What you need to know

The hot dog and sausage category saw significant COVID-19-related sales gains in 2020, nearing $10.5 billion, yet the growth is not sustainable and sales are expected to should fall back to pre-pandemic levels as consumer adapt to new routines and mealtime habits. Still, issues that plagued the category pre-COVID persist. The hot dog segment has been in steady decline for much of the past five years. Sausages, particularly breakfast varieties, should continue their generally positive sales performance, after adjusting back to the pre-COVID norm presumably in 2021.

Key issues covered in this Report

  • COVID-19 impact on consumer behavior regarding hot dogs and sausages

  • The impact of the recession upon the category

  • Leveraging the value and versatility of hot dogs and sausages

  • The potential for flavor innovation in the category

Definition

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definitions:

This report builds on the analysis presented in Mintel’s Hot Dogs and Sausages – US, October 2017 and Hot Dogs and Sausages – US, September 2014. And the September 2014 and April 2013 Reports of the same name. For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definitions:

  • Hot dogs: Any packaged, refrigerated or frozen hot dog or frankfurter (eg Oscar Mayer all-beef hot dogs).

  • Dinner sausage: Any packaged, refrigerated sausage primarily marketed as an option for lunch, dinner, or a snack (eg Johnsonville sweet Italian sausage, Hillshire Farm smoked Bratwurst)

  • Breakfast sausage: Any packaged, refrigerated or frozen sausage primarily marketed as an option for breakfast or a morning snack (eg Jimmy Dean maple pork sausage links, Johnsonville original breakfast patties)

Hot dogs and sausages include all meat types (beef, pork, poultry, etc) and forms (links, patties, ground/crumbled, etc).

Excluded from the market size of this report are vegetarian/meat alternative hot dogs/sausages, hot dogs/sausages sold through the service deli or grocery meat/butcher counter, and prepared items that include hot dogs or sausages as a component, such as frozen corn dogs or breakfast sandwiches.

COVID-19: Market context

The first COVID-19 case was confirmed in the US in January 2020. On March 11, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global health pandemic, and on March 13, President Trump declared a national emergency in the US.

Across the US, state-level stay-at-home orders rolled out throughout the months of March and April, and remained in place through May, and in some cases June. During this time, referred to as lockdown, nonessential businesses and school districts across the nation closed or shifted to remote operations.

During re-emergence, all 50 states have relaxed stay-at-home orders and allowed businesses to operate with varying levels of social distancing measures in place. The continued spread of COVID-19 infections has driven some states to slow down or reverse course on reopening plans. Mintel anticipates the US will remain in a state of flux through 2021 until a vaccine is available.

Economic and other assumptions

This Report assumes the following:

  • 2020 will see unemployment levels of 10.6%, with incremental improvement over the next five years.

  • US GDP will decline 5.8% in 2020 and increase 4% in 2021, followed by continuous increases until 2025.

  • Consumer confidence improved to 74.1 in August 2020, a 2.3-point improvement from its 71.8 April low, indicating that consumer confidence is on an upswing and could improve throughout the rest of the year.

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