Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Times are tough, but consumers’ optimism hasn’t been defeated
- Consumers are willing to change their spending habits, but not by much
- Recession and COVID-19 spending changes are intertwined
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Key economic indicators as of June 2020
- Opportunities and Challenges
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
State of the Economy
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- Economic overview
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- Figure 2: Key economic indicators as of June 2020
- After massive layoffs and furloughs, US unemployment starts to dip once again
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- Figure 3: Unemployment and underemployment, January 2007-June 2020
- Consumer confidence craters as the pandemic rages on
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- Figure 4: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-June 2020
- DPI increased more than 13% due to government stimulus package
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- Figure 5: Disposable personal income change from previous period, January 2007-June 2020
- GDP drops nearly 33%
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- Figure 6: GDP change from previous period, Q1 2007-Q2 2020
- Personal saving rate spikes, then immediately begins to fall
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- Figure 7: Personal saving rate, monthly, seasonally adjusted annual rate, January 2007-June 2020
Current Financial Situation
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- Majority of consumers still consider their financial situation healthy/OK
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- Figure 8: Current financial situation, May 2020
- Year over year, confidence is slightly diminished, but consumers are still “OK”
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- Figure 9: Current financial situation, Q1 2017-Q1 2020
- Youngest generations are most likely to struggle
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- Figure 10: Current financial situation, by generation, May 2020
- Income is clearest indication of economic health
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- Figure 11: Current financial situation, by income level, May 2020
Future Financial Situation
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- Consumers don’t think their finances will change much by 2021
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- Figure 12: Future financial situation, May 2020
- Older consumers will maintain level of wealth, while younger consumers look for more
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- Figure 13: Future financial situation, by generation, May 2020
- One in five consumers, regardless of income, think they’ll be worse off in the coming year
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- Figure 14: Future financial situation, by income, May 2020
The US Recession
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- Consumers set their sights on “swoosh”-shaped economic recovery
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- Figure 15: Possibility of US entering a recession, May 2020
Potential Loss of Income
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- Most consumers not prepared to survive temporary loss of income
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- Figure 16: Opinions on potential for job or income loss, May 2020
- 25% of Millennials fear losing their job in a slow economy
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- Figure 17: Opinions on potential for job or income loss, by generation, May 2020
- Lower income families less financially prepared for job loss
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- Figure 18: Opinions on spending and economy, by income, May 2020
- Consumers would be “OK” six months after losing job
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- Figure 19: Financial situation six months after job loss, May 2020
- Regardless of age, consumers would still struggle after job loss
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- Figure 20: Financial situation six months after job loss, by generation, May 2020
Spending Behaviors
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- Half of consumers would change spending habits in a recession
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- Figure 21: Opinions on changes in spending behaviors, by generation and household income, May 2020
- Travel, dining out are the first recession casualties…
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- Figure 22: Opinions on changes in spending behaviors, ranked, May 2020
- Figure 23: Opinions on changes in spending behaviors, any rank, May 2020
- …but COVID-19 still affects these same activities
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- Figure 24: Comfort level of certain behaviors due to COVID-19, July 2020
- Consumers are holding off on major purchases in the short term
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- Figure 25: Spending behaviors – past and future, May 2020
- Consumers are saving, but not necessarily reducing debt load
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- Figure 26: Saving behaviors – past and future, May 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Consumer survey data
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
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