2021
9
UK Seasonal Shopping (Autumn/Winter) Market Report 2021
2021-04-27T15:53:25+01:00
OX1044899
2195
137007
[{"name":"Retail","url":"https:\/\/store.mintel.com\/industries\/retail"}]
Report
en_GB
“The pandemic did not deter celebrations for the autumn/winter seasonal events with spending resilient across all events – albeit significantly down on the year before. Uncertainty ahead of a new…

UK Seasonal Shopping (Autumn/Winter) Market Report 2021

£ 2,195 (Excl.Tax)

Report Summary

The UK Seasonal Shopping (Autumn/Winter) report identifies consumer attitudes towards winter shopping, holiday shopping, winter wear market size, gift purchasing, and event spending in the UK. The Market report covers the market size, market forecast, market segmentation and industry trends for the Winter Shopping market and Holiday Shopping market in the UK.  

Current Market Landscape 

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the related lockdowns has had a clear impact on all seasonal events, leading to a significant drop in spending levels in the shopping market. Historically all of these events have been store-oriented and lockdowns have forced shoppers to move online. Despite this, it is encouraging to see that purchasing levels have remained resilient for most autumn and winter seasonal events, with households taking the opportunity to spend time with family and friends.

  • Back-to-School saw only a 9% decline in spending, being the only seasonal event outside of lockdown.
  • Consumer spending on seasonal events during the winter/ autumn months totalled £3 billion in 2020/21.
  • Spending for autumn seasonal events reached an estimated £464 million and £556 million in 2020.

Bonfire Night and Halloween held up well in 2020 despite COVID-19 restrictions on gatherings and household mixing. This boost to purchasing for seasonal events has given retailers plenty of scope to capture spend from consumers who want a reason to celebrate and treat family and friends. This report also covers Shopping Market Segmentation in the Winter Shopping Market and Holiday Shopping Market.

Future Market Trends in Breakfast Cereals 

Seasonal events are particularly sensitive to macroeconomic factors. As such, we expect to see consumers holding back on discretionary spending as the impact of the COVID-19 recession lingers on and Brexit adds further uncertainty to levels of consumer confidence.

The sudden push to online purchasing of gifts and products throughout the pandemic has allowed smaller online players to stand out. Personalisation has been a key theme across events and online players are well placed to cater to this. However, consumers enjoy the store experience during these seasonal events and retailers on the high street capitalise on impulse purchasing, while this habit may be more difficult for online players to capture.

Read on to discover more details or take a look at all of our UK Retail market research.

Quickly understand

  • Impact of COVID-19 on spending levels for seasonal events.
  • Impact of COVID-19 on gift and product buying for seasonal events.
  • Seasonal events activities for Halloween, Bonfire Night and Valentine’s Day.
  • Behaviours related to seasonal events.

Covered in this report

Seasonal Events: Halloween, Bonfire Night, Valentine’s Day, Back-to-School. (Christmas and Black Friday mainly excluded)

Brands: Clarks, Mars, Gail’s, HelloFresh, Not On The High Street, Moonpig, Morrisons, Asda, Sainsbury’s, Rubie’s, Disney, Interflora, Lush, M&S, Etsy, Sports Direct, Beavertown Brewery, Swizzles, MaskClub.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

This report, written by Emily Viberg, a leading analyst in the Retail sector, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

The pandemic did not deter celebrations for the autumn/winter seasonal events with spending resilient across all events – albeit significantly down on the year before. Uncertainty ahead of a new term eclipsed Back-to-School spending with some parents focusing on supporting remote learning. Despite Halloween trick-or-treating being banned, shoppers found ways to celebrate with confectionery and fancy dress topping the shopping list while Bonfire Night spending held up well as consumers took the opportunity to spend time with family and friends in the household. Valentine’s Day celebrations moved indoors as people found new ways to celebrate the day with loved ones.
Emily Viberg
Retail Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

      • Key issues covered in this Report
        • COVID-19: market context
          • Economic and other assumptions
            • Products covered in this Report
            • Executive Summary

