Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Key issues covered in this Report
- Report scope
Executive Summary
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- The economy staged a comeback in Q2
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- Figure 1: Summary of key economic indicators, China, January-July 2020
- Mintel’s predictions about recovery have been close to market reality
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- Figure 2: Monthly growth of total retail sales of consumer goods and foodservice in China, March 2018-July 2020
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- Figure 3: Growth rate of retail sales, by key sector, 2019-July 2020
- Consumers are adapting spending to changes in income
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- Figure 4: Changes in source of income after COVID-19, May 2020
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- Figure 5: Current financial situation, 2016-20
- Confident about the long term
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- Figure 6: Confidence in improving future financial situation, 2016-20
- Financial priorities haven’t changed that much
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- Figure 7: Financial priorities in the next 12 months, % very important, 2019-20
- Focusing on the core rather than spending on everything but cheaper products
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- Figure 8: Ways to improve financial situation during and after the outbreak, May 2020
COVID-19 China Context
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- Figure 9: Status of returning to work and restrictions in neighbourhood access, March-August 2020
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State of the Economy
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- GDP returned to growth in Q2 after Q1’s contraction
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- Figure 10: Quarterly growth of GDP in China, Q1 2000-Q2 2020
- PMI shows good four months in expansion
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- Figure 11: Monthly Purchasing Managers’ Index, China, January 2018-July 2020
- Imports and exports value started to show early signs of recovery
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- Figure 12: Growth in total value of imports and exports, China, January 2007-June 2020
- Unemployment easing, but pressure is still on under-25s
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- Figure 13: Monthly surveyed urban unemployment rate, China, January 2018-July 2020
- Seasonal factors have driven up food prices but CPI is overall under control
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- Figure 14: Consumer Price Index, China, January 2000-July 2020
- Decline in real income may drive importance of precautionary saving
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- Figure 15: Growth of per capita disposable income, China, 2019-20 (1H)
- Retail spending on track to recovery but speed is slowing down
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- Figure 16: Monthly growth of total retail sales of consumer goods and foodservice in China, March 2018-July 2020
- How well recovery has taken place against Mintel predictions so far
- What Mintel predicted in Q1
- What has happened so far
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- Figure 17: Growth rate of retail sales, by key sector, 2019-July 2020
- Short, medium and long term of consumer spending
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- Figure 18: Summary of overall consumer spending in the short, medium and long term, April 2020
Impact of COVID-19 on Household Income
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- Two thirds of respondents indicate reduced income
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- Figure 19: Changes in source of income after COVID-19, May 2020
Current Financial Situation
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- Consumers are adapting spending to change in income status
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- Figure 20: Current financial situation, 2016-20
- Civil servants and foreign enterprise employees have more potential to spend
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- Figure 21: Current financial situation, % saying “I can save considerable amount of money every month”, by demographic, 2019 and 2020
Confidence in Future Finances
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- Consumers are more confident about the long term
- Pessimism has been continuously declining
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- Figure 22: Confidence in improving future financial situation, 2016-20
Financial Priorities
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- Nothing has fundamentally changed
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- Figure 23: Financial priorities in the next 12 months, % very important, 2019-20
- Under-40s have more on their shoulders but are not giving up self-indulgence
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- Figure 24: Financial priorities in the next 12 months, % very important, by age, May 2020
Factors Impacting Spending
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- Employment and investment performance matter more after COVID-19
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- Figure 25: Spending influencing factors, 2019 and 2020
Ways to Improve Finances
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- Spending smartly rather than trading down
- Saturnbird’s success shows how brands could do
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- Figure 26: Ways to improve financial situation during and after the outbreak, May 2020
Appendix – Methodology and Abbreviations
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- Methodology
- Abbreviations
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