Table of Contents
Executive Summary
-
- Top takeaways
- Market overview
-
- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast, including ecommerce, at current prices, 2015-25
-
- Figure 2: Total US retail ecommerce sales and forecast, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on retail and ecommerce
-
- Figure 3: Short-, medium-and long-term impact of COVID-19 on retail and ecommerce, August 2020
- Challenges and opportunities
- Some retailers will thrive, some won’t survive
- Provide assurance relative to shopping safely
- Rethink the purpose of the store
- Connect with customers through technology
- Connect with customers through shared values
- Connect with customers through personalization
- What it means/what’s next
The Market – What You Need to Know
-
- Retail industry faces an uphill battle
- eCommerce is the bright spot during the pandemic
- Pandemic has divided the industry
- Recession causes consumers to spend less and try to save more
- Population trends serve as leading indicators for retail’s future
Market Size and Forecast
-
- Prepandemic expectations for 2020 were positive
- Retail sales tick upward but remain below 2019 levels
-
- Figure 4: Total 2020 retail sales by month, percentage change from prior month and year, September 2020
- Recovery to prepandemic levels will be slow, could take a few years
-
- Figure 5: Total US retail sales and forecast, including ecommerce, at current prices, 2015-25
- eCommerce is winning in the pandemic
-
- Figure 6: Total US retail ecommerce sales and forecast, at current prices, 2015-25
-
- Figure 7: eCommerce share of total US retail sales, 2015-25
Market Breakdown
-
- A mighty few store types dominate retail sales
-
- Figure 8: Percentage of total retail sales by kind of business*, 2019
- Most sectors are facing declines thus far in 2020
- Year-to-date 2020 sales performance
-
- Figure 9: Percentage change of total retail sales by kind of business*, January-July 2020 versus 2019, September 2020
- August 2020 sales performance
-
- Figure 10: US retail sales in August 2020 compared to last month and last year, September 2020
- Electronics, clothing and furniture fast-growing categories for ecommerce; online grocery will reach new heights in 2020
-
- Figure11: Share of ecommerce sales, by product category, 2016 and 2018
- Most online shopping still done on computers, but mobile devices continue to quickly gain ground
-
- Figure 12: Typical online shopping device, March 2020
Market Factors
-
- Economic factors
- Limited disposable income does not bode well for discretionary categories
-
- Figure 13: Financial health, by household income, August 27-September 8, 2020
- The recession continues
- Consumer confidence and unemployment
-
- Figure 14: Consumer confidence and unemployment, January-August 2020
- Gross domestic product and personal consumption expenditures
-
- Figure 15: GDP change from previous period and consumption expenditures, Q1 2007-Q2 2020
- Disposable personal income
-
- Figure 16: Disposable personal income change from previous period, past 12 months, August 2019-July 2020
- Consumer Price Index
-
- Figure 17: Consumer Price Index change from previous period, past 12 months, August 2019-July 2020
- Population
- Youth will propel multichannel shopping
-
- Figure 18: Population by generation, 2014-24
- Youngest generations also bring diversity
-
- Figure 19: Distribution of generations by race, 2019
- Figure 20: Distribution of generations by Hispanic origin, 2019
- Number of households with children has dropped every year over last decade
-
- Figure 21: Households, by presence of own children, 2009-19
- Single-person households on the rise
-
- Figure 22: Single-person households, 2008-18
Key Players – What You Need to Know
-
- COVID-19 accelerates change
- Investing in the next normal
Competitive Strategies
-
- Enhancing omnichannel experience
- Providing emotional and physical support
-
- Figure 23: Zappos Customer Service Anything line
- Figure 24: TOMS crisis text line
-
- Figure 25: Lululemon strategies to reach at-home consumer
- Supporting small businesses
- Exploring new selling concepts
-
- Figure 26: Westfield Valley Fair Open Air Market
- Adding new advertising revenue streams
What to Watch
-
- Omnichannel evolution means continued change
- Tools and technology deployment
-
- Figure 27: Usage of and interest in emerging technologies, March 2020
-
- Figure 28: Oakbrook Center in Illinois, FIT:MATCH sizing tool
- Figure 29: Fleet Feet virtual fitting offering
