Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on yogurt and yogurt drinks
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on yogurt and yogurt drinks, September 2020
- Opportunities and Challenges
- Reemergence
- Yogurt’s inherent BFY reputation enhances pandemic performance
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- Figure 3: Reasons for eating more yogurt, July 2020
- Lead with specific BFY claims like protein, low sugar
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- Figure 4: Attributes important in yogurt and yogurt drink purchase, July 2020
- Category needs to meet consumers at home
- Recovery
- Small innovations can lead to sizeable gains
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- Figure 5: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, 2007-12
- Decline in HHs with children requires a shift to target older health seekers
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- Figure 6: Households, by presence of own children, 2009-19
- Market is sweet on sugar reduction; many roads exist
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- COVID-19 accelerates category growth
- The last recession shows the category’s staying power
- Both segments should see growth through 2025
- Brands will need to ensure retail availability matches consumer demand
- Prevalence of digestive concerns points to strong opportunity
Market Size and Forecast
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- COVID-19 accelerates category turnaround
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- Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on yogurt and yogurt drinks
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- Figure 10: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on yogurt and yogurt drinks, September 2020
- Lockdown
- Reemergence
- Recovery
- Learnings from the last recession: category saw sustained growth, but wasn’t an instant winner
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks, 2007-12
- COVID-19: US context
Segment Performance
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- Both segments should see growth through 2025
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt and yogurt drinks and percentage change, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
- Brands will want to diversify their retail reach and capabilities
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks and percentage change, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
Market Factors
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- Continued high unemployment challenges consumer confidence
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- Figure 14: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-August 2020
- Strong spend on food at home benefits category
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- Figure 15: Sales of food at home and away from home, January 2010-July 2020
- Mintel Trend Driver: Value
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- Figure 16: Mintel Trend Driver Value
- Figure 17: Top three yogurt launches ranked by purchase intent, January 2019-August 2020
- Already high instance of snacking grows
- Honey, I’m (working/schooling/doing everything from) home
- Mintel Trend Driver: Wellbeing
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- Figure 18: Mintel Trend Driver, Wellbeing
- Figure 19: Top three yogurt drink launches ranked by purchase intent, January 2019-August 2020
- Consumers are reducing their sugar intake
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- Figure 20: Sweetener usage trend, September 2018
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- Figure 21: Yogurt and yogurt drink launches, by average sugars, 2018-20*
- Prevalence of digestive concerns points to strong opportunity for category
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- Figure 22: “From A to Z Your Gut Is Where It All Begins,” July 6, 2020
- Figure 23: Gastrointestinal/digestive concerns – Net – Any concern, June 2020
- 40% of US households use dairy alternatives
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- Figure 24: Reasons for using dairy alternatives, March 2020
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- Figure 25: Perception of spoonable yogurt launches, by dairy versus plant-based, January 2019-August 2020
- Decline in households with children will present future challenge
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- Figure 26: Households, by presence of own children, 2009-19
- Figure 27: Households with related children under 18 in the household, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2019
Market Opportunities
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- Mintel Trend Driver: Experiences
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- Figure 28: Mintel Trend Driver Experiences
- Strawberry rules, but there’s room for more indulgence
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- Figure 29: Top three yogurt launches perceived as “tasty,” January 2019-August 2020
- Figure 30: Yogurt and yogurt drink launches, by leading flavors, 2018-20*
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- Figure 31: Yogurt launches, by fastest growing flavors, 2018-20*
- Dairy-free can boost its flavor game
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- Figure 32: Yogurt launches, by inclusions, 2018-20*
- Differentiation can come from becoming an ingredient leader
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- Figure 33: Milk alternatives – Interest and occasions – Any occasion (net), March 2020
- Lead with specific BFY claims like protein, low sugar
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- Figure 34: Top three yogurt launches perceived as “healthy,” January 2019-August 2020
- Figure 35: Yogurt and yogurt drink launches, by leading claims, 2018-20*
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- Figure 36: Top three yogurt drink launches perceived as “healthy,” January 2019-August 2020
- Figure 37: Yogurt and yogurt drink launches, by fastest growing claims, 2018-20*
- Deliver a stronger protein boost
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- Figure 38: Yogurt and yogurt drink launches, by average protein, 2018-20*
- Figure 39: “#YoGlutes,” January 30, 2020
- Dairy case feeling cramped? Consider a move to the freezer or juice case
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- Figure 40: Top three yogurt drink launches perceived as “tasty,” January 2019-August 2020
