When it comes to what consumers want most a focus on lots of filling in pies/pasties or lots of toppings in pizza will add the most value to these products, given that 50% of buyers look for the former and 43% of buyers of pizza are prepared to pay more for the latter. It is these attributes therefore that are most likely to justify a price premium for brands.

More meals and snacks being eaten at home during the COVID-pandemic boosted retail sales of pizzas and pies, resulting in a near 12% increase in retail sales of pizza to nearly £1.27 billion and an 11% increase in sales of savoury pastries to £1.26 billion in 2020. As well as more home working, the loss of dining out opportunities during lockdowns and hesitance towards foodservice contributed to the growth. The new wave of lockdowns starting in 2021 will further support sales.

Showing the importance of supermarkets replicating what is available from pizzas in takeaway/home delivery, 43% of eaters and buyers of supermarket pizza prefer to buy the latter over the supermarket offerings. As well as launching ‘Takeaway-style’ ranges, pizza meal deals will be important to holding on to some of the gains made during the COVID-19 pandemic.

How healthy pizza is, is only prioritised by 26% of buyers. That pizza is a treat for most plays a role in the limited interest in healthy options. Better-for-you toppings are the most promising way for pizza brands to tap into interest in healthy eating. That these spark more interest than low-calorie options echoes the keen demand for generous offerings from pizzas.

Key issues covered in this Report

  • The impact of COVID-19 on sales of pizzas and savoury pastries, and consumer behaviours.

  • Frequency of eating different types of pizza, and types of savoury pastries eaten.

  • Attributes worth paying more for when buying pizza and those most looked for when buying savoury pies/pasties.

  • New launch activity in pizzas and savoury pastries, and perceptions and usage of the brands in these categories.

  • Behaviours related to eating and buying pizzas and pies.

COVID-19: Market context

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. As the case level rose, the government ordered the closure of non-essential stores on 20 March. 

A wider lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, exercise and work ‘if absolutely necessary’ followed on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to re-open, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a full month-long lockdown from 5 November, and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions. 

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown. There is no defined end date for the lockdown, although the legislation regarding to the English lockdown that was presented to Parliament extends to 31 March.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, and with both the Pfizer-BioNTech and the Oxford-AstraZenica vaccines licenced for use in the UK, the government aims to offer a vaccine to 15 million people by mid-February.

Impact of the January lockdowns and the vaccination rollout

Much of this Report was prepared in December 2020, before the announcement of the January 2021 lockdowns.

However, the content was reassessed and, where necessary, adjusted on 12 January, in order to ensure that our analysis and our forecast expectations still hold true. We have also reassessed the content in the light of the progress of the vaccine rollout, and the resolution of the Brexit negotiations.

Our core assumptions on the path of the pandemic had always included an expectation of severe disruption to markets and consumers’ lifestyles well into 2021, with a strong likelihood that the virus would still be with us even into 2022. Although the second wave of infections and subsequent lockdown puts us towards the negative end of our initial expectations, these developments are still broadly consistent with our previous assumptions.

Similarly, Mintel had factored in the likelihood that an effective vaccine would be available from early- to-mid 2021. The licensing of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines puts us slightly ahead of that assumption, but the challenge associated with rolling out a new vaccination programme to millions of people means that our previous assumptions are still broadly consistent with the new reality.

Economic and other assumptions

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its November 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK GDP will have fallen by 11.3% in 2020, recovering by 5.5% in 2021, and 6.6% in 2022. GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until the fourth quarter of 2022. The central scenario has unemployment peaking at 7.5% in Q2 2021.

The current uncertainty, however, means there is wide variation on the range of forecasts, and this is reflected in the OBR’s own scenarios. In its upside scenario, economic activity returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by Q4 2021. Its more negative scenario, by contrast, would mean that GDP doesn’t recover until Q3 2024.

The second wave of infections and subsequent lockdowns means that the short-term prospects for the country are consistent with the OBR’s negative scenario, but this needs to be balanced against the fact that the vaccine rollout is ahead of even the OBR’s central scenario. Medium- to long-term, then, we are still basing our forecasts and market analysis on the OBR’s central economic scenario.

Products covered in this Report

This Report examines the UK retail market for pizzas and savoury pastries.

Mintel’s definition for pizza includes frozen and chilled products sold through the grocery retail channel for consumption in the home.

It excludes pizza purchased and eaten in restaurants, and takeaway/home-delivery pizzas, however references and comparisons to these sectors will be made where relevant.

Mintel’s definition of a savoury pastry is a product that comprises pastry with a filling, be that meat or vegetable. It includes: pies, pasties, pork pies, quiche, sausage/other rolls and slices. The market size includes chilled and frozen savoury pastries.

Savoury pastries sold through foodservice outlets (eg pubs, cafés) are excluded.

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