- Fulfillment improvements
-
- Figure 30: Interest in delivery enhancements, March 2020
- Emerging forms of commerce
-
- Figure 31: Purchase incidence via social media, March 2020
-
- Figure 32: Purchase incidence via social media, by generation, March 2020
-
- Figure 33: Purchase incidence via smart speaker, March 2020
-
- Figure 34: Purchase incidence via smart speaker, by generation, March 2020
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
-
- Multichannel shopping is the norm, not a trend
- Curbside pickup is a big winner amid COVID-19
- Overhauling the store…again
- “Clean shopping” and other factors emerge as retailer drivers
- Finding balance will be key in the continued evolution of omnichannel retail
Shopping Approach by Category
-
- What consumers are shopping for
-
- Figure 35: Products shopped for, March 2020
-
- Figure 36: Spending priorities, August 27-September 8, 2020
- How consumers were shopping prepandemic
-
- Figure 37: Multichannel shopping versus single-channel shopping, by item, March 2020
- Searching
-
- Figure 38: Search method: in-store greater than online, by item, March 2020
-
- Figure 39: Search method: online greater than in-store, by item, March 2020
- Purchasing
-
- Figure 40: Purchasing behaviors: online versus in-store, by item, March 2020
- COVID-19 impact: less in-store, more online
-
- Figure 41: Shopping channel shifts in light of COVID-19, by gender and age, July 2020
-
- Figure 42: Percentage of shopping conducted online versus in-store, July 2020
-
- Figure 43: Percentage of shopping conducted online, before and during COVID-19, by generation, July 2020
Shopping Behaviors
-
- Shoppers seek to simplify and shorten path to purchase
-
- Figure 44: Shopping behaviors, March 2020
-
- Figure 45: Shopping behaviors, by generation, March 2020
- Deeper dive into BOPIS usage
-
- Figure 46: BOPIS shopping experience, March 2020
- Deeper dive into mobile usage in-store
-
- Figure 47: Reasons for using mobile device in-store, March 2020
-
- Figure 48: Mobile payment usage amid COVID-19, by gender and age, July 2020
- Other shopping behavior changes in light of COVID-19
-
- Figure 49: Shopping shifts in light of COVID-19, April and July 2020
-
- Figure 50: Spending priorities in light of COVID-19, by gender and age, July 2020
-
- Figure 51: Shopping with values in light of COVID-19, by gender and age, July 2020
How Physical Retail is Evolving
-
- Reenvisioning the store’s purpose
-
- Figure 52: CVS HealthHUB store concept
-
- Figure 53: IKEA Queens store announcement
- Figure 54: Announcement of Hy-Vee and DSW partnership
- Consumers want to learn, relax and be themselves when shopping in stores
-
- Figure 55: Foot Locker “Power” store format in Compton, California
- Figure 56: Favored in-store experiences, by generation, March 2020
- COVID-19 impact
-
- Figure 57: Comfort level with various activities amid COVID-19, August 12-21, 2020
Retailer Drivers
-
- Going beyond the basics
- Basics
- Tech-savviness
- Personalization and flexibility
- Corporate responsibility
-
- Figure 58: Retailer drivers, pre-COVID-19, March 2020
- COVID-19 brings new drivers to the forefront
-
- Figure 59: Retailer drivers, amid COVID-19, July 2020
-
- Figure 60: Sephora health and hygiene policy
- Figure 61: Nordstrom Welcome Back video
Attitudes toward Omnichannel Offerings
-
- Consumers want consistency when it comes to prices
-
- Figure 62: Attitude toward pricing, by gender and age, March 2020
- Automation in retail generally supported
-
- Figure 63: Attitudes toward automation, by generation, March 2020
- Clienteling is the future
-
- Figure 64: Attitudes toward personalization, by generation, March 2020
- Retailer examples
-
- Figure 65: Neiman Marcus, Your Neiman’s introductory post
- Figure 66: Nordstrom virtual style consultations
-
- Figure 67: Burton Snowboards takes on digital transformation
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
-
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
-
-
- Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast, including ecommerce, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 69: Total US retail ecommerce sales and forecast, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast, including ecommerce, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 71: Total US retail ecommerce sales and forecast, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
-
- Figure 72: Percentage of total retail sales by kind of business – Grand total and with some sector exclusions, 2019
-
Back to top