Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on solar panels
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- Figure 1: Short, medium and long term impact of COVID-19 on UK energy industry, 18 September 2020
- The market
- Solar PV capacity reaches 13.5GW in mid-2020, but official data deemed inaccurate
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- Figure 2: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, 2012-19
- Strong pipeline of large-scale, ground-mounted solar PV schemes
- Residential rooftop market to be driven by solar-plus-storage systems
- Solar PV deployment in commercial sector to be driven by PPA-backed projects
- Solar PV market expected to be driven by large-scale installations over the next five years
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- Figure 3: Forecast new photovoltaic capacity installed in the UK, 2020-24
- Companies and brands
- Solar PV sector sees rapid decrease in employment levels and turnover
- Installers are diversifying into energy storage, energy efficiency and EV charging
COVID-19 and Solar Panels
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- Impact on the market
- Impact of COVID-19 on solar PV installations relatively short-lived
- COVID-19 does not pose a big risk to large-scale solar PV sector
- Electricity mix shifts further towards renewables
- Solar can play an important part in the UK’s COVID-19 recovery
- Impact on the consumer
- A protracted economic recovery would hit solar PV demand in residential and commercial sectors
- People spending more time at home boosts the economics of rooftop solar PV
- Impact on companies and brands
- Cash flow is the biggest worry among installer
- COVID-19: Market context
Issues and Insights
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- Despite COVID-19 uncertainty, pipeline for UK large-scale solar PV is strong
- Linking solar PV with energy storage and EV technologies will be a key focus in the residential solar PV sector going forward
- Growth in EVs set to drive development of solar carports
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Large-scale installations set to drive solar PV deployment
- Residential rooftop market to be driven by solar-plus-storage systems and growing EV market
- More widespread adoption of corporate “net zero carbon” strategies will help drive solar PV deployment in commercial sector
Market Size
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- Introduction
- 13.5GW of solar PV installed in UK, according to official data
- But government statistics fail to accurately capture subsidy-free schemes
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- Figure 4: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, 2014-20
- Figure 5: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, 2012-19
Market Segmentation
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- Overview
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- Figure 6: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, by capacity of installation, 2015-20
- Solar PV installations by accreditation scheme
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- Figure 7: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, by accreditation scheme, 2015-20
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- Figure 8: Photovoltaic installed capacity in the UK, by size, as of July 2020
- Residential solar PV market
- Slump in residential solar PV deployment
- Domestic solar PV installations return to pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of June
- Post subsidy market to be driven by solar-plus-storage systems and growing EV market
- New finance options are emerging in post-subsidy world
- Domestic solar PV boosts house prices
- Introduction of Smart Export Guarantee expected to lead to more competitive tariffs for residential customers with solar PV
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- Figure 9: Residential photovoltaic installation capacity installed in the UK, 2015-20
- Building-mounted (commercial) solar PV market
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- Figure 10: Building-mounted photovoltaic installation capacity installed in the UK, 2015-20
- Figure 11: Building-mounted photovoltaic installed capacity in the UK, by size, as of March 2019
- Commercial rooftop market hit by sharp business rate hikes in April 2017
- Solar PV deployment in commercial sector to be driven by PPA-backed projects
- Ground-mounted solar PV market
- Subsidy-free, large-scale solar PV market starting to take off
- Emergence of PPAs presents growth opportunities for ground-mounted solar PV installations
- 1,081 solar farms (over 1MW) operational as of July 2020
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- Figure 12: Ground-mounted and large-scale photovoltaic installation capacity installed in the UK, 2014-19
- Community solar PV installations
- Challenges faced by community solar projects
- New opportunities starting to emerge
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- Figure 13: Community solar PV generation capacity across England, Wales and Northern Ireland, 2011-19
Regional Trends
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- Regional development
- London aims to boost solar PV deployment as part of the capital’s environment strategy
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- Figure 14: Household penetration of photovoltaic installations in Great Britain, by region, 2015-19
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- Figure 15: Regional distribution of photovoltaic installations in Great Britain, by type and region, cumulative as of March 2019
The European/World Context
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- Figure 16: World, Europe and UK cumulative photovoltaic installations, 2015-19
- Figure 17: World development of photovoltaic installations, 2013-19
