Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Boost to pizzas and pies from more eating at home during COVID-19
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- Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on pizzas and savoury pastries, 12 January 2021
- The market
- Big increase in 2020 sales of pizza during COVID-19
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- Figure 2: Forecast of UK retail value sales of chilled and frozen pizza, 2015-25 (prepared 14 December 2020)
- At-home meals during COVID-19 boost savoury pastries
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- Figure 3: Forecast of UK retail value sales of chilled and frozen savoury pies and other savoury pastry products, 2015-25 (prepared 14 December 2020)
- COVID-19 increases spotlight on health
- Supermarket pizza competes with takeaway/home delivery pizza
- Decline projected in some core younger eaters of pizza
- Companies and brands
- Chilled pizza dominated by own-label
- Own-label sees the strongest boost in frozen pizza
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- Figure 4: Leading brands’ sales in the frozen pizza market, by value, 2019/20*
- Ginsters number one in chilled savoury pastries
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- Figure 5: Leading brands’ sales in the chilled savoury pies and pastries market, by value, 2019/20*
- Own-label enjoys most of growth in frozen savoury pastries
- Growth in vegan claims in pizza
- Retail pizzas continue their efforts to replicate the takeaway experience
- Vegan claims rise in savoury pastries over 2018-20
- Growth in premium launches in pies/pastries
- Dr Oetker remains the top advertiser in pizza, supporting Chicago Town
- Ginsters returns to TV, pushing Cornish heritage
- The consumer
- More than eight in 10 people eat pizza
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- Figure 6: Frequency of eating pizza in the last 3 months, September 2020
- Lots of toppings adds most value to supermarket pizza
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- Figure 7: Attributes buyers would pay more for when buying pizza from a supermarket, September 2020
- Taste and price most important purchase drivers
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- Figure 8: Factors influencing choice of pizza, September 2020
- More choice of toppings would increase demand
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- Figure 9: Behaviours relating to eating and buying pizza, September 2020
- Eight in 10 people eat savoury pies or other pastries
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- Figure 10: Usage of different types of pies and savoury pastry products, September 2020
- Lots of filling most sought attribute of a pie/pasty
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- Figure 11: Attributes looked for when buying pies and pasties, September 2020
- Pies/pastries influenced by world cuisines an opportunity
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- Figure 12: Behaviours related to eating and buying pies, September 2020
Issues and Insights
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- Competing with takeaway/home delivery crucial to continued growth
- Replicating takeaway/home delivery important
- Lots of toppings adds most value to supermarket pizza
- Pizzas for sharing preferred to individual pizzas
- Half interested in fresh supermarket pizza delivered
- Demand for both traditional recipes and world cuisines needs to be explored in pies/pasties
- Traditional recipes have more appeal than new ones
- But pies/pastries influenced by world cuisines still an opportunity
- Offering healthier choices important to future sales of pizzas and pies
- A quarter prioritise health when choosing pizza
- Better-for-you pizza toppings spark widespread interest
- Healthier pies/pasties would encourage more eating
- Vegetarian and vegan products offer more opportunities
- Plant-based pizzas have strong appeal
- Vegetarian/vegan of significant importance in pies/pasties
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Big increase in 2020 sales of pizza during COVID-19
- Only some of the sales gains in pizza will be lost in 2021
- At-home meals during COVID-19 boost for savoury pastries
- Income squeeze will benefit savoury pastry sales
- COVID-19 increases spotlight on health
- Supermarket pizza competes with takeaway/home delivery pizza
- Decline projected in some core younger eaters of pizza
Market Size and Forecast
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- Boost to pizzas and pies from more eating at home during COVID-19
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- Figure 13: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on pizzas and savoury pastries, 12 January 2021
- Big increase in 2020 sales of pizza
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- Figure 14: Total UK retail value and volume sales of chilled and frozen pizza, 2015-25 (prepared 14 December 2020)
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- Figure 15: Forecast of UK retail value sales of chilled and frozen pizza, 2015-25 (prepared 14 December 2020)
- At-home meals boost for savoury pastries
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- Figure 16: Total UK retail value and volume sales of chilled and frozen savoury pies and other savoury pastry products, 2015-25 (prepared 14 December 2020)
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- Figure 17: Forecast of UK retail value sales of chilled and frozen savoury pies and other savoury pastry products, 2015-25 (prepared 14 December 2020)
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 18: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-25 (prepared 25 November 2020)
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 19: Growth in value and volume retail sales of pizza, 2009-13
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Frozen pizza sees the strongest value growth
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- Figure 20: UK retail value and volume sales of chilled and frozen pizza, by segment, 2015-20
- Frozen pastries’ growth outstrips that of chilled
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- Figure 21: Total UK retail value and volume sales of savoury pies and pastries, by chilled and frozen, 2015-20
- Pies the biggest segment of savoury pastries
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- Figure 22: Total UK retail value and volume sales of savoury pies and pastries, by sub-segment, 2018-20
Market Drivers
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- 2021 lockdowns will support more eating at home
- Strong interest in healthy eating
- COVID-19 increases spotlight on health
- Government emphasis on health intensifies under COVID-19
- Supermarket pizza competes with takeaway/home delivery pizza
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- Figure 23: Any ordering of takeaway/home delivery from a pizza/Italian venue since the start of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, by age, July 2020
- Making pizza and pies from scratch the other side of competition
- Plant-based trend influencing pizzas and pies
- Decline projected in some core younger eaters of pizza
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- Figure 24: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2015-25
- Income squeeze will hit discretionary spend
- Brexit trade deal will mean minimal impact on price of pizzas and pies