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Danone controls a third of MULO sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks
- Chobani posts the strongest company-wide gains
- Private label sales increase by 6.4%
- Yogurt drink brands aimed at Hispanic consumers do well
- Category innovation is strong and runs the gamut
Market Share
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- Four companies control three quarters of MULO sales of yogurt/drinks company performance
- Market leader Danone nurtures a deep bench to reverse declines
- Chobani posts the largest leader gains, no slowdown in sight
- General Mills slows the bleeding, should take advantage of co-branding opportunities
- Private label growth outpacing category, but sustained growth isn’t a given
- Sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks by company
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- Figure 41: US multi-outlet sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by leading companies, 52 weeks ending August 9, 2020
- Figure 42: US multi-outlet sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by leading companies, 52 weeks ending August 9, 2020
- Danone’s highs and lows are seen in the spoonable segment
- Company/brand sales of spoonable yogurt
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- Figure 43: US multi-outlet sales of spoonable yogurt, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Yakult sees strong growth in yogurt drinks segment
- Success of Hispanic-focused drink brands suggests opportunity for value offerings
- Company/brand sales of yogurt drinks/kefir
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- Figure 44: US multi-outlet sales of yogurt drinks/kefir, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Competitive Strategies
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- Category leaders aim for innovation on and off the shelf
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- Figure 45: Mintel Trend Driver Rights
- The oat milk craze finds its way to yogurt
- Market is sweet on sugar reduction, many roads exist
- Brands look to please parents by supporting healthy kids
- Promoting the culture club
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- 81% of US households purchase yogurt; 54% purchase yogurt drinks
- 40% of yogurt eaters have increased consumption in the past year
- The snack occasion is of key importance to the category
- Multi-serving has potential to grow adoption in both segments
- Protein is a leading attribute of interest category-wide
Yogurt and Yogurt Drink Purchase
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- Category grows consumer base; non-dairy draw slows
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- Figure 46: Yogurt and yogurt drink purchase, September 2019 and July 2020
- Yogurt drinks should coddle men and make their case to women
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- Figure 47: Yogurt and yogurt drink purchase – for myself, by gender, July 2020
- Yogurt drinks have the opportunity to grow older consumer base
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- Figure 48: Yogurt and yogurt drink purchase – for myself, by age, July 2020
- Successful brands will court Hispanic consumers
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- Figure 49: Yogurt and yogurt drink purchase – for myself, by Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Parents dominate category participation, and they need your help
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- Figure 50: Yogurt and yogurt drink purchase, by parental status, July 2020
Reasons for Choosing Yogurt
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- Yogurt ticks the main boxes; brands can act as health guides
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- Figure 51: Reasons for choosing yogurt, July 2020
- Function and health have strong appeal among women
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- Figure 52: Reasons for choosing yogurt, by gender, July 2020
- Digestive health not a strong draw for youngest yogurt shoppers
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- Figure 53: Reasons for choosing yogurt, by age, July 2020
- Convenience is a strong selling point for parents
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- Figure 54: Reasons for choosing yogurt, by parental status, July 2020
Reasons for Choosing Yogurt Drinks
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- Yogurt drinks need to meet consumers at home
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- Figure 55: Reasons for choosing yogurt drinks, July 2020
- Target women through healthy snack positioning
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- Figure 56: Reasons for choosing yogurt drinks, by gender, July 2020
Change in Yogurt Consumption
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- 40% of yogurt eaters have increased their consumption in the past year
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- Figure 57: Change in yogurt consumption, July 2020
- Yogurt’s inherent BFY reputation enhances pandemic performance
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- Figure 58: Reasons for eating more yogurt, July 2020
- Flavor innovation has allowed yogurt to boost participation among men
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- Figure 59: Change in yogurt consumption, by gender, July 2020
- Figure 60: Reasons for eating more yogurt, by gender, July 2020
- Half of Hispanic yogurt eaters have increased consumption in the past year
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- Figure 61: Change in yogurt consumption, by Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Figure 62: Reasons for eating more yogurt, by Hispanic origin, July 2020
- A third of yogurt reducers are turning to other options
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- Figure 63: Reasons for eating less yogurt, July 2020
Yogurt Types Purchased
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- Flavor
- Yogurt’s flavor game is generally strong; brands must avoid complacency
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- Figure 64: Yogurt types purchased – flavor, July 2020
- Mix-ins can keep younger consumers engaged
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- Figure 65: Yogurt types purchased – flavor, by age, July 2020
- Interactive yogurt has stronger appeal among Hispanic shoppers
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- Figure 66: Yogurt types purchased – flavor, by Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Format
