Compared to before COVID-19, 65% of British adults expect to spend more of their spare time at home and 62% expect to socialise less in-person over the next 12 months. This illustrates consumers’ expectation that their lives are not going to return to any kind of ‘normality’ soon.

COVID-19 has dramatically changed the landscape of the UK leisure sector. While consumers’ appetite for novel and challenging experiences remains, out-of-home leisure operators such as restaurants, pubs and live entertainment organisers will be heavily restricted and under immense pressure at least until a vaccine is found.

The uncertain economic climate and the risk of high unemployment pose further threats to operators as people will show caution when making discretionary purchases.

In the medium term, the at-home leisure experience presents a wealth of opportunities. The increasing focus on mental health, which has been accelerated as a result of COVID-19, is expected to continue driving demand for leisure activities that help de-stress, switch-off and bring people together. Beyond the pandemic, the long-term outlook for the entire leisure market is strong and consumers will return to venues in droves once they feel safe.

• The impact of COVID-19 on consumers’ leisure habits.

• Activities that people have spent more time on since the start of COVID-19.

• Motivations for beginning new hobbies and interests.

• How consumers expect to spend their leisure time over the next 12 months.

• Consumers’ wider spending priorities and putting leisure in context.

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020 with a small number of cases in February. The government focused on the ‘contain’ stage of its strategy, with the country continuing to operate much as normal. As the case level rose significantly, the government ordered the closure of hospitality venues such as pubs and restaurants (except for takeaway) on 20 March 2020.

A wider lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, exercise and work ‘if absolutely necessary’ followed on 23 March. Initially, a three-week timeframe was put on the measures, which was extended in mid-April for another three weeks.

On 10 May 2020, the Prime Minister announced revised guidance, recommending that people who could not work from home should return to the workplace, and giving people more scope to spend time out of the home. Further relaxations to lockdown rules were announced in the week of the 23 May, including the gradual re-opening of non-essential retailers, and increased opportunities for social interaction across households.

On 23 June, the government announced that pubs, restaurants, hotels and other holiday accommodation, and hairdressers would be allowed to re-open in England from 4 July. The guidelines on social distancing were also modified from 2.0 metres to ‘1.0 metre-plus’ on 4 July, with people in England advised to keep two metres apart where possible, but where not possible to keep one metre apart while taking ‘mitigating measures’.

In Scotland, pubs were allowed to open beer gardens from 6 July and could welcome indoor trade from 15 July, when the 2.0 metre rule was reduced to ‘1.0 metre-plus’ for public transport, hospitality and retail. In Wales, pubs and restaurants were allowed to open outdoors-only from 13 July and indoors from 3 August, with exemptions made to the 2.0 metre rule for businesses that cannot adhere to this distance as long as other precautions are taken.

On 9 September 2020, HM Government published guidance for England centred on the ‘rule of six’. Venues following COVID-19 secure guidelines can host more than six people in total, but no one should visit in a group of greater than six. It will be illegal to be in group of more than six from outside of one household from 14 September. Those visiting one of these places, such as a pub, shop, leisure venue, restaurant or place of worship, should:

• Avoid social interaction with anyone outside the group

• Provide contact details to the organiser to be contacted if needed by the NHS Test and Trace programme

On 22 September 2020, the government announced that from 24 September 2020 pubs, cafés and restaurants in England will only be allowed to provide table service, operating until 10pm, while people have been told to work from home if they can.

On 12 October 2020, the government outlined a standardised three tiered system of local COVID Alert Levels in England.

• Tier one “medium” alert level consists of the current national measures, announced on 22 September, detailed above.

• Tier two “high” alert level aims to reduce household-to-household transmission by preventing all mixing between households or support bubbles indoors. The ‘rule of six’ will apply in outdoor spaces, including private gardens.

• Tier three “very high” alert level applies where transmission rates are causing the greatest concern. In these areas, the government set a baseline of prohibiting social mixing indoors and in private gardens, with the ‘rule of six’ allowed in open public spaces like parks and beaches. Pubs and bars must close, and can only remain open where they operate as if they were a restaurant. They may only serve alcohol as part of a meal. People will be advised not to travel in and out of these areas. The closure of gyms and leisure centres will be negotiated with individual areas upon entering this

On 5 November 2020, the three-tier system in England was replaced with an England-wide lockdown, initially in place until 2 December. This included the closure of non-essential out-of-home leisure and entertainment venues. As of 1 November Scotland had its own 4-tier system of restrictions but no national lockdown had been introduced, whilst Wales had introduced a short ‘firebreak’ lockdown from 23 October to 9 November.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its July 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK GDP could fall by 12.4% in 2020, recovering by 8.7% in 2021, and that unemployment will reach 11.9% by the end of 2020, falling to 8.8% by the end of 2021. The current uncertainty, however, means there is wide variation on the range of forecasts, which is reflected in the OBR’s own scenarios. In its upside scenario, economic activity returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by Q1 2021. The OBR’s more negative scenario, by contrast, would mean that GDP doesn’t recover until Q3 2024.

We are working on the assumption that a vaccine will be available by mid-2021, but that there will be continued disruption to both domestic and global markets for some time after.

At the time of writing (20 October 2020), a second wave of coronavirus is in progress and further lockdown measures have been introduced. We do not expect industries such as hospitality, travel and live entertainment to return to any kind of normality until a vaccine is introduced.

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definitions:

The term leisure time refers to time outside of work, childcare, errands, household chores and sleep. This includes leisure time spent both out-of-home and at-home.

Travel and travel-related activities are not included in this Report.