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Chilled pizza dominated by own-label
- Ginsters number one in chilled savoury pastries
- Private label dominates pizza launch activity in 2020
- Growth in vegan claims in pizza
- Retail pizzas continue their efforts to replicate the takeaway experience
- International flavours can help to keep consumers engaged
- Vegan claims rise in savoury pastries over 2018-20
- Growth in premium launches in pies/pastries
- Dr Oetker remains the top advertiser in pizza, supporting Chicago Town
Market Share
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- Chilled pizza dominated by own-label
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- Figure 25: Leading brands’ sales in the chilled pizza market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
- Own-label sees the strongest boost in frozen pizza
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- Figure 26: Leading brands’ sales in the frozen pizza market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
- Ginsters number one in chilled savoury pastries
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- Figure 27: Leading brands’ sales in the chilled savoury pies and pastries market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
- Own-label enjoys most of growth in frozen savoury pastries
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- Figure 28: Leading brands’ sales in the frozen savoury pies and pastries market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Pizzas
- Private label dominates launch activity in 2020
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- Figure 29: New product launches in the UK retail pizza market, by private label and brands, 2015-20
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- Figure 30: Share of new product launches in the UK retail pizza market, by top ten companies, 2015-20
- Health claims are rare in the pizza category
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- Figure 31: Share of new product launches in the UK retail pizza market, by health claims, 2015-20 (sorted by 2019)
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- Figure 32: One Planet Pizza Three Cheezly Margherita, 2020
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- Figure 33: Examples of single-serve, calorie-controlled pizza launches, 2019-20
- Growth in vegan claims in 2019
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- Figure 34: Share of new product launches in the UK retail pizza market with vegetarian/vegan claims, 2015-20
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- Figure 35: Examples of vegan pizza launches, 2020
- Growth in premium claims over 2015-19
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- Figure 36: Share of new product launches in the UK retail pizza market with premium claims, 2015-20
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- Figure 37: Examples of own-label premium sourdough pizza launches, 2020
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- Figure 38: Examples of pizzas in the Gino D’Acampo range, 2019
- Retail pizzas continue their efforts to replicate the takeaway experience
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- Figure 39: Goodfellas combines two popular fast foods with its Cheeseburger Pizza, 2020
- Figure 40: Tesco Takeaway Stuffed Crust Cheese Pizza – before and After
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- Figure 41: Examples of stuffed-crust pizza launches by Iceland, 2020
- International flavours can help to keep consumers engaged
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- Figure 42: Examples of pizza launches featuring international flavours, 2020
- Pies and savoury pastry products
- Private label extends its lead on launches in 2020
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- Figure 43: New product launches in the UK pies and savoury pastry products market, by private label and brands, 2015-20
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- Figure 44: Share of new product launches in the UK pies and savoury pastry products market, by top ten companies, 2015-20
- Healthier variants are underexplored in pies
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- Figure 45: Share of new product launches in the UK pies and savoury pastry products market, by health claims, 2015-20 (sorted by 2019)
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- Figure 46: Wyke Farms Deep Fill Mature Cheddar Cheese & Onion Pies, 2020
- Vegan claims rise over 2018-20
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- Figure 47: Share of new product launches in the UK pies and savoury pastry products market with vegetarian/vegan claims, 2015-20
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- Figure 48: Examples of vegan pie/savoury pastry product launches, 2020
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- Figure 49: Examples of vegan sausage roll launches, 2020
- Growth in premium launches in 2019
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- Figure 50: Share of new product launches in the UK retail pies and savoury pastry products market with premium claims, 2015-20
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- Figure 51: Examples of premium own-label savoury pastry products launches, 2020
- Pie makers link up with beer brands
- A few brands explore international flavours
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- Figure 52: Savoury pastry products launches with international flavours, 2020
- Sustainable packaging is underexplored in both pizzas and pies
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- Figure 53: Examples of pizza and pie launches with environmentally-friendly packaging, 2019-20
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Advertising spend on pizzas declines in 2020
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- Figure 54: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on pizza, 2016/20
- Dr Oetker remains the top spender, supporting masterbrand Chicago Town…
- …and spends on Ristorante
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- Figure 55: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on pizza, by top advertisers, 2019-20
- Nomad’s Goodfella’s spotlights gangster associations
- PizzaExpress launches The Hunt to win £55,000
- Pies also see decline in spend
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- Figure 56: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on pies, 2016/20
- Ginsters returns to TV, pushing Cornish heritage
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- Figure 57: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on pies, by top advertisers, 2019-20
- Pukka Pies positions itself as the People’s Pie
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 58: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, November 2020
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 59: Key metrics for selected brands, November 2020
- Brand attitudes: Higgidy seen as most innovative brand
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- Figure 60: Attitudes, by brand, November 2020
- Brand personality: Chicago Town more fun than other brands
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- Figure 61: Brand personality – macro image, November 2020
- Ginsters stands out as being seen as the most traditional brand
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- Figure 62: Brand personality – micro image, November 2020