- Single-serves rule yogurt; flavored multi-serves could meet at-home needs
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- Figure 67: Yogurt types purchased – format, July 2020
- Multi-packs can appeal to young and old alike
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- Figure 68: Yogurt types purchased – format, by age, July 2020
- A third of Hispanic shoppers purchase multi-packs of different flavors
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- Figure 69: Yogurt types purchased – format, by Hispanic origin, July 2020
Yogurt Drink Types Purchased
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- Flavor
- Expanding flavored varieties can boost yogurt drink appeal
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- Figure 70: Yogurt drink types purchased – flavor, July 2020
- Format
- Avoid pigeonholing drinks as on-the-go-only options
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- Figure 71: Yogurt drink types purchased – format, July 2020
- Love of drinks (big and small) makes men a target for home convenience
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- Figure 72: Yogurt drink types purchased – format, by gender, July 2020
- Opportunity to position single-serves for 45+
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- Figure 73: Yogurt drink types purchased – format, by age, July 2020
- Being kid-friendly requires being parent-friendly
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- Figure 74: Yogurt drink types purchased – format, by who purchase for, July 2020
Attributes Important in Yogurt Purchase
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- Yogurt buyers look for low sugar, high protein
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- Figure 75: Attributes important in yogurt purchase, July 2020
- Women are focused on nutritionals
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- Figure 76: Attributes important in yogurt purchase, by gender, July 2020
- Moving beyond basic nutrition will appeal to younger shoppers
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- Figure 77: Attributes important in yogurt purchase, by age, July 2020
- Flavor variety, environment have strong appeal among non-dairy buyers
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- Figure 78: Attributes important in yogurt purchase, by dairy/non-dairy, July 2020
- Developmental health focus should resonate with parents
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- Figure 79: Attributes important in yogurt purchase, by who purchase for, July 2020
Attributes Important in Yogurt Drink Purchase
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- Protein and probiotics rule yogurt drink choice
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- Figure 80: Attributes important in yogurt drink purchase, July 2020
- Men are particularly protein aware; women look for low/no claims
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- Figure 81: Attributes important in yogurt drink purchase, by gender, July 2020
- Probiotics and calcium have fairly wide appeal
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- Figure 82: Attributes important in yogurt drink purchase, by age, July 2020
Yogurt and Yogurt Drink Style Experience and Interest
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- Style expansion will help grow yogurt participation
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- Figure 83: Yogurt/drink style experience and interest – yogurt style, July 2020
- Healthy flavors maintain slight lead over indulgence; don’t deny a splurge
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- Figure 84: Yogurt/drink style experience and interest – flavor, July 2020
- Dairy/non-dairy blends can offer the best of both worlds: health and variety
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- Figure 85: Yogurt/drink style experience and interest – non-dairy, July 2020
- Sugar alternatives are an area of interest
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- Figure 86: Yogurt/drink style experience and interest – other, July 2020
- Innovation resonates with core audience; health retooling is strongest path to elusive older shoppers
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- Figure 87: Yogurt/drink style experience and interest – flavor and other – any interest (net*), by age, July 2020
Yogurt and Yogurt Drink Health Statements
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- Consumers seek health, not restriction
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- Figure 88: Health statements, July 2020
- Yogurt drink buyers are more likely to be looking at nutritionals
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- Figure 89: Health statements, by yogurt/drink purchase, July 2020
- Appeal to men through protein specificity; focus on cultures for women
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- Figure 90: Health statements, by gender, July 2020
- Hispanic consumers are more likely to be looking for low sugar/calories
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- Figure 91: Health statements, by Hispanic origin, July 2020
Yogurt Replacement
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- Yogurt replacements tend toward health versus indulgence
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- Figure 92: Yogurt replacement, July 2020
- Men would be more likely to seek out creamy indulgence
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- Figure 93: Yogurt replacement, by gender, July 2020
- Yogurt smoothies should appeal to young adults
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- Figure 94: Yogurt replacement, by age, July 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 95: Total US retail sales and forecast of spoonable yogurt, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 96: Total US retail sales and forecast of spoonable yogurt, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 97: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 98: Total US retail sales and forecast of yogurt drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 99: US supermarket sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 100: US sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks through other retail channels, at current prices, 2015-20
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Appendix – Companies and Brands
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- Figure 101: US multi-outlet sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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