Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- COVID-19 boosts sales in 2020
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- Figure 1: Estimated total grocery retail sales, NI and RoI, 2015-20
- Figure 2: Estimated total supermarket retail sales, NI and RoI, 2015-20
- COVID-19 driving sales, but boosting economic uncertainty
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- Figure 3: Expected impact of COVID-19 on supermarket retail sales, short, medium and long term, 3 December 2020
- Food prices falling in RoI, rising in NI
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- Figure 4: Agreement with the statement ‘I am cutting back on non-essential spending’, IoI, May-November 2020
- RoI consumers spending more on groceries
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- Figure 5: Average amount that consumers spend each week for household groceries, RoI, November 2020
- Figure 6: Average amount that consumers spend each week for household groceries, NI, November 2020
- Brexit leading to stock issues
- Fear regarding COVID-19 remains high
- COVID-19 won’t stop Christmas spending
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- Figure 7: Agreement with statements relating to COVID-19 and Christmas, IoI, November 2020
- Companies, innovations and brands
- The consumer
- Women continue to be more likely to assume sole responsibility for groceries
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- Figure 8: Who is responsible for the main grocery shop in their household, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Tesco key main grocery shopping location, discounters strongly used for top-up
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- Figure 9: Usage of retailers for main weekly grocery shopping, NI and RoI, November 2020
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- Figure 10: Usage of retailers for top-up grocery shopping, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Strong preference for own-label products
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- Figure 11: Consumers’ preferences for branded vs own-label groceries, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Waste remains high on Irish consumers’ agenda
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- Figure 12: Agreement with statements relating to supermarkets, NI and RoI, November 2020
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- COVID-19 boosts sales in 2020
- Food prices falling in RoI, rising in NI
- Brexit leading to stock issues
- RoI consumers spending more on groceries
- Fear regarding COVID-19 remains high
- COVID-19 won’t stop Christmas spending
Market Size and Forecast
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- Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
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- Figure 13: Expected impact of COVID-19 on supermarket retail sales, short, medium and long term, 3 December 2020
- COVID-19 helps boost sales in 2020
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- Figure 14: Estimated total grocery retail sales, IoI, NI and RoI, 2015-25
- Figure 15: Agreement with the statement ‘I am stocking up on groceries/other supplies’, IoI, May-November 2020
- Supermarkets likewise benefit from COVID-19 and lockdown
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- Figure 16: Estimated total supermarket retail sales, IoI, NI and RoI, 2015-25
- Economic fallout of COVID-19 could further boost discounter usage
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- Figure 17: How consumers’ financial situation has changed since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, IoI, July-August 2020
- COVID-19 drives more online grocery spending
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- Figure 18: Agreement with statements relating to how COVID-19 has changed shopping habits, IoI, May-November 2020
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- Figure 19: Consumers who bought groceries online in the last three months, NI and RoI, 2018 and 2019
Market Drivers
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- NI food prices increase – but fall in RoI
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- Figure 20: Consumer price index for all food and non-alcoholic beverages, January 2017-October 2020
- Figure 21: Agreement with the statement ‘I am cutting back on non-essential spending’, IoI, 6 May-18 November 2020
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- Figure 22: Agreement with the statement ‘I'm finding it harder to make ends meet’, IoI, September-November 2020
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- Figure 23: Consumer price index for all food and non-alcoholic beverages, RoI, January 2017-October 2020
- Brexit issues could lead to scarcity and further price increases on both sides of the border
- Increases in unemployment may cause spending cut for groceries
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- Figure 24: COVID-19-adjusted unemployment rate (%), RoI, March-September 2020
- Figure 25: Unemployment claimant count (%), NI, January 2016-July 2020
- Average grocery spend £41-60 in NI and €101+ in RoI
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- Figure 26: Average amount that consumers spend each week for household groceries, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Figure 27: Sterling to euro exchange rate, 2015-December 2020
- Fear regarding COVID-19 remains high
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- Figure 28: How worried consumers are about the risk of being exposed to COVID-19, IoI, March-November 2020
- Over two thirds of shoppers confident supermarkets keep them safe from the virus
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- Figure 29: How confident consumers are that supermarkets are taking appropriate steps to keep them safe from COVID-19 while in-store, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Majority plan to make Christmas 2020 as good as it can be
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- Figure 30: Agreement with statements relating to COVID-19 and Christmas, IoI, November 2020
- Six in 10 planning Christmas shopping more
Companies and Innovations – Key Takeaways
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- Marks & Spencer leading with innovative products
- Changing packaging in support of the environment
- Supermarkets announce collaboration in response to COVID-19
Who’s Innovating?
