 2022. Although the second wave of infections and subsequent lockdown puts us towards the negative end of our initial expectations, these developments are still broadly consistent with our previous assumptions.

Similarly, Mintel had factored in the likelihood that an effective vaccine would be available from early- to-mid 2021. The licensing of the Pfizer-BioNTech, Oxford-AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccines puts us slightly ahead of that assumption, but the challenge associated with rolling out a new vaccination programme to millions of people means that our previous assumptions are still broadly consistent with the new reality.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its November 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK GDP will have fallen by 11.3% in 2020, recovering by 5.5% in 2021, and 6.6% in 2022. GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID levels until the fourth quarter of 2022. The central scenario has unemployment peaking at 7.5% in Q2 2021.

The current uncertainty means that there is wide variation on the range of forecasts, however, and this is reflected in the OBR’s own scenarios. In its upside scenario, economic activity returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by Q4 2021. Its more negative scenario, by contrast, would mean that GDP doesn’t recover until Q3 2024.

The second wave of infections and subsequent lockdown means that the short-term prospects for the country are consistent with the OBR’s negative scenario, but this needs to be balanced against the fact that the vaccine rollout is ahead of even the OBR’s central scenario. Medium-to-long-term, then, we are still basing our forecasts and market analysis on the OBR’s central economic scenario.

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definitions:

Camping and caravanning is defined as holidays that use tents, trailer tents, touring caravans, caravan holiday homes, park homes, and motorhomes or campervans as accommodation. Holidaymakers may own or rent their equipment, and can travel to their destination carrying their tent, towing their caravan or trailer tent, or driving their motorhome/campervan. Alternatively, they can stay in caravan holiday homes (statics), timber-clad lodges, tents, or ‘glamping’ accommodation such as pods, yurts, or safari tents that are already in place at the holiday park or camp/caravan site.

Data on the size of the domestic market is for Great Britain rather than the United Kingdom (ie Northern Ireland is not included), sourced from VisitBritain’s GBTS (Great Britain Tourism Survey). Data for the overseas market is based on Mintel estimates.