53% of consumers say they would be happy to download the government’s COVID-19 contact tracing app, whilst 30% say they wouldn’t be and 17% “don’t know” if they would. Additionally, 41% of consumers say that privacy concerns have “made me use an app less frequently than I used to” and concerns around the infringement of their personal liberty can mean there will be hesitancy among some parts of the population to download the app.

The market for mobile apps is estimated to grow by a significant margin in 2020, to £2,748 million, a 43.3% increase from 2019. Mintel expects this year’s growth to be consolidated and built on in the next five years, as habitual behaviours such as retail activities via apps become more widely embedded, as consumers become more familiar and confident in their use. The 5G network will also likely mean that apps such as streaming video will become more popular as the ability to download content easily and quickly will provide a further boost to their use over time.

Whilst the mobile apps market has seen record growth in 2020, threats from consumer overload of digital information may see, in the longer term, some switching off as they seek a digital detox away from apps and notifications.

Longer-term opportunities include the development of instant apps or Progressive Web Apps, which combine features of a native app delivered via the web in a more seamless manner, and which don’t require active download and registering to use. The growth of apps on wearables will be another driver for growth in the longer term.

Key issues covered in this Report

  • The impact of COVID-19 on the mobile apps market including consumer attitudes towards the COVID-19 tracing app.

  • Innovations of companies operating in the mobile apps market.

  • Key factors driving the market and projections for the market size of the mobile app market to 2025.

  • What apps consumers use and how frequently they download them.

  • Consumer attitudes and behaviours, including how they discover mobile apps, what makes consumers stop using apps and attitudes towards emerging app technologies such as AR.

COVID-19: market context

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January, with a small number of cases in February. The government focused on the ‘contain’ stage of its strategy, with the country continuing to operate much as normal. As the case level rose, the government ordered the closure of non-essential stores on 20 March.

A wider lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, exercise and work ‘if absolutely necessary’ followed on 23 March. Initially, a three-week timeframe was put on the measures, which was extended in mid-April for another three weeks.

The Health Protections Regulations 2020 came into effect on 15 June allowing the reopening of all non-essential stores in England as well as the mandatory use of face coverings on public transport. Pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers were able to reopen on 4 July, with many beauty businesses following on 13 July.

From 24 July, it became mandatory to wear face coverings in shops and supermarkets. 

On 9 September, new guidelines were announced in England as a reaction to rising numbers of COVID-19 cases. The major change was a tightening of restrictions on social contact, with people only allowed to socialise with groups of up to six people who they don’t live with.

On 22 September, the government announced a further tightening of restrictions coming into effect from 24 September, stipulating that pubs, bars and restaurants must close at 10pm, while plans to allow fans to return to sporting events were paused. People were also told they should work from home wherever possible.

Economic and other assumptions

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its July 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK GDP could fall by 12.4% in 2020, recovering by 8.7% in 2021, and that unemployment will reach 11.9% by the end of 2020, falling to 8.8% by the end of 2021.

The current uncertainty means that there is wide variation on the range of forecasts, however, and this is reflected in the OBR’s own scenarios. In its upside scenario, economic activity returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by Q1 2021. Its more negative scenario, by contrast, would mean that GDP doesn’t recover until Q3 2024.

Products covered in this Report

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definitions:

This Report covers apps designed to run on mobile devices (smartphones, tablets and smartwatches). Mobile apps are typically compatible with iOS, Android or Windows 10 Mobile. Market size discussion focuses on revenue estimates for Apple’s App Store and Google Play, which sell apps for smartphones, tablets and smartwatches. Whilst consumer research includes data for Windows and other operating systems, low sample sizes mean some analyses focus on only Android and iOS systems.

Some data in this Report is supplied by app analytics firm App Annie. All App Annie data is identified as such when quoted. For more information from App Annie please email contact@appannie.com or visit its website, www.appannie.com.

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