Table of Contents
Executive Summary – Europe – The Market
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- The market
- The impact of the Brexit deal on the rest of Europe
- Sector size and forecast
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- Figure 2: Europe: Retail sales by food retailers, excluding VAT, 2014-19
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- Figure 3: Europe Big Five: Food retailers, forecast sales, 2020-25
- Consumer spending
- Food and non-alcoholic drink
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- Figure 4: Europe: Spending on food and non-alcoholic drinks, including VAT, 2014-19
- Alcohol, tobacco and narcotics
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- Figure 5: Europe: Spending on alcoholic drinks, tobacco and narcotics, 2014-19
- Health and beauty products
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- Figure 6: Europe: Spending on products for personal care, 2014-19
- Spending and retail sales
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- Figure 7: Europe: Spending on food, drink and health & beauty as % of all food retailers' sales, 2014-19
- Inflation
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- Figure 8: Europe: harmonised index of food and non-alcoholic drinks prices, annual % change, 2014-20
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- Figure 9: Europe: harmonised index of alcohol and tobacco prices, annual % change, 2014-20
- Online
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- Figure 10: EU: proportion of people who have bought groceries online, 2009-19
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- Figure 11: Europe: Proportion of people who have bought groceries online by country, 2014-19
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- Figure 12: Europe: Online grocery sales, excluding VAT, 2019
- Leading players
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- Figure 13: Europe: Leading food retailers, sales, 2015/16-2019/20
- Figure 14: Europe: Leading food retailers, outlets, 2015/16-2019/20
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- Figure 15: Europe: Leading food retailers, sales per outlet, 2015/16-2019/20
- Market shares
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- Figure 16: Europe: Leading food retailers' shares of all food retailers' sales, 2015/16-2019/20
- Figure 17: Europe: Leading food retailers’ shares of all food retailers’ sales, 2019
Executive Summary – Europe – The Consumer
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- The research
- Who shops for groceries
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- Figure 18: Europe: Who shops for groceries, by country, August 2020
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- Figure 19: Europe: Who shops for groceries, by gender, August 2020
- How people shop for groceries
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- Figure 20: Europe: How they shop for groceries, August 2020
- Where they shop for groceries
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- Figure 21: Europe: Two most used retailers and proportion of shoppers, by country, August 2020
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- Figure 22: Europe: Top 2 and Top 5 food retailers by proportion of shoppers, by country, August 2020
- The discounters
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- Figure 23: Europe: Use of top 2 discounters for main shop and top-up shopping, by country, August 2020
- Top-up shopping
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- Figure 24: Europe: Two most used retailers for top-up shopping, by country, August 2020
- Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19-related issues
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- Figure 25: Europe: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19-related issues, August 2020
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- Figure 26: Europe: Ranking of Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19-related issues, August 2020
Executive Summary – Europe - Launch Activity and Innovation
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- On-demand grocery delivery for customers who want it now!
- The 'first 100% digital supermarket' in Italy
- Voice-based ecommerce grocery shopping experience
- 24/7 grocery vending machine
- Contactless grocery stores for shoppers who want to get in and out fast
- Reimagining the humble shopping trolley
- Stimulating healthier food buying habits
- Bolstering consumer trust in food
- Socially distanced grocery shopping in the COVID-19 era
The Impact of COVID-19 on Supermarkets
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- Short, medium and long-term impact on the sector
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- Figure 27: Short, medium and long term impact of COVID-19 on food retailing, December 2020
- Opportunities and threats
- COVID-19 brings new opportunities online
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- Figure 28: Albert Heijn’s temporary home delivery service, May 2020
- Technology and robotics used to support operations
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- Figure 29: Aldi’s traffic light queueing system in the UK, May 2020
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- Figure 30: Delhaize’s robots disinfect trolleys at stores, May 2020
- Collaborations enable better service
- Discounters pose threat to supermarkets as shoppers look to price
- How COVID-19 will reshape the industry
- Supporting the local community will gain further relevance
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- Figure 31: Sainsbury’s volunteer shopping card, May 2020
- Mobile apps create space in home delivery for smaller players
- Discounters boosted by limited budgets
- Supermarket sales benefit in 2020 and beyond
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- Figure 32: Europe Big Five: Total food retailers’ sales and forecast, 2015-25
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- Figure 33: Europe Big Five: Total food retailers’ sales and forecast, by country, 2015-25
- The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behaviour across Europe
- Concern about exposure to COVID-19 begins to rise as second wave bites
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- Figure 34: Europe: Those extremely worried about the risk of being exposed to COVID-19, March-October 2020*
- The financial impact of COVID-19
- Furlough and job losses
- Cutting back spending but adding to savings where possible
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- Figure 35: Europe: Financial impact of COVID-19, November 2020*
- Changes to shopping behaviour
- Non-essential spending takes a hit
- People want to spend less time in-store
- Cash is no longer king
- Localism rises up the agenda
- Online shopping receives major boost
