What you need to know

Nearly half (48%) of magazine readers have used a magazine to learn about a hobby/interest during the COVID-19 outbreak. While the pandemic has been difficult for the magazine market overall, many people have still turned to magazines as a source of entertainment and information, with some genres, eg gardening, performing relatively well as a result.

The pandemic has been a very harsh blow for magazines and publishers. Print circulation declines will be steep in 2020, as people have had fewer occasions in their daily lives to purchase the format. Declines in advertising revenue and the inability to host in-person events have further compounded the difficulties for publishers.

The lockdown beginning in January 2021 will slow the recovery for the market, especially the print market. However while print readership is down, many digital readers have been particularly engaged with magazine content during the pandemic. This presents titles with the incentive and opportunity to further improve and bolster their digital platforms, something already crucial to their long-term survival.

There are more indications that the Netflix-style subscription model will prove to be a viable one for the magazine market going forward (eg Readly, Apple News+). The option appears to be well suited to magazines, far more so than for news/newspapers, as it offers people the opportunity to explore a large volume of very diverse content.

Key issues covered in this Report

  • The impact of COVID-19 on the magazine market

  • Forecast for UK print circulation of consumer print magazines

  • The performance of different magazine genres and titles

  • Print and digital magazine purchasing habits

  • Interest in different types of magazine videos

  • Parents’ purchasing of magazines for their children

COVID-19: Market context

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January, with a small number of cases in February. As the case level rose, the government ordered the closure of non-essential stores on 20 March. 

A wider lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, exercise and work ‘if absolutely necessary’ followed on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to re-open, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July, and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a full month-long lockdown from 5 November and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions. 

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown. There is no defined end date for the lockdown, although the legislation regarding to the English lockdown that was presented to Parliament extends to 31 March.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, and with both the Pfizer-BioNTech and the Oxford-AstraZenica vaccines licenced for use in the UK, the government aims to offer a vaccine to 15 million people by mid-February.

Impact of the January lockdown and the vaccination rollout

Much of this Report was prepared in December 2020, before the announcement of the January lockdown.

However, the content was reassessed and, where necessary, adjusted on 11 January 2021, in order to ensure that our analysis and our forecast expectations still hold true. We have also reassessed the content in the light of the progress of the vaccine rollout, and the resolution of the Brexit negotiations.

Our core assumptions on the path of the pandemic had always included an expectation of severe disruption to markets and consumers’ lifestyles well into 2021, with a strong likelihood that the virus would still be with us even into 2022. Although the second wave of infections and subsequent lockdown puts us towards the negative end of our initial expectations, these developments are still broadly consistent with our previous assumptions.

Similarly, Mintel had factored in the likelihood that an effective vaccine would be available from early- to-mid 2021. The licensing of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines puts us slightly ahead of that assumption, but the challenge associated with rolling out a new vaccination programme to millions of people means that our previous assumptions are still broadly consistent with the new reality.

Economic and other assumptions

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its November 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK GDP will have fallen by 11.3% in 2020, recovering by 5.5% in 2021, and 6.6% in 2022. GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID levels until Q4 2022. The central scenario has unemployment peaking at 7.5% in Q2 2021.

The current uncertainty means that there is wide variation on the range of forecasts, however, and this is reflected in the OBR’s own scenarios. In its upside scenario, economic activity returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by Q4 2021. Its more negative scenario, by contrast, would mean that GDP doesn’t recover until Q3 2024.

The second wave of infections and subsequent lockdowns means that the short-term prospects for the country are consistent with the OBR’s negative scenario, but this needs to be balanced against the fact that the vaccine rollout is ahead of even the OBR’s central scenario. Medium- to long-term, then, we are still basing our forecasts and market analysis on the OBR’s central economic scenario.

Products covered in this Report

This Report covers the full spectrum of consumer magazine segments, including interest-specific, women’s glossy monthly, women’s weekly, women’s general interest, celebrity, news and current affairs, free, men’s monthly lifestyle and men’s weekly lifestyle.

The scope of this Report covers both print and digital magazines. Digital magazines can be purchased and read through a subscription service such as Prime Reading, through dedicated title-specific apps or through a web browser.

Back to top