                • Impact of COVID-19 on seasonal shopping
                  • Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on seasonal shopping, April 2021
                • The market
                  • Consumer spending significantly down as events are celebrated in lockdown
                    • Figure 2: Estimated consumer spending on the autumn/winter retail events, 2019/20 and 2020/21
                  • Autumn has biggest share of retail sales
                    • Figure 3: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by season, 2020
                  • Impact of lockdowns on retail sales becomes clear
                    • Figure 4: Annual percentage change in all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2018-20
                  • Value of online sales sees significant uptick in 2020
                    • Figure 5: Value of all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2019 and 2020
                  • Consumers fear impact of Brexit on household income
                    • Figure 6: Brexit impact on household income, March 2021
                  • Companies and brands
                    • Adspend drops in 2020 as marketing moves indoors
                      • Figure 7: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by month, 2019 and 2020
                    • Digital benefits from consumers spending more time indoors
                      • Figure 8: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by media type, as a % of total spending, 2019 and 2020
                    • Retailers encourage safe seasonal shopping habits
                      • The consumer
                        • Halloween and Bonfire purchasing holds up well
                          • Figure 9: What they buy for Halloween and Bonfire Night, 2019 and 2020
                        • Parents focus spending to support remote learning
                          • Figure 10: Average amount spent on Back-to-School items, 2019 and 2020
                        • Back-to-School shopping moves online
                          • Figure 11: How they shopped for Back-to-School items, September 2020
                        • Valentine’s Day celebrations move indoors
                          • Figure 12: Valentine’s Day activities, March 2020
                        • Shoppers get personal this Valentine’s Day
                          • Figure 13: Valentine’s Day behaviours, March 2020
                      • Issues and Insights

                        • Impact of COVID-19 on seasonal shopping
                          • Back-to-School spending down amidst uncertainty
                            • Halloween/Bonfire Night are used as an excuse to spend time with family
                              • Valentine’s Day celebrations move indoors
                                • Shift to online gift and product buying for seasonal events
                                  • Back-to-School parents expected to return to stores
                                    • Halloween/Bonfire Night purchases captured by essential retailers
                                      • Valentine’s Day shoppers gift from a distance
                                      • The Market – Key Takeaways

                                        • Leading categories are a mixed bag
                                          • Online sales take up a third of all retail sales during lockdown
                                            • Brexit fears linger
                                            • Market Size and Segmentation

                                              • The impact of COVID-19 on seasonal shopping
                                                • Figure 14: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on seasonal shopping, April 2021
                                              • Consumer spending significantly down as events are celebrated in lockdown
                                                • Figure 15: Estimated consumer spending on the autumn/winter retail events, 2019/20 and 2020/21
                                              • Parents cut back on Back-to-School spending amid uncertainty
                                                • Figure 16: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Back-to-School products in 2020
                                                • Figure 17: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Back-to-School products, 2018-20
                                              • Halloween confectionery dominates spending despite ban on trick-or-treating
                                                • Figure 18: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Halloween products in 2020
                                                • Figure 19: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Halloween products, 2019 and 2020
                                              • Bonfire Night fireworks spending resilient despite COVID-19 restrictions
                                                • Figure 20: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Bonfire Night products in  2020
                                                • Figure 21: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Bonfire Night, 2019 and 2020
                                              • Valentine’s Day spending celebrations move indoors
                                                • Figure 22: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Valentine’s Day products in 2021
                                                • Figure 23: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Valentine’s Day products, 2020 and 2021
                                              • Market drivers and assumptions
                                                • Learnings from the last recession
                                                  • Forecast methodology
                                                  • Retail Sales

                                                    • Autumn has biggest share of retail sales
                                                      • Figure 24: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by season, 2020
                                                      • Figure 25: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2019 and 2020
                                                    • Impact of lockdowns on retail sales becomes clear
                                                      • Figure 26: Annual percentage change in all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2018-20
                                                    • Mixed bag for leading categories
                                                      • Figure 27: Value of leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2018-20
                                                      • Figure 28: Annual percentage change in leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2020
                                                  • Online Retail Sales

