Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on breakfast cereals
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- Figure 1: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on breakfast cereals, 27th August 2020
- The market
- COVID-19 provides temporary boost to stagnating cereals category
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- Figure 2: UK retail volume sales of breakfast cereals (COVID-19-adjusted forecast), 2015-25
- The recession and long-term boost to homeworking will benefit the market
- Health focus puts pressure on RTE cereals but benefits hot segment
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- Figure 3: UK retail value sales of RTE and hot breakfast cereals, 2015-20
- Breakfast cereals perform well in sugar reduction
- Government emphasis on health intensifies under COVID-19
- Companies and brands
- Brands continue to dominate RTE cereals in 2019/20
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- Figure 4: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail RTE cereal market, by value, 2018/19 and 2019/20
- PepsiCo loses share in hot cereals due to mixed fortunes of its brands
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- Figure 5: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail hot cereal market, by value, 2018/19 and 2019/20
- L/N/R sugar claims low despite consumer interest
- Functional claims remain relevant; immunity looks set to prosper post-COVID-19
- Kellogg’s accounts for 44% of adspend in 2019
- The consumer
- Breakfast cereals have high usage
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- Figure 6: Overall usage of breakfast cereals, June 2020
- Over half of users eat RTE cereals at least four days a week
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- Figure 7: Frequency of eating breakfast cereals, June 2020
- Sweet cereals usage is almost equal to that of plain
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- Figure 8: Variants of breakfast cereals eaten, June 2020
- Low/no added sugar remains joint top of consumer priorities
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- Figure 9: Attributes most looked for on packaging when choosing breakfast cereals, June 2020
- Taste is driving factor but healthiness also key
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- Figure 10: Choice factors of breakfast cereals, June 2020
- Sugar content continues to be a key issue for consumers
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- Figure 11: Behaviours related to breakfast cereals, June 2020
- Nearly a third would like to see more indulgent porridge variants
- Interest in products from cereal brands in other categories could help tap into new occasions
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- Figure 12: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, June 2020
- Porridge enjoys healthiest perception overall, chocolate cereals can play as an enjoyable snack
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- Figure 13: Attributes associated with breakfast cereals, June 2020
COVID-19 and Breakfast Cereals
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- Impact on the market
- COVID-19 provides temporary boost to stagnating cereals category
- The recession and long-term boost to homeworking will benefit the market
- Impact on consumers
- Pandemic brings health into even greater focus; sugar will remain key factor
- Immunity likely to remain a bigger consumer concern
- Environmental concerns predicted to become more prevalent
- Consumers limiting time in-store benefits familiar brands and requires clear communication
- Impact on companies and brands
- RTE brands will need to prove their value in recession
- Convenient hot cereal formats likely to continue to be impacted
- Brands respond quickly to COVID-19 on social media
Issues and Insights
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- COVID-19 health concerns will make sugar content of breakfast cereals even more important
- High-fibre claims can tap into link with gut health and immunity post-COVID-19
- Nearly a third would like to see more indulgent porridge variants
- Interest in cereal in other categories could help tap into new occasions
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- COVID-19 provides temporary boost to stagnating cereals category
- The recession and long-term boost to homeworking will benefit the market
- Health focus puts pressure on RTE cereals but benefits hot segment
- Breakfast cereals perform well in sugar reduction
- Government emphasis on health intensifies under COVID-19
Market Size and Forecast
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- Impact of COVID-19 on breakfast cereals
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- Figure 14: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on breakfast cereals, 27th August 2020
- COVID-19 provides temporary boost to stagnating cereals category
- Spotlight on health and competition have seen breakfast cereals stagnate
- 2020 brings a sharp change in fortunes
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- