Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- COVID-19 and logistical services
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- Figure 1: Expected impact of COVID-19 on logistical services, short, medium, and long term, 13 November 2020
- The market
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- Figure 2: UK logistical services market value, 2016-20 (£ billion)
- Road freight has faced obstacles but remains largest industry sector
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- Figure 3: UK logistical services market segmentation, by type, 2020 (£ billion)
- A dip in growth expected over the next few years as industry adjusts to the next normal
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- Figure 4: UK logistical services market value forecast, 2021-25 (£ billion at 2020 prices)
- Air freight to grow by greatest proportion
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- Figure 5: UK logistical services market segmentation forecast, by type, 2021-25 (five-year growth)
Issues and Insights
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- Global roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines will be one of the most difficult logistical challenges of all time
- With no EU trade agreement yet in place, the end of the Brexit transition period will bring ‘bedding-in’ hurdles for the industry to contend with
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Industry remains somewhat stable in 2020 although the pandemic has led to a demand shift
- Road freight has faced obstacles but remains largest industry sector
- Air freight to grow by greatest proportion
Market Size
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- Industry remains somewhat stable in 2020 although the pandemic has led to a demand shift in the type of services required
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- Figure 6: UK logistical services market value, 2016-20 (£ billion)
Market Segmentation
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- Road freight has faced obstacles but remains the most valuable aspect of the industry
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- Figure 7: UK logistical services market segmentation, by type, 2016-20 (£ billion)
- Road freight
- Market sees improvement in goods lifted and moved in 2019
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- Figure 8: Annual road freight transport in the UK, 2015-19 (million tonnes lifted, billion tonnes kilometres moved and vehicle million kilometres travelled)
- Level of international road freight declines for first time in for four years
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- Figure 9: Annual international road freight transport by UK-registered vehicles, 2015-19 (million tonnes lifted and billion tonne kilometres moved)
- Small rise in the amount of goods lifted in 2019…
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- Figure 10: Annual goods lifted in the UK, 2015-19, by commodity group (million tonnes)
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- Figure 11: Annual goods lifted in the UK, 2015-19, by region and country of origin (million tonnes)
- ...while the volume of goods lifted outward from and inward to the UK by UK-registered vehicles both declined in 2019
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- Figure 12: Annual goods lifted outward from and inward to the UK by UK-registered vehicles, 2015-19, by commodity group (000 tonnes)
- International goods lifted outward from and inward to the UK by foreign-registered vehicles declines for the second consecutive year in 2018
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- Figure 13: International goods lifted outward from and inward to the UK by foreign-registered HGVs, 2014-18, by European country (000 tonnes unloaded in the UK)
- Small 1% rise in goods moved in the UK in 2019
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- Figure 14: Annual goods moved in the UK, 2015-19, by commodity group (billion tonne kilometres)
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- Figure 15: Annual goods moved in the UK, 2015-19, by region and country of origin (million tonne kilometres)
- International performance in goods moved from and to the UK weakens in 2019
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- Figure 16: Annual goods moved outward from and inward to the UK by UK-registered vehicles, 2015-19, by commodity group (million tonne kilometres)
- Port (marine) freight
- Port freight traffic rises for second successive year in 2019
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- Figure 17: UK port freight traffic, by major and minor ports, 2015-19 (000 tonnes)
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- Figure 18: International and domestic major and minor port freight traffic, by traffic direction, 2015-19 (million tonnes)
- Rise in liquid bulk drives growth in major port traffic in 2019
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- Figure 19: UK major port traffic, by commodity group, 2015-19 (000 tonnes)
- Grimsby and Immingham represents busiest UK port in terms of tonnage
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- Figure 20: Major UK ports, top 10, by total tonnage, 2018 and 2019 (000 tonnes and % of total UK tonnage)
- Number of vessels arriving at UK ports falls to a five-year low in 2019
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- Figure 21: Number of ship arrivals at UK ports, by type and deadweight, 2019 (number of vessels)
- UK interest in large trading ships falls for the third consecutive year in 2019
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- Figure 22: UK interest in trading ships of 100 gross tonnes and over, by type of interest, 2015-19 (deadweight million tonnage)
- Non-trading vessels most commonly owned by the UK, but UK-owned ‘other’ dry cargo vessels carry the most freight
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- Figure 23: UK-owned vessels of 100 gross tonnes and over, by type, at 31 December 2018 and 2019 (number of vessels and gross tonnage in 000 tonnes)
- Rail freight
- Freight train movements fall to a record low in 2019/20
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- Figure 24: Great Britain freight train movements, 2015-19 (number)
- Mass of freight goods carried declines to 34-year low
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- Figure 25: Mass of freight goods carried on the rail network, by type of good, 2015/16-2019/20 (million tonnes)
- Volume of freight moved on rail network falls to a 23-year low
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- Figure 26: Amount of freight moved on the rail network, by type, 2015/16 and 2019/20 (% of total billion net tonne kilometres)
- DB Cargo UK travels furthest for freight means
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- Figure 27: Actual freight train kilometres on Network Rail infrastructure, by operator, 2015-19 (million kilometres)
- Air freight
- Air freight market declines for first time in three years
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- Figure 28: UK air freight, by aircraft configuration and area, 2015-19 (tonnes)
Market Forecast
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- Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
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- Figure 29: Expected impact of COVID-19 on logistical services, short, medium, and long term, 13 November 2020
- Initial lockdown
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 30: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-24 (in % annual change and % rate) - (prepared on 13 November 2020)
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 31: Industry performance following the last recession, 2010-15 (£ million)
- Pandemic to have lasting impact on logistical operating models
- A dip in growth expected over the next few years as industry adjusts to the next normal following COVID-19 and Brexit
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- Figure 32: UK logistical services market value forecast, 2021-25 (£ billion at 2020 prices)
- Air freight to grow by greatest proportion
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- Figure 33: UK logistical services market segmentation forecast, by type, 2021-25 (£ billion at 2020 prices)
- Government targets sea, air, and rail freeports by 2021
The Impact of the Economy
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- Annual GDP growth falls to decade low in 2019 and is expected to decline in 2020 due to COVID-driven economic shutdown
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- Figure 34: Annual GDP growth rate, 2015-20* (% change)
Market Trends
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- E-commerce boom is driving a redesign of supply chain operations…
- …which is also changing warehousing market dynamics
- Skills shortage remains but influx of new recruits expected amidst apprenticeship levy
- Other trends
- First annual increase in the percentage of vehicles running empty since 2016
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- Figure 35: Vehicle percentage empty running, 2015-19, by type and weight of vehicle (%)
- Average haul length remains unchanged for articulated vehicles, but declines for rigid vehicles
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- Figure 36: Average length of haul, 2015-19, by type of vehicle (kilometres)
Market Drivers
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- As the Brexit transition period nears an end, logistical services hurry to prepare for the new market climate
- Non-store retail sales provide outlet for logistical providers as closure of stores over lockdown periods harms overall retail sales volumes
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- Figure 37: Retail sales trends, January 2018-September 2020 (percentage volume change on same month in previous year, seasonally-adjusted)
- Diesel and unleaded prices fall in 2020 as COVID lockdowns drive lower demand
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- Figure 38: Typical retail cost of fuel and the fuel duty level in the UK, 2016-20* (pence per litre)
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- Figure 39: European petrol prices, 2020 (€ per litre)
- Figure 40: European diesel prices, 2020 (€ per litre)
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- DHL launches myDHLi to help reduce freight forwarding complexities
- CEVA Logistics accelerates its own digitalisation with the launch of myCEVA
Industry Structure
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- Industry development
- DPD Group leads list of top providers for second year in a row, whilst others look to consolidate position
- Greater use of traffic management systems as shippers seek optimisation and reduced costs
- Industry M&A and other major deals
- Changes in the structure of the industry
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- Figure 41: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the freight transport by rail industry, 2016-20 (number of outlets and businesses)
- Figure 42: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the freight transport by road industry, 2016-20 (number of outlets and businesses)
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- Figure 43: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the removal services industry, 2016-20 (number of outlets and businesses)
- Figure 44: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the sea and coastal freight water transport industry, 2016-20 (number of outlets and businesses)
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- Figure 45: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the freight transport by inland waterway industry, 2016-20 (number of outlets and businesses)
- Figure 46: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the freight transport by air industry, 2016-20 (number of outlets and businesses)
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- Figure 47: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the operation of warehousing and storage facilities industry, 2016-20 (number of outlets and businesses)
