The changes to consumer behaviour brought about by COVID-19 are clearly evident in the fact that 33% of those who cook/prepare meals say they have been cooking from scratch more often since the outbreak. Some 80% of these say they intend to continue with this over the next 12 months, signalling the lasting impact of these shifts.

The COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak has seen more meal occasions take place at home, due to the lockdowns and restrictions imposed across the UK since March 2020. The latest wave of infections and the national lockdowns from January 2021 will see the same continue well into 2021. The calls for people to stay or work at home and limitations on and hesitance towards visiting foodservice have all played a role in more meals at home. This shift has fuelled rapid growth in food sales through retail. With people expected to continue to work from home in the future more than before, this will give a lasting uplift to at-home meal occasions beyond the outbreak.

Scratch cooking in the household rises sharply among over-55s, lesser time pressures a key factor here. The projected growth of over-55s thus spells good news for products catering to scratch cooking and puts pressure on prepared products. Meanwhile, however, the ‘boomerang’ trend of young adults living with their parents stands to have the opposite effect, curbing this group’s involvement in cooking and hence their skillset, potentially driving the demand for prepared products in the long term.

Consumer interest in recreating restaurant-style meals at home presents opportunities for NPD and marketing, this demand fuelled by curbs to consumer spending and worries around spending time in busy public spaces even once restrictions lift. Restaurant brands could look to expand their retail offering, while ingredient brands and grocers can appeal by catering to the interest in learning how to make homemade versions of takeaway favourites, cited by 60% of people who are responsible for cooking/preparing meals at home.

• The impact of COVID-19 on people’s cooking habits.

• Types of meals cooked most often in households.

• Factors most important for meals by everyday and leisure occasions.

• Consumer attitudes towards cooking at home.

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January, with a small number of cases in February. The government focused on the ‘contain’ stage of its strategy, with the country continuing to operate much as normal. As the case level rose, the government ordered the closure of non-essential stores on 20 March.

A wider lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, exercise and work ‘if absolutely necessary’ followed on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to reopen, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July, and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a full month-long lockdown from 5 November and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions. 

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown. There is no defined end date for the lockdown, although the legislation regarding to the English lockdown that was presented to Parliament extends to 31 March.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, and with both the Pfizer-BioNTech and the Oxford-AstraZenica vaccines licenced for use in the UK, the government aims to offer a vaccine to 15 million people by mid-February.

Much of this Report was prepared in December 2020, before the announcement of the wave of lockdowns from January.

However, the content was reassessed and, where necessary, adjusted on 12 January, in order to ensure that our analysis still holds true. We have also reassessed the content in the light of the progress of the vaccine rollout, and the resolution of the Brexit negotiations.

Our core assumptions on the path of the pandemic had always included an expectation of severe disruption to markets and consumers’ lifestyles well into 2021, with a strong likelihood that the virus would still be with us even into 2022. Although the second wave of infections and subsequent lockdowns put us towards the negative end of our initial expectations, these developments are still broadly consistent with our previous assumptions.

Similarly, Mintel had factored in the likelihood that an effective vaccine would be available from early- to-mid 2021. The licensing of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines puts us slightly ahead of that assumption, but the challenge associated with rolling out a new vaccination programme to millions of people means that our previous assumptions are still broadly consistent with the new reality.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its November 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK GDP will have fallen by 11.3% in 2020, recovering by 5.5% in 2021 and 6.6% in 2022. GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID levels until Q4 2022. The central scenario has unemployment peaking at 7.5% in Q2 2021.

The current uncertainty means that there is wide variation on the range of forecasts, however, and this is reflected in the OBR’s own scenarios. In its upside scenario, economic activity returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by Q4 2021. Its more negative scenario, by contrast, would mean that GDP doesn’t recover until Q3 2024.

The second wave of infections and subsequent lockdowns means that the short-term prospects for the country are consistent with the OBR’s negative scenario, but this needs to be balanced against the fact that the vaccine rollout is ahead of even the OBR’s central scenario. Medium- to long-term, then, we are still basing our forecasts and market analysis on the OBR’s central economic scenario.

This Report looks at consumers’ behaviours and attitudes related to cooking in the home. It explores households’ typical meal preparation, the behaviour of home cooks, the factors most important in determining choice of meals for everyday and leisure occasions and attitudes towards cooking.