Sports participants have refused to let the restrictions on physical activity imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic weaken their enthusiasm for play: 81% continued to exercise during the spring lockdown and two thirds say they would like to take part more often once the next ‘normal’ arrives.

The market’s main problem during the pandemic is not that consumers have been unwilling to spend but rather that they have been unable to do so: the prolonged closure of many participation venues and the restrictions on activity that have accompanied their reopening are expected to depress market value by 39% in 2020.

The principal threat to recovery in 2021 and beyond is that providers are unable to fully serve this latent demand as a result of prolonged infection-control measures and the revenue crises facing the local authorities and national governing bodies (NGBs), who are the principal funders of facilities.

The next normal is also expected to be characterised by an increasing prioritisation of mental wellbeing over physical fitness as the key influence on our overall health. This presents a challenge to all sports to demonstrate their positive impact on the mind as well as the body, but also a growth opportunity for those that can do so, most likely by promoting the fun of play and putting inclusion and individual development ahead of the pressure of formal competition.

Key issues covered in this Report

  • The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behaviour and market dynamics in the sports participation sector.

  • The threat to sports provision posed by ageing facilities and the weakening ability of local authorities and NGBs to replace them.

  • The implications for sport of shifting consumer health priorities from physical fitness to mental wellbeing.

  • The opportunities for market growth available through the convergence of physical and digital experiences in sport.

  • The need for sports providers to support rising participation rates in older age groups.

COVID-19: market context

This update was prepared on 5 October 2020.

The UK’s first cases of COVID-19 were confirmed at the end of January 2020, followed by a small number of clusters the following month.

The country continued to operate as normal during what was termed the ‘contain’ period of the government’s response strategy, until numbers of diagnosed cases, hospitalisations and deaths began to increase dramatically in March.

At this point, the government moved into its ‘delay’ phase, introducing stricter self-isolation criteria, banning large public gatherings and, on 20 March, ordering the closure of a wide range of non-essential shops, pubs, restaurants and leisure venues, including all sports facilities.

A wider lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, an hour a day of exercise, and work ‘if absolutely necessary’ followed on 23 March.

The time limit on exercise was lifted on 13 May, when tennis courts, golf courses and outdoor sports courts were also allowed to reopen, albeit with participation restricted to members of the same household. The other provisions remained in place until the end of May, when the initial peak of the pandemic had passed.

At this point, the government began to relax restrictions on social interaction outside the home and on 15 June amended the Health Protection Regulations 2020 to allow the reopening of all non-essential stores in England and make mandatory the use of face coverings on public transport, a requirement extended to all shops from 24 July.

In England, pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers were able to reopen on 4 July, but outdoor swimming pools remained closed until 11 July and leisure centres and indoor pools were not permitted to resume operations until 25 July. In Scotland, outdoor pools reopened on 29 May but indoor leisure centres and pools did not follow until 31 August. In Wales, leisure centres and swimming pools reopened on 10 August.

On 14 September, a new ‘rule of six’ came into force in England prohibiting all social gatherings of more than six people. Sports venues following COVID-19 secure guidelines were exempted from this so long as individual groups within them were no larger than six and did not mix. Team sports involving more than six players organised in a COVID-19-secure manner were also initially exempted but on 22 September, indoor sports were removed from the list.

In Scotland, organised non-contact sport remained permissible indoors where physical distancing can be maintained, and in Wales, groups of up to 30 people were permitted to exercise or play together if observing physical distancing rules.

The government’s expectation is that the restrictions in England are likely to remain in place until March 2021.

Economic and other assumptions

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)’s central scenario included in its July 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK gross domestic product (GDP) could fall by 12.4% in 2020, recovering by 8.7% in 2021, and that unemployment will reach 11.9% by the end of 2020, falling to 8.8% by the end of 2021.

The current uncertainty means that there is wide variation in the range of forecasts however, and this is reflected in the OBR’s own scenarios. In its upside scenario, economic activity returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by Q1 2021. Its more negative scenario, by contrast, would mean that GDP doesn’t recover until Q3 2024.

The forecasts included in this Report are based on these economic assumptions, supplemented by our understanding of the operational impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the activity restrictions imposed around it, such as the uncertain future surrounding a significant number of public sports venues, the ongoing restrictions on some activities posed by physical distancing requirements, and the revenue crisis many governing bodies and their member clubs now face.

Products covered in this Report

Mintel’s definition of ‘participation sports’ is based on that set out by Sport England, which states that ‘the purpose of the activity must be sporting and not a means to another purpose’ and that it ‘must have an established structure, defined by rules, and where appropriate, organised national or international competition’.

Mintel’s interpretation of the second element of this extends to the inclusion of athletic activities undertaken for fitness rather than competitive purposes, such as aerobics and/or weight training in a gym, and which are therefore less formally structured in terms of their rules and organisation, but which still have an accepted means of or basis for participation.

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel’s definition of ‘sport’ includes all activities listed below, which have been grouped under four key typologies for the purposes of discussion throughout the Report:

Individual/keep-fit sports:

  • Aerobics/fitness classes

  • Athletics/running

  • Cycling

  • Jogging

  • Swimming

  • Weight training/gym

  • Yoga/Pilates

Team/competitive sports:

  • Basketball

  • Cricket

  • Football

  • Golf

  • Hockey

  • Rugby (union/league)

  • Volleyball

Racquet sports:

  • Badminton

  • Squash

  • Table tennis

  • Tennis

Outdoor/alternative sports:

  • Action sports (eg BMX, skateboarding)

  • Climbing

  • Fencing

  • Fishing

  • Footgolf

  • Hiking/rambling

  • Martial arts (eg karate, kung fu)

  • Skiing/snowboarding

  • Watersports (eg windsurfing, canoeing)

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