Whilst there is significant innovation happening in sustainable suncare, purchase drivers show that eco-friendly claims fall behind other factors, such as format and ingredient claims (22% of suncare buyers think it’s important for products to be eco-friendly, while 32% prioritise added skincare benefits and 54% prioritise price). This indicates that although sustainability is important to consumers, they are not willing to compromise on product efficacy when purchasing suncare.

The impact of COVID-19 was wholeheartedly negative for suncare, with Mintel estimating that value sales declined 24% as the pandemic significantly disrupted usage occasions. A return to growth in 2021 will be reliant on consumers resuming travel and socialising behaviours, and though there may be some pent-up demand from 2020, there will be ongoing challenges to overcome.

A reliance on overseas travel, domestic weather and social activities are the biggest threats to the suncare market. The disruption during 2020 highlighted how vulnerable the market is to factors beyond brand control, and this will drive innovation going forwards as brands will look to encourage frequent usage as opposed to seasonal and occasion-driven usage.

Despite suncare brands facing significant headwinds, there remain opportunities to future-proof growth in the market. These include continued innovation in products that cross over into other beauty categories, such as makeup and haircare, alongside an opportunity to significantly boost suncare engagement with greater diversity and inclusion.

• The impact of COVID-19 on sun protection, aftersun and sunless tanning.

• Usage and purchase of sun protection, aftersun and sunless tanning during the last 12 months.

• Purchase drivers for sun protection, aftersun and sunless tanning usage.

• Opportunities to boost frequency of sun protection, aftersun and sunless tanning usage.

This Report examines the UK suncare market, including sun protection, aftersun and sunless/self-tanning. For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definitions:

• Sun protection products which protect the skin against UVA/UVB rays in any format

• Aftersun products

• Sunless/self-tanning products in any format.

Excluded from market sizing but discussed in the context of the Report:

• Gradual tanning products

• Preparations designed for use with sunbeds

• Toiletries such as shampoos or hairstyling products that contain sunscreens

• Makeup products for the sun, such as creams, gels and powder bronzers that are primarily intended for cosmetic use

• Skincare products with added SPF, which are not designed specifically for use in the sun/while sunbathing.

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January, with a small number of cases in February. As the case level rose, the government ordered the closure of non-essential stores on 20 March. 

A wider lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, exercise and work ‘if absolutely necessary’ followed on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to reopen, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July, and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a full month-long lockdown from 5 November and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions. 

The second national lockdown ended on 2 December, with the UK returning to the regional tiered approach that was in force before the lockdown, meaning that large parts of the country are still effectively locked down. 

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its November 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK GDP will have fallen by 11.3% in 2020, recovering by 5.5% in 2021, and 6.6% in 2022. GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID levels until Q4 2022. The central scenario has unemployment peaking at 7.5% in Q2 2021.

The current uncertainty means that there is wide variation on the range of forecasts, however, and this is reflected in the OBR’s own scenarios. In its upside scenario, economic activity returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by Q4 2021. Its more negative scenario, by contrast, would mean that GDP doesn’t recover until Q3 2024.

From the start of the outbreak, we have made the assumption that an effective vaccine would not be widely available until well into 2021. On 9 November, Pfizer and BioNTech announced highly encouraging results from trials of their vaccine, followed by similarly positive results from Moderna. This means that a vaccination programme may be brought forward, but a full rollout will take many months, meaning that Mintel is still making the assumption that we will be living with COVID for some time to come.