                                                    • Online sales take up a third of all retail sales during lockdown
                                                      • Figure 29: Online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, by month, January 2019-February 2021
                                                    • Value of online sales sees significant uptick in 2020
                                                      • Figure 30: Value of all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2019 and 2020
                                                      • Figure 31: Annual percentage change in all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2020
                                                  • Market Drivers

                                                    • Wages outpace inflation
                                                      • Figure 32: Real wage growth – Average weekly earnings vs inflation, 2016-21
                                                    • Population trends
                                                      • Figure 33: Population trends in the UK, 2020-30
                                                      • Figure 34: Population trends in the UK, 2020-30
                                                    • Consumer confidence holds up well
                                                      • Figure 35: Trends in how respondents would describe their financial situation, March 2021
                                                    • Consumers fear impact of Brexit on household income
                                                      • Figure 36: Brexit impact on household income, March 2021
                                                    • Consumers plan on saving
                                                      • Figure 37: How consumers will spend extra money, January 2021
                                                  • Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways

                                                    • Tapping into wider retail trends
                                                      • Retailers encourage safe online seasonal shopping habits
                                                        • Adspend significantly declined in 2020
                                                        • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                          • Back-to-School
                                                            • Clarks offer parents free replacement shoes until February
                                                              • Parents pay same price for uniforms no matter the age with Morrisons new BTS range
                                                                • Figure 38: Morrisons flat-priced BTS range, 2020
                                                              • Asda’s sustainable Back-to-School uniform
                                                                • Figure 39: Asda’s sustainable Back-to-School uniform, 2020
                                                              • Sainsbury’s is selling child-friendly face masks
                                                                • Figure 40: Sainsbury’s range of family face masks
                                                              • Halloween and Bonfire Night
                                                                • Rubie’s #raiseyourspirits campaign
                                                                  • Figure 41: Rubie’s and Bristol Novelty’s Spooky Hand sanitiser
                                                                • Disney’s Halloween face masks
                                                                  • Figure 42: Disney face masks
                                                                • Aldi’s Pumpkin-shaped pizza to enjoy at home
                                                                  • Figure 43: Aldi’s pumpkin-shaped pizza
                                                                • Morrisons launches Halloween and Bonfire Night goody box
                                                                  • Figure 44: Morrisons Halloween and Bonfire Night party boxes, 2020
                                                                • Valentine’s Day
                                                                  • Interflora’s ‘self-partnered’ range of flowers
                                                                    • Figure 45: Interflora’s ‘self-partnered’ flower bouquet 
                                                                  • Lush launches subscription box
                                                                    • Figure 46: Lush subscription box, 2021
                                                                  • M&S swaps flowers for sweets in new Percy Pig flower bouquet
                                                                    • Figure 47: Pig flower bouquet, 2021
                                                                • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                  • Adspend drops in 2020 as marketing moves indoors
                                                                    • Figure 48: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by month, 2019 and 2020
                                                                  • Advertising spend concentrated in the final quarter of the year
                                                                    • Figure 49: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by quarter, as % of total spending, 2019 and 2020
                                                                  • Digital benefits from consumers spending more time indoors
                                                                    • Figure 50: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by media type, as a % of total spending, 2019 and 2020
                                                                  • Key campaigns
                                                                    • Etsy calls for support for local businesses in Valentine’s Day campaign
                                                                      • Figure 51: Etsy’s Valentine’s Day campaign 2021
                                                                    • Rubie’s #raiseyourspirits campaign
                                                                      • Figure 52: Rubie’s and Bristol Novelty’s Spooky Hand sanitiser
                                                                    • Sports Direct’s first Christmas campaign
                                                                      • Figure 53: Sports Direct Christmas campaign
                                                                    • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                    • The Consumer – Key Takeaways

                                                                      • Impact of COVID-19 on gift and product purchasing
                                                                        • Online shopping during seasonal events in 2020
                                                                          • COVID-19 heightened sense of community
                                                                          • Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour

                                                                            • Consumers cut back discretionary spending
                                                                              • COVID-19 heightened sense of community
                                                                                • Figure 54: Consumers cutting back on non-essential spending and buying from more local businesses, 19-23 March 2021
                                                                              • Consumers move shopping habits online
                                                                                • The pandemic makes click-and-collect appealing
                                                                                  • Figure 55: Changing shopping habits due to pandemic, 19-23 March 2021
                                                                                • Consumers’ finances significantly impacted by COVID-19
                                                                                  • Figure 56: How COVID-19 has impacted households, 4-12 March 2021
                                                                              • What They Buy for Seasonal Events

                                                                                • Back-to-School purchasing takes a hit due to COVID-19 uncertainty
                                                                                  • Figure 57: Back-to-School purchasing, 2019 and 2020
                                                                                • Halloween and Bonfire purchasing holds up well
                                                                                    • Figure 58: What they buy for Halloween and Bonfire Night, 2019 and 2020
                                                                                  • Valentine’s Day purchasing remains resilient despite lockdown
                                                                                    • Figure 59: What products are bought for Valentine’s Day, 2020 and 2021
                                                                                  • Black Friday sees subdued purchasing
                                                                                    • Figure 60: What they buy during Black Friday, 2019 and 2020
                                                                                • How Much They Spend on Seasonal Gifts and Products

                                                                                  • Parents focus spending to support remote learning
                                                                                    • Figure 61: Average amount spent on Back-to-School items, 2019 and 2020
                                                                                  • Spending on Halloween and Bonfire Night products grows despite COVID-19 restrictions
                                                                                    • Figure 62: How much they spend on Halloween and Bonfire Night products, 2019 and 2020
                                                                                  • Valentine’s Day spending levels take a hit as celebrations move indoors
                                                                                    • Figure 63: How much they spend on Valentine’s Day gifts, 2020 and 2021
                                                                                  • Valentine’s Day gift recipients
                                                                                    • Figure 64: Who consumers buy Valentine’s Day gifts for, 2020 and 2021
                                                                                • How They Shop

                                                                                  • Back-to-School shopping moves online
                                                                                    • Figure 65: How they shopped for Back-to-School items, September 2020
                                                                                  • Halloween and Bonfire Night shopping remains in-store
                                                                                    • Figure 66: How products were bought, November 2020
                                                                                  • Valentine’s Day shoppers opt for online gift buying in 2021
                                                                                    • Figure 67: How they shopped for Valentine’s Day gifts, March 2020
                                                                                  • How Black Friday items were delivered
                                                                                    • Figure 68: How items purchased during Black Friday were delivered, December 2020
                                                                                • Where They Shop

                                                                                  • Supermarkets benefit from essential status
                                                                                    • Figure 69: Where they shopped for Back-to-School items, 2019 and 2020
                                                                                  • Tesco the Halloween and Bonfire Night favourite retailer
                                                                                    • Figure 70: Which retailer they shop at for Halloween and Bonfire Night products, November 2020
                                                                                • Seasonal Shopping Activities

                                                                                  • Halloween and Bonfire Night activities
                                                                                    • Figure 71: Halloween and Bonfire Night activities, November 2020
                                                                                  • Valentine’s Day celebrations move indoors
                                                                                    • Figure 72: Valentine’s Day activities, March 2020
                                                                                • Seasonal Shopping Behaviours

                                                                                  • Consumers prioritise Christmas over Halloween…
                                                                                    • …but COVID-19 does not deter all from celebrating
                                                                                      • Figure 73: Halloween and Bonfire Night behaviours, November 2020
                                                                                    • Retailers should reassure parents it’s safe to shop in-store
                                                                                      • Protective wear becomes part of the new school uniform
                                                                                        • Figure 74: Back-to-School behaviours, September 2020
                                                                                      • Valentine’s Day behaviours
                                                                                        • Shoppers get personal this Valentine’s Day
                                                                                          • Figure 75: Valentine’s Day behaviours, March 2020
                                                                                        • Black Friday used to purchase Christmas gifts
                                                                                          • Figure 76: Black Friday behaviours, December 2020
                                                                                      • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                          • Abbreviations
                                                                                            • Consumer research methodology

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