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- Prepared meals leading category within own-label
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- Figure 31: New food product launches in own-label products, by sub-category, UK and Ireland, 2015-20
- Marks & Spencer leading in innovative product releases
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- Figure 32: New food product launches, by company, UK and Ireland, 2015-20
- Branded products on the rise within supermarkets
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- Figure 33: New food product launches, by private label vs branded, UK and Ireland, 2015-20
Company Profiles
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- Aldi (RoI only)
- Key facts
- Positioning and strategy
- Brand NPD
- Recent developments
- Asda
- Key facts
- Positioning and strategy
- Brand NPD
- Recent developments
- Dunnes Stores
- Key facts
- Positioning and strategy
- Brand NPD
- Recent developments
- Iceland
- Key facts
- Positioning and strategy
- Brand NPD
- Recent developments
- Lidl
- Key facts
- Positioning and strategy
- Brand NPD
- Recent developments
- Marks & Spencer
- Key facts
- Positioning and strategy
- Brand NPD
- Recent developments
- Sainsbury’s (NI only)
- Key facts
- Positioning and strategy
- Brand NPD
- Recent developments
- SuperValu
- Key facts
- Positioning and strategy
- Brand NPD
- Recent developments
- Tesco
- Key facts
- Positioning and strategy
- Brand NPD
- Recent developments
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Women continue to be more likely to assume sole responsibility for groceries
- Tesco key main grocery shopping location, discounters strongly used for top-up
- Strong preference for own-label products
- Waste remains high on Irish consumers’ agenda
Responsibility for Grocery Shopping
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- Strong engagement with grocery responsibilities
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- Figure 34: Who is responsible for the main grocery shop in their household, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Irish women main grocery shoppers
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- Figure 35: Consumers who are mainly/wholly responsible or share responsibility for grocery retailing in a household, by gender, NI and RoI, November 2020
Locations for Grocery Shopping
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- Tesco continues to be the top choice for main grocery shopping
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- Figure 36: Usage of retailers for main weekly grocery shopping, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Tesco sees strong use across all demographics
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- Figure 37: Usage of Tesco for main weekly grocery shopping, by age, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Wider array of retailers used for top-up shopping
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- Figure 38: Usage of retailers for top-up grocery shopping, NI and RoI, November 2020
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- Figure 39: Usage of selected retailers for top-up grocery shopping, by work status, NI and RoI, November 2020
Branded vs Own-label Preferences
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- Fresh produce most preferred own-label
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- Figure 40: Consumers’ preferences for branded vs own-label groceries, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Men more likely to buy branded goods
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- Figure 41: Consumers who buy branded groceries, by gender, NI and RoI, November 2020
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- Figure 42: Agreement with the statement ‘Own-label goods offer better value for money during COVID-19/coronavirus’, by gender, NI and RoI, November 2020
Attitudes towards Supermarkets
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- Food safety chief concern of Irish shoppers
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- Figure 43: Agreement with statements relating to supermarkets, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Safety first
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- Figure 44: Number of food complaints received, RoI, 2016-19
- Packaging concerns high, but COVID-19 concerns trump this
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- Figure 45: Agreement with the statement ‘Supermarkets should do more to reduce packaging waste’, NI and RoI, 2019 and 2020
- Women more likely to view supermarket and discounter own-label as equal
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- Figure 46: Agreement with the statement ‘There is little difference in the quality of products between supermarket and discount retailers’, by gender and age, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Brexit likely to spur on demand for locally sourced products
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- Figure 47: Agreement with the statement ‘More locally sourced products from N. Ireland/Ireland should be available in supermarkets’, by gender, NI and RoI, November 2020
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Data sources
- Market size rationale
- Generational cohort definitions
- Abbreviations
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