Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of airlines, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 2: Total US sales and forecast of airlines, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on airlines
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- Figure 3: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on travel and airlines, December 2020
- Challenges and opportunities
- Flying now means being confident in airline safety policies
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- Figure 4: Features that make passengers feel safer, September 2020
- Several avenues exist to upsell passengers
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- Figure 5: Reasons to take a more expensive flight, September 2020
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- Figure 6: Desired airline amenities, September 2020
- Young flyers are important now and in the future
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- Figure 7: Flying occurrence throughout the pandemic, by age group, September 2020
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- Figure 8: Attitudes toward airline policies, September 2020
- What it means
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Airlines saw a steep 2020 drop, face a long recovery
- COVID-19 is a huge concern among potential flyers
- Market forces are making life difficult for airlines
- Potential new revenue streams exist for airlines
- Airlines will have evolving roles
Market Size and Forecast
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- Airline industry revenues plunge
- Vaccine deployment will mark the first step in recovery
- Further economic improvement is required for full recovery
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- Figure 9: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of airlines, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of airlines, at current prices, 2015-25
- Segment performance
- A drop in airfare brought other segments down with it
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- Figure 11: Total airline revenue, by share of segments, 2020
- Figure 12: Airline revenues, by segment, 2015-20
Impact of COVID-19 on Airlines
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- Figure 13: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on travel and airlines, December 2020
- Chronology of COVID-19 effects
- Lockdown
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
- Worry about catching COVID-19 persists and may increase into 2021
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- Figure 14: Worry about exposure to COVID-19, by age group, May 28-October 5, 2020
- Air travel is a specific area of concern
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- Figure 15: Comfort with travel activities, July 15-October 5, 2020
- Stable recovery won’t come until a vaccine is deployed
- Gains in traveler throughput are leveling off
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- Figure 16: TSA checkpoint throughput, by number of passengers, 2019-20
- Most still not ready to fly
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- Figure 17: Comfort with transportation options, May 2020
- Flyers are being judicious about their trips
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- Figure 18: Reasons for flying during the pandemic, September 2020
- Learnings from the last recession
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Market Factors
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- Airlines are struck twice by job losses
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- Figure 19: Unemployment and underemployment, January 2007-November 2020
- Figure 20: Attitudes toward airline employee treatment, September 2020
- Cheap gas reinforces appeal for road trips
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- Figure 21: US gasoline and diesel retail prices, January 2007-October 2020
- Science increasingly turning in airlines’ favor
Market Opportunities
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- The post-pandemic world will bring new demands for airlines
- Subscriptions are a largely untapped service model for airlines
- Special events can give flights a new purpose
Mintel Trend Drivers and the Future of Airlines
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- 2021: recovery with care
- 2025: a community spread out
- 2030 and beyond: slow down and think green
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- One problem, many solutions
- Climate change doesn’t take a break when travel does
- Tech solutions come with caveats
- The work to settle labor issues hasn’t stopped
Major Carriers
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- American Airlines
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- Figure 22: American Airlines total operating revenues, in millions of dollars, October 2020
- Delta Air Lines
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- Figure 23: Delta Air Lines total operating revenues, in millions of dollars, October 2020
- United Airlines
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- Figure 24: United Airlines total operating revenues, in millions of dollars, October 2020
- Southwest Airlines
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- Figure 25: Southwest Airlines total operating revenues, in millions of dollars, October 2020
- JetBlue Airways
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- Figure 26: JetBlue total operating revenues, in millions of dollars, October 2020
- Spirit Airlines
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- Figure 27: Spirit Airlines total operating revenues, in millions of dollars, October 2020
Industry Happenings
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- Climate initiatives are still vital for the industry
- Tech advancement is necessary, but comes with pitfalls
- Labor issues loom large
- Breeze blows in next year
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Travel volume was great, until…
- A convenient flight is worth more
- Co-branding opportunities go beyond credit cards
- Subscriptions, digital entertainment will carry over from the pandemic
- Safety is still paramount
- The future is conscientious
- Loyalty can be bought
Flying in the Past 12 Months
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- A promising year was stalled by COVID-19
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- Figure 28: Flying habits, past 12 months, September 2020
- Young flyers have felt better about venturing out
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- Figure 29: Flying occurrence throughout the pandemic, by age group, September 2020
- Americans avoid short flights, layovers
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- Figure 30: Characteristics of last flight taken, September 2020
Reasons to Pay a Higher Fare
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- Scheduling and fees can have an impact on upselling
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- Figure 31: Reasons to take a more expensive flight, September 2020
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- Figure 32: TURF analysis – reasons to take a more expensive flight, September 2020
- Company practices, communication will be more important in the future
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- Figure 33: Reasons to take a more expensive flight, by age group, September 2020
Desired Amenities
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- Airlines can make lounges a lucrative safe haven for passengers willing to pay
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- Figure 34: Desired lounge amenities, September 2020
- What’s the exclusive deal for airline food?
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- Figure 35: Attitudes toward in-flight options, September 2020
- Co-branding flights can have an audience with younger travelers
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- Figure 36: Attitudes toward in-flight options, September 2020
- Flyers have interest in membership programs beyond loyalty
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- Figure 37: Desired airline programs, September 2020
- Some services can be differentiators
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- Figure 38: Other airline offerings, September 2020
Feeling Safe while Flying
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- COVID-19 concern is focused on the plane itself
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- Figure 39: Features that make passengers feel safer, September 2020
- Safety and scheduling are still top pandemic-related concerns
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- Figure 40: TURF analysis – factors that make passengers feel safe from COVID-19, September 2020
- Older flyers want virus mitigation in place
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- Figure 41: Features that make passengers feel safer, by age group, September 2020
Attitudes toward Airline Policies
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- Passengers want airline policies to be inclusive, conscientious
- Allow for seating flexibility
- Maintain clean energy initiatives
- Be prepared to accommodate pets
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- Figure 42: Attitudes toward airline policies, September 2020
- Green policies are important to the flyers of the future
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- Figure 43: Attitudes toward airline policies, September 2020
Attitudes toward Airline Loyalty
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- Flyers are interested in new loyalty accrual methods
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- Figure 44: Attitudes toward earning loyalty points, September 2020
- Young travelers are the most interested in new loyalty accrual paths
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- Figure 45: Attitudes toward earning loyalty points, by age, September 2020
- Airlines can encourage business travelers to do business in-flight
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- Figure 46: Attitudes toward earning loyalty points, by type of traveler, September 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 47: Table – TURF analysis – important airline factors, September 2020
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- Figure 48: Table - TURF analysis – important COVID-19 factors, September 2020
- Methodology
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