- Figure 48: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the cargo handling industry, 2016-20 (number of outlets and businesses)
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- Figure 49: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the other transportation support activities industry, 2016-20 (number of outlets and businesses)
- Structure by employment
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- Figure 50: Analysis of the employment structure of the freight transport by rail industry, 2019 and 2020 (number of outlets and outlet employment size)
- Figure 51: Analysis of the employment structure of the freight transport by road industry, 2019 and 2020 (number of outlets and outlet employment size)
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- Figure 52: Analysis of the employment structure of the removal services industry, 2019 and 2020 (number of outlets and outlet employment size)
- Figure 53: Analysis of the employment structure of the sea and coastal freight water transport industry, 2019 and 2020 (number of outlets and outlet employment size)
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- Figure 54: Analysis of the employment structure of the freight transport by inland waterway industry, 2019 and 2020 (number of outlets and outlet employment size)
- Figure 55: Analysis of the employment structure of the freight transport by air industry, 2019 and 2020 (number of outlets and outlet employment size)
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- Figure 56: Analysis of the employment structure of the operation of warehousing and storage facilities industry, 2019 and 2020 (number of outlets and outlet employment size)
- Figure 57: Analysis of the employment structure of the cargo handling industry, 2019 and 2020 (number of outlets and outlet employment size)
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- Figure 58: Analysis of the employment structure of the other transportation support activities industry, 2019 and 2020 (number of outlets and outlet employment size)
- Structure by turnover
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- Figure 59: Analysis of the financial structure of the freight transport by rail industry, 2019 and 2020 (£ 000 and % of total turnover)
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- Figure 60: Analysis of the financial structure of the freight transport by road industry, 2019 and 2020 (£ 000 and % of total turnover)
- Figure 61: Analysis of the financial structure of the removal services industry, 2019 and 2020 (£ 000 and % of total turnover)
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- Figure 62: Analysis of the financial structure of the sea and coastal freight water transport industry, 2019 and 2020 (£ 000 and % of total turnover)
- Figure 63: Analysis of the financial structure of the freight transport by inland waterway industry, 2019 and 2020 (£ 000 and % of total turnover)
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- Figure 64: Analysis of the financial structure of the freight transport by air industry, 2019 and 2020 (£ 000 and % of total turnover)
- Figure 65: Analysis of the financial structure of the operation of warehousing and storage facilities industry, 2019 and 2020 (£ 000 and % of total turnover)
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- Figure 66: Analysis of the financial structure of the cargo handling industry, 2019 and 2020 (£ 000 and % of total turnover)
- Figure 67: Analysis of the financial structure of the other transportation support activities industry, 2019 and 2020 (£ 000 and % of total turnover)
Competitive Strategies
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- DHL launches myDHLi to help reduce freight forwarding complexities
- CEVA Logistics accelerates its own digitalisation with the launch of myCEVA
- Wincanton adds over 500,000 sq ft to property portfolio
- P&O Ferrymasters launches first ‘track and trace’ system for containers in Europe
Company Profiles
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- CEVA Logistics
- Recent company activity
- Financial information
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- Figure 68: Financial analysis of CEVA Logistics, 2015-19 (£ million)
- DHL Supply Chain
- Recent company activity
- Financial information
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- Figure 69: Financial analysis of DHL Supply Chain, 2015-19 (£ million)
- Eddie Stobart
- Recent company activity
- Financial information
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- Figure 70: Financial analysis of Eddie Stobart, 2015-19 (£ million)
- Hoyer Petrolog
- Recent company activity
- Financial information
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- Figure 71: Financial analysis of Hoyer Petrolog Limited UK, 2014-18 (£ million)
- Kuehne + Nagel
- Recent company activity
- Financial information
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- Figure 72: Financial analysis of Kuehne + Nagel, 2014-18 (£ million)
- Wincanton Holdings
- Recent company activity
- Financial information
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- Figure 73: Financial analysis of Wincanton Holdings, 2016-20 (£ million)
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Methodology
Further Sources and Contacts
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- Trade associations
- British International Freight Association (BIFA)
- European Logistics Association (ELA)
- Logistics UK ( formerly FTA)
- Road Haulage Association (RHA)
- Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)
- The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (CILT)
- United Kingdom Warehousing Association (UKWA)
- Trade magazines
- Cold Chain News
- Freight Industry Times
- Motor Transport
- Transport Monthly
- Transport News
- Trade events
- Commercial Vehicle Show 2021
- Freight in the City Expo 2021
- Logistics Business Virtual Exhibition
- IMHX 2021
- Seawork 2021
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