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Market Forecast
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- The impact of COVID-19 on solar panels
- COVID-19 does not pose big risk to large-scale solar PV deployment, but economic downturn expected to impact residential and commercial sectors
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- Figure 18: Short, medium and long term impact of COVID-19 on UK energy industry, 18 September 2020
- Lockdown
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 19: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2019-2024, (in % annual change and % rate) - (prepared on 15th September 2020)
- Solar PV market expected to be driven by large-scale installations over the next five years
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- Figure 20: Forecast photovoltaic installed capacity in the UK, 2020-24
- Figure 21: Forecast new photovoltaic capacity installed in the UK, 2020-24
Market Trends
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- Battery storage and growing EV market set to drive residential rooftop PV deployment
- Large-scale battery storage market is taking off
- Increased adoption of bifacial modules in solar farms
- Tech and renewable trade associations enter partnership to stimulate PPA market
- Solar companies are turning their attention to new build sector and local authorities
- BIPV market becomes more established
- Water utilities offer opportunities for solar firms as sector ramps up its reliance on renewable energy to reach net zero goals
- Growth in EVs set to drive development of solar carports
Government Policy and Legislative Environment
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- The Climate Change Act 2008
- UK commits to 2050 net zero target
- UK makes good process in reducing CO2 emissions to date, but steeper reduction in emissions required to progress towards net zero
- Policies to decarbonise electricity
- Renewables Obligation
- Contracts for Difference
- Feed-in Tariffs
- Drastic cuts to FiTs in 2016 cause rooftop solar PV deployment to plummet
- FiT scheme closed in April, 2019, with the Smart Export Guarantee now the only type of solar PV support scheme available
- Capacity Market
Market Drivers
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- New housebuilding sector offers huge growth potential for solar PV companies
- Rented sector offers growth opportunities
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- Figure 22: Residential dwelling stock in Great Britain, 2014-19
- Number of non-domestic properties
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- Figure 23: Number of non-domestic rateable properties in England & Wales, by sector and region, as at 31 March 2019 (000s and % of total)
- Figure 24: Number of non-domestic rateable properties in England & Wales, by property type, as at 31 March, 2020
- Solar PV witnesses remarkable fall in costs
- New government analysis marks large-scale solar PV as the cheapest electricity generating technology
- Closure of FiT scheme increases payback period for residential rooftop solar systems
- EU scraps anti-dumping duty on China solar panels from September 2018
- BEIS and Ofgem unveil plans for major upgrade of the UK’s energy systems, including the removal of barriers to storage
- Government’s £246 million battery investment strategy
- Covid-19 accelerates shift to renewables generation
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- Figure 25: Analysis of electricity generation the UK, by type of fuel used, 2015-19
- Figure 26: Proportional importance of fuel source in UK electricity generation, 2015 and 2019
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- Figure 27: Renewable electricity generation in the UK, 2015-19
- The UK climate
- Other factors
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Installers are diversifying into energy storage, energy efficiency and EV charging
- Solar companies are looking for international expansion
Industry Structure
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- Solar PV sector sees rapid decrease in employment levels and turnover
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- Figure 28: Employment and number of companies active across UK solar PV supply chain, 2013-18
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- Figure 29: UK solar PV sector turnover, 2013-18
- Key industry players
- Installers are diversifying into energy storage, EV charging and energy efficiency
- Solar companies are looking for international expansion
Company Profiles
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- British Solar Renewables
- BSR launches behind-the-meter energy storage solutions provider in 2017
- Financial performance
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- Figure 30: Financial analysis of British Solar Renewables, 2014-18
- EvoEnergy
- Financial performance
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- Figure 31: Financial analysis of EvoEnergy, 2012-17
- Lightsource BP Renewable Energy Investment
- BP invests in Lightsource to drive global expansion
- Operational solar assets
- Operations and maintenance
- Construction assets and pipeline
- Lightsource Labs – the company’s in-house digital innovations arm
- Strategy
- Financial performance
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- Figure 32: Financial analysis of Lightsource BP Renewable Energy Investment, 2016-18
- Solarcentury Holdings
- Solarcentury sells residential business to Svea Solar
- Company review and outlook
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- Figure 33: Financial analysis of Solarcentury Holdings, 2016-20
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Methodology
Further Sources and Contacts
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- Trade associations
- Trade magazines
- Trade events
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