- Assisted shopping provides challenges for grocery retailers
- Second wave prompts renewed stockpiling
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- Figure 36: Europe: Changes to shopping behaviour since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, November 2020*
- Consumers are trying not to handle/touch products in-store
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- Figure 37: Europe: people who would feel uncomfortable handling/touching products in-store, November 2020*
- Spending intentions
- Food one of the sectors least affected by reduction in spending
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- Figure 38: Net balance* of expected spending on selected items in the next month, November 2020**
- French consumers most likely to be planning to spend less on food
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- Figure 39: Europe: Net balance* of expected spending on food (excluding takeaways/home deliveries) in the next month, November 2020**
- How the crisis is impacting on key consumer segments
- Women and older people most concerned about the virus
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- Figure 40: Europe: Those extremely worried about the risk of being exposed to COVID-19, by gender and age, November 2020*
- Women and older age groups also trying to limit time in-store
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- Figure 41: Europe: consumers trying to limit the time they spend in-store, by gender and age, November 2020*
- Online shopping boom is relatively uniform
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- Figure 42: Europe: consumers shopping more online, by gender and age, November 2020*
- Shopping locally appeals more to older age groups
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- Figure 43: Europe: consumers shopping more from local businesses, by gender and age, November 2020*
- COVID-19: Market context
- UK
- France
- Germany
- Italy
- Spain
France
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- Overview
- Key issues covered in this report
- Areas covered in this Report
- Executive Summary
- The market
- The economy
- Consumer spending
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- Figure 44: France: Consumer spending on food, drink and tobacco (including VAT), 2019
- Sector size and forecast
- Channels of distribution
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- Figure 45: France: Distribution of food and drink products (excluding tobacco) by channel, 2018
- Companies and brands
- Key metrics
- Market shares
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- Figure 46: France: Leading grocers’ shares of all food retailers’ sales, 2019
- Online
- The consumer
- Who shops for groceries
- How they shop for groceries
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- Figure 47: France: How grocery shoppers typically shop, August 2020
- Where they shop for groceries
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- Figure 48: France: Where they shop for groceries, Primary and secondary shops August 2020
- Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues
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- Figure 49: France: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues, August 2020
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- Figure 50: France: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues, August 2020
- Figure 51: France: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues, August 2020
- Issues and insights
- COVID-19 encourages grocery retailers to support local business and communities
- The implications of Aldi’s takeover of Leader Price
- The market – Key takeaways
- COVID-19 has hit the economy hard
- Spending on food and drink remained resilient
- Grocers offset decline in non-essential retailers’ sales
- Can December rescue the retail sector?
- Decline of the hypermarket and shift to online accelerates
- Consumer spending
- The impact of the Brexit deal on the rest of Europe
- The economy
- Consumer spending on groceries
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- Figure 52: France: Consumer spending on food, drink and tobacco (including VAT), 2015-20
- Sector size and forecast
- Black Friday and December
- Grocers vs specialists
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- Figure 53: France: Food retailers, sales (excluding VAT), 2015-20
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- Figure 54: France: Food retailers, forecast sales (excluding VAT), 2020-25
- Inflation
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- Figure 55: France: Consumer prices * of food and drink, Annual % change, 2015-19
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- Figure 56: France: Consumer prices* of food and drink, Annual % change, January 2019-September 2020
- Channels of distribution
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- Figure 57: France: Distribution of food and drink products (excluding tobacco) by channel, 2017-19
- Companies and brands – Key takeaways
- Leclerc still leads
- Aldi acquires Leader Price to rival Lidl in the discount sector
- Grocers respond to changing market
- Specialists losing market share but discounters gaining ground
- Online growth to be driven by home delivery
- Leading players
- Leclerc hypermarket focus pays off…
- …while Carrefour looks to c-stores and organics
- Casino boosts online offer
- Aldi to expand with the acquisition of 500+ Leader Price stores
- Grocers’ initiatives to respond to changing markets
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- Figure 58: France: Leading grocers, sales (excluding VAT), 2015-19
- Figure 59: France: Leading grocers, outlets, 2015-19
- Sales per outlet
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- Figure 60: France: Leading grocers, Sales per outlet, 2015-19
- Market shares
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- Figure 61: France: Leading grocers’ shares of all food retailers’ sales, 2015-19
- Online
- Online activity and online grocery market size
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- Figure 62: France: Broadband connections (percentage of households), 2011-19
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- Figure 63: France: smartphone ownership, June 2020
- Shopping online for food
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- Figure 64: France: Online purchasing, 2010-19
- Figure 65: France: Change in frequency of selected food and drink habits since the start of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, ordering Groceries online
- Online grocery market size
- Leading online players
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- Figure 66: France: leading online grocery retailers’ sales, 2015-19
- The consumer – Key takeaways
- Women still have most responsibility for grocery shopping
- Top-up shopping widespread
- Leclerc the most popular for a main shop and Lidl for top-ups
- Carrefour’s different store formats ensure widespread usage
- Lidl leads for secondary shopping
- Christmas unlikely to be a lifeline for many retailers
- Own brands can help cash-strapped shoppers
- Grocery retailers’ ethical responsibilities are now more visible
- Who shops for groceries
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- Figure 67: France: who shops for groceries by gender, August 2020
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- Figure 68: France: who shops for groceries, August 2020
- How they shop for groceries
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- Figure 69: France: How grocery shoppers typically shop, August 2020
- Where they shop for groceries
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- Figure 70: France: Where they shop for groceries, main shop, August 2020
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- Figure 71: France: Where they shop for groceries, Primary and secondary shops August 2020
- Customer profiles
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- Figure 72: France: grocery retailer they spend the most with, by average age and income, August 2020
- Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19-related issues
- Christmas
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- Figure 73: France: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues, August 2020
- Own brand and promotions
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- Figure 74: France: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues, August 2020
- Attitudes to grocery retailers
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- Figure 75: France: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues, August 2020
- Appendix – Data sources, abbreviations and supporting information
- Abbreviations
- Data sources
Italy
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- Overview
- Key issues covered in this report
- Areas covered in this report
- Executive summary
- The market
- Consumer spending
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- Figure 76: Italy: annual percentage change in consumer spending on food and beverages, 2015-19
- Sector size and forecast
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- Figure 77: Italy: food retailers, sales (excluding VAT), 2015-20
- Channels of distribution
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- Figure 78: Italy: estimated distribution of spending on food and beverages by channel, 2019
- Companies and brands
- Key metrics
- Market shares
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- Figure 79: Italy: top 10 grocers’ shares of all food retailers’ sales, 2019
- Online
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- Figure 80: Italy: Online purchasing in the last 12 months, 2014-19
- The consumer
- Who shops for groceries
- How they shop for groceries
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- Figure 81: Italy: how they shop for groceries, August 2020
- Where they shop for groceries
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- Figure 82: Italy: Where they shop for groceries, August 2020
- Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19-related issues
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- Figure 83: Italy: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19-related issues, August 2020
- Issues and insights
- Consumers look for value and local suppliers in wake of COVID-19
- Discounters have been the prime beneficiaries
- Big two are well placed to deal with COVID-19 impact
- Hypermarkets will be the main losers
- Will the growth in online grocery continue after 2020?
- Online grocery sales turbocharged by COVID-19 outbreak
- Strong growth in usage of online grocery services
- Capacity still a barrier to faster growth
- Shoppers reluctant to spend time in-store
- Future prospects generally look good
- Some potential obstacles
- Important not to exclude some consumers from online ordering
- The market – Key takeaways
- Hard times ahead
- Mixed fortunes for food retailers
- COVID-19 has resulted in food price rises
- Grocers dominate sales of food and drink but share slips marginally
- Consumer spending
- The impact of the Brexit deal on the rest of Europe
- Consumer spending on food
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- Figure 84: Italy: Consumer spending on food, drink and tobacco (including VAT), 2015-20
- Sector size and forecast
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- Figure 85: Italy: Food retailers, sales (excluding VAT), 2015-20
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- Figure 86: Italy: Food retailers, forecast sales (excluding VAT), 2020-25
- Inflation
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- Figure 87: Italy: Consumer prices* of food and drink, Annual % change, 2015-19
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- Figure 88: Italy: Consumer prices* of food and drink, Annual % change, January 2019-August 2020
- Channels of distribution
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- Figure 89: Italy: estimated distribution of spending on food and beverages by channel, 2015-19
- Companies and brands – key takeaways
- Conad pushes ahead with more to come
- Coop Italia plateaus
- A concentrated market
- Online grocery still lags in Italy
- Leading players
- Conad pushes ahead with more to come
- Coop Italia plateaus
- Selex breaks through the €10 billion sales barrier
- Mixed fortunes at Esselunga
- Other players
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- Figure 90: Italy: Leading grocers, sales (excluding VAT), 2015-19
- Figure 91: Italy: Leading grocers, outlets, 2015-19
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- Figure 92: Italy: Leading grocers, sales per outlet, 2015-19
- Market shares
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- Figure 93: Italy: Leading grocers’ shares of all food retailers’ sales, 2015-19
- Online
- Online activity
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- Figure 94: Italy: Household penetration of broadband internet, 2014-19
- Shopping online for food
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- Figure 95: Italy: Online purchasing in the last 12 months, 2014-19
- Online grocery market size
- Leading online players
- Esselunga
- Conad
- Coop Italia
- The consumer – Key takeaways
- Women main grocery shoppers and most concerned about COVID risk
- Localism grows in importance
- Greater spotlight on value has potential to boost own label sales
- COVID-19 cements feelings of community
- Sustainability rises steadily up the agenda
- Who shops for groceries
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- Figure 96: Italy: Where they shop for groceries, net of responses, August 2020
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- Figure 97: Italy: Who shops for groceries, by gender, August 2020
- How they shop for groceries
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- Figure 98: Italy: how they shop for groceries, August 2020
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- Figure 99: Italy: how they shop for groceries, by gender, August 2020
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- Figure 100: Figure 101: Italy: how they shop for groceries, by age, August 2020
- Where they shop for groceries
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- Figure 102: Italy: Where they shop for groceries, net of responses, August 2020
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- Figure 103: Italy: Where they shop for groceries, August 2020
- Customer profile
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- Figure 104: Italy: Where they shop for groceries by age and income, August 2020
- Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19-related issues
- Localism grows in importance
- Greater spotlight on value has potential to boost own label sales
- COVID-19 cements feelings of community
- Sustainability rises steadily up the agenda
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- Figure 105: Italy: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19-related issues, August 2020
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- Figure 106: Italy: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19-related issues, by where they shop for groceries**, August 2020
- Appendix – Research methodology, data sources and abbreviations
- Abbreviations
- Data sources
Spain
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- Overview
- Key issues covered in this report
- Areas covered in this report
- Executive summary
- The market
- Consumer spending
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- Figure 107: Spain: Consumer spending on food, drinks and tobacco (including VAT), 2014-20
- Sector size and forecast
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- Figure 108: Spain: Food retailers' sales and forecast sales (excluding VAT), 2015-25
- Channels of distribution
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- Figure 109: Spain: estimated distribution of spending on food and drink products by channel, 2019
- Companies and brands
- Leading retailers
- Market share
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- Figure 110: Spain: Leading grocers’ shares of all food retailers’ sales, 2019
- Online
- The consumer
- Who shops for groceries
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- Figure 111: Spain: Who shops for groceries in the household, August 2020
- How they shop for groceries
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- Figure 112: Spain: How they shop for groceries, by gender, August 2020
- Where they shop
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- Figure 113: Spain: Grocery retailers used for primary shop, August 2020
- Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19-related issues
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- Figure 114: Spain: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues, August 2020
- Issues and insights
- Supermarkets struggle to meet COVID-19 demand for online
- Own-brand can challenge more expensive items at Christmas
- The market – Key takeaways
- COVID-19 is creating a peak in food consumption
- Boost in grocers’ and food retailers’ sales
- Grocers take nearly 80% of spending on food and drinks
- Consumer spending
- The impact of the Brexit deal on the rest of Europe
- Consumer spending on food
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- Figure 115: Spain: consumer spending on food, drink and tobacco (including VAT), 2014-20
- Sector size and forecast
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- Figure 116: Spain: Food retailers, sales (excluding VAT), 2014-20
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- Figure 117: Spain: Food retailers, forecast sales (excluding VAT), 2020-25
- Inflation
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- Figure 118: Spain: Consumer prices* of food and drink, annual % change, 2014-20
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- Figure 119: Spain: Consumer prices* of food and drink, annual % change, January 2018-October 2020
- Channels of distribution
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- Figure 120: Spain: Estimated distribution of spending on food and drink products by channel, 2019
- Companies and brands – Key takeaways
- Food retailers among the few to benefit from COVID-19…
- …though the pandemic has brought added costs
- Mercadona, Carrefour and Auchan performing well
- Lidl continues its rise
- Online gains importance from COVID-19
- Leading players
- Mercadona and Carrefour continue to grow
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- Figure 121: Spain: Leading food retailers, sales 2015/16-2019/20
- Figure 122: Spain: Leading food retailers, outlets, 2015/16-2019/20
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- Figure 123: Spain: Leading food retailers, sales per outlet, 2015/16-2019/20
- Market shares
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- Figure 124: Spain: Leading food retailers’ shares of all food retailers’ sales, 2015-19
- Online
- Online activity
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- Figure 125: Spain: Access to broadband connection (percentage of households), 2009-19
- Shopping online for food
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- Figure 126: Spain: Online purchasing in the last 12 months, 2009-19
- Online grocery market size
- Leading online players
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- Figure 127: Spain: leading online grocery retailers, estimated sales, 2016-19
- The consumer – Key takeaways
- Women continue to take most responsibility for grocery shopping
- Most Spaniards do one main shop as well as top-up shops
- Men shop more at Carrefour and women at Mercadona
- COVID-19 reinforces a sense of community and giving back
- Looking forward to Christmas but spending will be modest
- Who shops for groceries
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- Figure 128: Spain: Who shops for groceries in the household, by gender, August 2020
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- Figure 129: Spain: Who shops for groceries in the household, by age, August 2020
- How they shop for groceries
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- Figure 130: Spain: How they shop for groceries, August 2020
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- Figure 131: Spain: How they shop for groceries, by age group, August 2020
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- Figure 132: Spain: How they shop for groceries, by age group, August 2020
- Where they shop for groceries
- Primary shop
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- Figure 133: Spain: Grocery retailers used for primary shop, August 2020
- Secondary shop
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- Figure 134: Spain: Grocery retailers used for other top-up shops, August 2020
- Customer profiles
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- Figure 135: Spain: Grocery retailers used for primary shop, by gender, August 2020
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- Figure 136: Spain: Grocery retailers used for primary shop, by age group, August 2020
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- Figure 137: Spain: Grocery retailers used for primary shop, by how they shop, August 2020
- Attitudes towards shopping for groceries in the COVID-19 pandemic
- Retailers’ efforts to support local suppliers and community noted
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- Figure 138: Spain: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues, August 2020
- Grocery retailers face a difficult Christmas as shoppers rein in spending
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- Figure 139: Spain: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues, August 2020
- COVID-19 pandemic drives an increased appetite for own-brand products
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- Figure 140: Spain: Attitudes towards grocery retailers and COVID-19 related issues, August 2020
- Appendix – Data sources, abbreviations and supporting information
- Abbreviations
- Data sources
UK
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- Overview
- Key issues covered in this Report
- COVID-19: Market Context
- Impact of the January lockdown and the vaccination rollout
- Economic and other assumptions
- Products covered in this Report
- Executive Summary
- Impact of COVID-19 on grocery retail sales
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- Figure 141: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on all retail and grocery retail sales, December 2020
- The market
- Spending on in-home food and drink soars as a result of COVID-19
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- Figure 142: Consumer spending on and growth in core in-home food and drink categories, Q1 2019-Q2 2020
- Grocery retail sales hit record high, although hit to non-foods depresses growth
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- Figure 143: All grocery retail sales (including VAT), 2015-25 (17 November 2020)
- Online to claim over 10% of spending for the first time
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- Figure 144: Estimated breakdown of all grocery retail sales, by channel, 2011-20
- Leading Retailers
- The big four still account for two thirds of all sales
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- Figure 145: Leading grocery retailers: share of all grocery retail sales, 2019
- Online sales to near double in 2020
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- Figure 146: Online Grocery market size (including VAT), 2015-20
- Underlying trends remain key
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- Figure 147: Asda Sustainability store, Middleton October 2020
- Amazon’s innovation differentiates it, but Tesco outperforms on trust
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- Figure 148: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, November 2020
- The consumer
- COVID-19 drives bigger baskets… and less frequent shops
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- Figure 149: How grocery shoppers typically shop, 2015-20
- …and less frequent shops
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- Figure 150: Frequency of grocery shop, 2018 and 2020
- Despite bigger baskets, the shift of spending away from larger-format stores continues
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- Figure 151: Store format where the most is spent in a typical month, 2016-20
- Tesco is the most popular retailer
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- Figure 152: Grocery retailers used for primary and secondary shops, August 2020
- Overall satisfaction levels are high, but more clarity on sourcing is key
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- Figure 153: Key drivers of overall satisfaction with supermarkets, September 2020
- Goodwill towards retailers is high, but will be lost if not invested in
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- Figure 154: Attitudes towards grocery shopping, August 2020
- Issues and Insights
- COVID-19 Reset: Defining the food and drink offer in supermarkets
- COVID-19 Reset: Driving the multi-mission benefits
- The Market – Key Takeaways
- COVID-19 drives confidence down and sees consumers cut back
- Spending on in-home food and drink soars as a result of COVID-19
- Online to claim over 10% of spending for the first time
- Market Drivers
- Confidence dives with onset of COVID-19 and remains volatile
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- Figure 155: Financial confidence index, January 2015-November 2020
- COVID-19 polarises finances
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- Figure 156: Current financial situation compared to a year ago, by household income, November 2020
- Wages take a pounding after COVID-19 triggers economic downturn
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- Figure 157: Average weekly earnings, by consumer price index, January 2017-September 2019
- Retail sales drop sharply during COVID-19 lockdown
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- Figure 158: Monthly UK retail sales (excluding fuel), by value, January 2017-October 2020
- Food and drink prices fell in wake of relaxation of first COVID-19 lockdown restrictions…
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- Figure 159: Food and drink inflation, October 2019-October 2020
- …however a tick up in the first half of the year is expected
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- Figure 160: Origins of food consumed in the UK, 2019
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- Figure 161: UK trade, value of import and export by food groups, 2019
- Figure 162: food and drink, percentage of total imports accounted for by the EU, 2015-20 (Oct)
- Home ownership is rising and renting is falling
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- Figure 163: UK household tenure status, 2014-19
- Consumer Spending on Food and Drink
- Growth slows in 2019 but COVID-19 will bring a record year for spending on food and drink
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- Figure 164: Consumer spending on and growth in core in-home food and drink categories, Q1 2019-Q2 2020
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- Figure 165: Consumer spending on core in-home food and drink categories, 2015-20
- Spending on food to top £100 billion for the first time
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- Figure 166: Annual % change in consumer spending, value and volume, and inflation in food, 2014-20
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- Figure 167: Breakdown of consumer spending on food, 2019
- In-home consumption major boost to tea and coffee
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- Figure 168: Annual % change in consumer spending, value and volume, and inflation in non-alcoholic drinks, 2014-20
- In-home alcohol sales get big boost from COVID-19
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- Figure 169: Annual % change in consumer spending, value and volume, and inflation on alcoholic drinks, 2014-20
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- Figure 170: Breakdown of value spending in the alcoholic drinks category, 2019
- Sector Size and Forecast
- Greater in-home demand boosts basket sizes and grocery sales
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- Figure 171: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on all retail and grocery retail sales, December 2020
- Growth to reach record high in 2020
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- Figure 172: All grocery retail sales (including VAT), 2015-25
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- Figure 173: All grocery retail sales (including VAT), 2015-25
- Supermarkets see strong growth, but growth in online holds back store-based sales
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- Figure 174: Supermarket market size and forecast (including VAT), 2015-25
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- Figure 175: Supermarket market size and forecast (including VAT), 2015-25
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 176: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-25
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 177: Annual % change in all grocery retail sales (excluding VAT), and by broad category, 2007-12
- Forecast methodology
- Channels of Distribution
- Supermarkets still the largest channel within the grocery sector…
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- Figure 178: Estimated channels of distribution for grocery retail sales, 2019
- …however share of spending is likely to fall below 50% for the first time
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- Figure 179: Estimated breakdown of all grocery retail sales, by channel, 2011-20
- The Consumer – Key Takeaways
- COVID-19 drives up basket sizes as consumers reduce frequency of shop
- Bigger basket shopping not necessarily to the benefit of supermarkets
- Appreciation of the grocery sector at a high
- How They Shop
- There remains a gender imbalance in the responsibility for grocery shopping
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- Figure 180: Responsibility for grocery shopping, August 2020
- COVID-19 helps to bring bigger basket shops back in vogue
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- Figure 181: How grocery shoppers typically shop, 2015-20
- There is fluidity in these habits
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- Figure 182: How grocery shoppers typically shop, by quarter, Mar-2016, Sep-2020
- COVID-19 hits frequency of shop
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- Figure 183: Frequency of grocery shop, 2018 and 2020
- Types of Store Used
- Despite bigger baskets, the shift of spending away from larger-format stores continues
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- Figure 184: Store format where the most is spent in a typical month, 2016-20
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- Figure 185: Mintel Grocery Tracker: Format where the most is spent in a typical month, Mar-Sep 2020
- Older shoppers spend the most in supermarkets, but are increasingly shifting spend to other channels
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- Figure 186: Store format where the most is spent in a typical month, by age, August 2020
- Significant shift in both lower and higher income households’ spend to online and discounters
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- Figure 187: Store format where the most is spent in a typical month, by household income, August 2020
- Retailers Shopped With
- Tesco remains top of the pack
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- Figure 188: Grocery retailers used, August 2020
- Tesco has been losing shoppers for the last three years
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- Figure 189: Trend of grocery retailers used, 2018-20
- Morrisons most likely to be used for a top-up shop over a main shop
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- Figure 190: Grocery retailers used for primary and secondary shops, August 2020
- Just 7% of shoppers stick to one retailer
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- Figure 191: Repertoire of secondary retailers used, August 2020
- Nearly 50% of Lidl shoppers are topping up at Tesco
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- Figure 192: Where leading retailers’ primary shoppers also shop, August 2020
- Retailer Demographic Comparison
- Tesco gains more 16-24 year old primary and secondary shoppers
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- Figure 193: Leading grocery retailers used for primary and secondary shops, by age, August 2020
- Aldi still skews towards younger customers
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- Figure 194: The discounters: primary and secondary shoppers, by age, August 2020
- Tesco’s convenience store estate creates strong secondary usage
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- Figure 195: Leading grocery retailers used for primary and secondary shops, by location, August 2020
- Lidl pulls ahead of Aldi in London
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- Figure 196: Leading retailers’ primary shoppers, by region, August 2020
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- Figure 197: Leading retailers’ secondary shoppers, by region, August 2020
- Big four supermarkets attracting the same demographics
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- Figure 198: Leading grocery retailers used for primary and secondary shops, by household income bracket, August 2020
- Aldi appealing to higher income households for top-up shops
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- Figure 199: Aldi and Lidl, primary and secondary grocery shoppers, by household income bracket, August 2020
- Satisfaction With The Shopping Experience
- Most are satisfied with the COVID-19 measures put in place
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- Figure 200: Satisfaction levels with the grocery retailer where the most is spent in a typical month, August 2020
- Product sourcing information still an area that needs work
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- Figure 201: Key drivers of overall satisfaction with supermarkets, September 2020
- Satisfaction by retailer
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- Figure 202: Overall satisfaction with the retailer where the most is spent in a typical month, August 2020
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- Figure 203: Satisfaction with the retailer where the most is spent in a typical month, by factors, September 2020
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- Figure 204: Satisfaction with the retailer where the most is spent in a typical month, by factors, September 2020
- Methodology
- The Short and Long-term Impact of COVID-19 on the Grocery Sector
- Stockpiling drove initial peak demand, but longer-term points to more ‘prepared-ness’
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- Figure 205: COVID-19 Tracker: stockpiling and availability, Feb – Nov 2020
- A short-term rowing back of trends which remain key longer-term
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- Figure 206: COVID-19 Tracker: Attitudes to grocery shopping and COVID-19, 18-24 June 2020
- COVID-19 may accelerate the integration of more technology in-store
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- Figure 207: Use of self-scan since COVID-19, August 2020
- Appreciation for grocery retail is at an all-time high…
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- Figure 208: Attitudes towards the importance of grocery retailers, August 2020
- …but this opportunity will be lost unless it is shown to be a two-way street
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- Figure 209: Attitudes towards local and British sourced products, August 2020
- Value high on the agenda but customers want help to cut back
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- Figure 210: Attitudes towards food waste and promotions, August 2020
- Opportunities for own-brand in a more value conscious market
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- Figure 211: Impact of COVID-19 on own-brand purchasing, by household income, October 2020
- Leading Retailers – Key Takeaways
- The big four still account for two-thirds of sales within the grocery sector
- COVID-19 has changed much, but the underlying trends in the sector remain
- COVID-19 has further blended the channels
- Leading Retailers – Key Metrics
- Sales
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- Figure 212: Leading grocery retailers, sales, 2015-19
- Stores
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- Figure 213: Leading grocery retailers: Store numbers, 2015-19
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- Figure 214: Leading grocery retailers: Annual sales per outlet, 2015-19
- Sales areas and densities
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- Figure 215: Leading grocery retailers: Total sales area, 2015-19
- Figure 216: Leading grocery retailers: Annual sales per square metre, 2015-19
- Operating profits and margins
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- Figure 217: Leading grocery retailers: Operating profits, 2015-19
- Figure 218: Leading grocery retailers: Operating margins, 2015-19
- Market Share
- Discounters continue to grow market share
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- Figure 219: Leading grocery retailers: share of all grocery retail sales, 2019
- Market concentration continues to drop
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- Figure 220: Leading grocery retailers: Share of all grocery retail sales, 2015-19
- A note on our market share
- Online
- Online shopping is ubiquitous and here to stay
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- Figure 221: Online Grocery market size (Including VAT), 2015-20
- Figure 222: Estimated breakdown of all grocery retail sales, by channel, 2011-20
- Online grocery shopping up significantly in just 4 months of 2020
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- Figure 223: Products purchased in the past year, 2019-20
- 25% of consumers doing all or most of their grocery shopping online
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- Figure 224: Online Grocery usage, December 2019
- Key players in the online grocery sector
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- Figure 225: Leading online grocery retailers’ estimated market shares (excluding VAT), 2019
- Launch Activity and Innovation
- A greener way to shop for food
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- Figure 226: Asda Sustainability store, Middleton October 2020
- Taxi business launches into grocery delivery market
- Appointment supermarket shopping to avoid the queues
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- Figure 227: Sparks Book & Shop, October 2020
- Sainsbury’s new local store concept to meet the demand for convenience shopping
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- Figure 228: Sainsbury’s Neighbourhood Hub, November 2020
- ...when all you want is the bare necessities
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- Figure 229: Bother, November 2020
- One-stop multi-shopping mission destination for shoppers who want to limit time in-store
- Pop-up supermarkets to support frontline healthcare workers during COVID-19 crisis
- Expanded food-to-go options and in-store pub
- Aldi’s ‘secret bargain hour’ makes the low-cost food retailer even cheaper
- Unique on-demand grocery delivery service
- Advertising and Marketing Activity
- Total sector advertising up 1.7% year-on-year in 2019
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- Figure 230: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by UK supermarket and online grocers, 2016-20*
- Tesco is the biggest advertising spender for the third consecutive year
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- Figure 231: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure, by leading UK supermarket and online grocers, 2016-19
- Advertising spend increases around key seasonal events
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- Figure 232: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by UK supermarket and online grocers, by month, 2018 and 2019
- Advertising spend shifting to press, outdoor and radio
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- Figure 233: Percentage media type split of recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by UK supermarkets and online grocers, 2016-20*
- What we’ve seen so far in 2020
- COVID-19-themed campaigns
- Asda reboots iconic ‘pocket tap’ jingle
- Aldi challenges shoppers to re-evaluate their preconceptions of its quality offering
- Waitrose & Partners commitment to sourcing high-quality ingredients
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
- Brand Research
- Brand map
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- Figure 234: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, November 2020