- Brand analysis
- Chicago Town seen as most delicious brand
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- Figure 63: User profile of Chicago Town, November 2020
- Higgidy stands out as the most innovative brand
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- Figure 64: User profile of Higgidy, November 2020
- Goodfella’s strongly associated with being a family brand
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- Figure 65: User profile of Goodfella’s, November 2020
- Pukka Pies seen as the most comforting brand
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- Figure 66: User profile of Pukka Pies, November 2020
- Dr. Oetker Ristorante less seen as a family brand
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- Figure 67: User profile of Dr. Oetker Ristorante, November 2020
- Ginsters beats other brands on being seen as traditional
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- Figure 68: User profile of Ginsters, November 2020
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- More than eight in 10 people eat pizza
- Lots of toppings adds most value to supermarket pizza
- A third of buyers prepared to pay more for premium ingredients
- A quarter prioritise health when choosing pizza
- More choice of toppings would increase demand
- Eight in 10 people eat savoury pies or other pastries
- Lots of filling most sought attribute of a pie/pasty
- Pies/pastries influenced by world cuisines an opportunity
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour
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- People eat at home more during COVID-19
- More remote working and eating at home expected long term
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- Figure 69: Concerns about going to restaurants/bars indoors, 25 June-19 November 2020
- A quarter expect to spend less on takeaway/home delivery in November 2020
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- Figure 70: Expected changes to spending on takeaways/home delivery and dining out over the next month, November 2020
- More meals shared with friends/family during COVID-19
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- Figure 71: Incidence of eating with family/other members of your household, by age, 23 April-7 May 2020
- More cooking from scratch but room for convenient options
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- Figure 72: Changes to cooking from scratch (ie using/preparing meals with raw ingredients) since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, by age, 23 April-7 May 2020
- Pandemic increases focus on health
- A quarter prioritise health in pizza but more want healthier options
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- Figure 73: Changes in eating healthily as a priority since the COVID-19 outbreak, by gender and age, 2-11 November 2020
- COVID-19 expected to further boost flexitarian and plant-based trends
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- Figure 74: ‘The COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak has made a vegan diet more appealing’, by age, 23 April-7 May 2020
Usage of Pizza
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- More than eight in 10 people eat pizza
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- Figure 75: Any eating of pizza in the last 3 months, by type, September 2020
- Younger and family bias to eating of all types of pizza
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- Figure 76: Frequency of eating pizza in the last 3 months, September 2020
Attributes Worth Paying More For
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- Lots of toppings adds most value to supermarket pizza
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- Figure 77: Attributes buyers would pay more for when buying pizza from a supermarket, September 2020
- A third will pay more for stuffed crust
- A third of buyers prepared to pay more for premium ingredients
Factors Influencing Choice of Pizza
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- Taste and price most important purchase drivers
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- Figure 78: Factors influencing choice of pizza, September 2020
- A quarter prioritise health when choosing pizza
- Better-for-you toppings spark widespread interest
Behaviours Related to Eating and Buying Pizza
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- More choice of toppings would increase demand
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- Figure 79: Behaviours relating to eating and buying pizza, September 2020
- Vegetarian and vegan pizzas offer more opportunities
- Pizzas for sharing preferred to individual pizzas
Usage of Pies
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- Eight in ten people eat savoury pies or other pastries
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- Figure 80: Number of different types of savoury pastry products eaten, September 2020
- Sausage/other rolls most eaten savoury pastry product
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- Figure 81: Usage of different types of pies and savoury pastry products, September 2020
- Eating of pasties and pork pies shows male bias
- 16-24 year olds less interested in savoury pies and quiche
What People Look For When Buying Pies or Pasties
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- Lots of filling most sought attribute of a pie/pasty
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- Figure 82: Attributes looked for when buying pies and pasties, September 2020
- Traditional recipes have more appeal than new ones
- Vegetarian/vegan of smaller but significant importance
Behaviours Related to Eating and Buying Pies
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- Pies/pastries influenced by world cuisines an opportunity
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- Figure 83: Behaviours related to eating and buying pies, September 2020
- Better-for-you pies/pasties would encourage more eating
- Locally-produced home delivered products have appeal
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Share
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- Figure 84: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the chilled pizza market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
- Figure 85: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the frozen pizza market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
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- Figure 86: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the chilled savoury pies and pastries market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
- Figure 87: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the frozen savoury pies and pastries market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
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Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Figure 88: Share of new product launches in the UK retail pizza market, by storage, 2015-20
- Figure 89: Share of new product launches in the UK retail savoury pastries market, by storage, 2015-20
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Appendix - Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Figure 90: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on pizza, by top brands, 2019-20
- Figure 91: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on pies, by top brands, 2019-20
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