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 235: Key metrics for selected brands, November 2020
- Brand attitudes: Tesco retains most trusted retailer status
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- Figure 236: Attitudes, by brand, November 2020
- Brand personality: Sainsbury’s more ethical than competitors
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- Figure 237: Brand personality – macro image, November 2020
- Amazon - cutting edge but profit focused
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- Figure 238: Brand personality – micro image, November 2020
- Brand analysis
- Tesco the most trusted retailer
- Sainsbury’s considered more ethical than big four rivals
- Asda is better value than Morrisons and Sainsbury’s
- Morrisons has the lowest lifetime usage of the big four retailers
- Aldi’s experience and value ahead of rival Lidl
- Co-op is considered ethical by consumers
- Lidl considered the most basic of the retailers
- M&S offers an excellent experience
- Iceland is basic but good value
- Waitrose trust lower than many competitors
- Amazon leading the way in innovation
- Ocado exclusive and expensive
Asda Group
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- What we think
- Now under British ownership
- Plugging the gap in convenience grocery shopping
- One-stop multiple shopping mission destination
- Hygiene-centric shopping experience in wake of COVID-19 pandemic
- Avoiding queues during COVID-19 crisis
- Rapid online order fulfilment and ‘greener’ home deliveries
- Doubling down on price competitiveness ahead of crucial Christmas trading period
- Sustainability test store and ‘green’ price pledge
- Supporting the elderly and vulnerable during the COVID-19 crisis
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 239: Asda Stores Ltd: Financial performance, 2015-19
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- Figure 240: Asda Stores Ltd: Outlet data, 2015-19
- Retail offering
Marks & Spencer (UK food)
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- What we think
- Entire range of food finally available to buy online
- Shifting to contact-free shopping with expansion of checkout-free service
- Appointment grocery shopping service to avoid COVID-19 lockdown queues
- Debunking high price myth
- Food-to-go vending machine
- Helping customers back on wasted food and reduce plastic pollution
- Helping NHS staff and the vulnerable during the COVID-19 pandemic
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 241: Marks & Spencer (UK food): Group financial performance, 2015/16-2019/20
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- Figure 242: Marks & Spencer (UK Food): Food outlets, by format, 2015/16-2019/20
- Figure 243: Marks & Spencer (UK food): Outlet data, 2015/16-2019/20
- Retail offering
J Sainsbury
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- What we think
- One-stop multiple mission shopping destinations
- Neighbourhood store expansion to meet the demand for top-up grocery shopping
- On-demand grocery delivery service
- Exploring new locations to bring food and household products to customers
- Accelerating roll-out of scan and go
- Ramping up loyalty scheme promotions amid the toughening trading conditions
- In-store product refill stations to cut back on the use of plastic
- Supporting communities and the most vulnerable during pandemic
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 244: J Sainsbury: Group financial performance, 2015/16-2019/20
- Figure 245: J Sainsbury: Estimated Ex-VAT Retail financial breakdown, 2017/18-2020/21
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- Figure 246: J Sainsbury: Outlet data, 2015/16-2019/20
- Retail offering
Spar International
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- What we think
- Expanded ecommerce operation to meet online demand
- Store format innovation to meet specific community needs
- Making in-store shopping safer, quicker and more convenient
- A one-person concept shop with scalable pop-up opportunities
- Helping customers avoid queueing for stores
- Reducing food waste at both store and consumer level
- Supporting local communities throughout the COVID-19 pandemic
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 247: Spar International: Western Europe and Central & Eastern Europe retail sales, by country, 2015-19
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- Figure 248: Spar International: Western Europe and Central & Eastern Europe stores, by country, 2015-19
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- Figure 249: Spar International: Western Europe and Central & Eastern Europe retail sales area, 2015-19
- Retail offering
Tesco
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- What we think
- Boosting price competitiveness when value is uppermost in shoppers’ minds
- Cashless store experience aimed at shoppers in a hurry
- Free and more eco-friendly online deliveries
- On-demand grocery essentials delivery service by drones
- Cutting down on food and plastic waste
- Pop-up stores offering 24-hour access to essential grocery products
- Supporting struggling local producers during COVID-19 crisis
- Company background
- Company performance
-
- Figure 250: Tesco Plc: Group financial performance, 2015/16-2019/20
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- Figure 251: Tesco Plc: Outlet data, 2015/16-2019/20
- Retail offering
Waitrose & Partners
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- What we think
- Expanded delivery service to support more people shopping online
- Virtual shopping services to make online shopping easier for customers staying away from stores
- One-stop shopping convenience
- Making grocery shopping more affordable during these uncertain times
- Company background
- Company performance
-
- Figure 252: Waitrose: Group financial performance, 2015/16-2019/20
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- Figure 253: Waitrose: Outlet data, 2015/16-2019/20
- Retail offering
Wm Morrison Group
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- What we think
- Speedier online grocery deliveries
- More reasons for shoppers to visit stores
- Slashing prices to be more competitive
- 1,000 new local products to meet demand for more locally-produced products
- Saved 100 tonnes of food from going to waste
- Supporting struggling suppliers, frontline health workers and the vulnerable
- A more environmentally friendly Christmas
- Company background
- Company performance
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- Figure 254: Wm Morrison Group: Group financial performance, 2015/16-2019/20
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- Figure 255: Wm Morrison Group: Outlet data, 2015/16-2019/20
- Retail offering
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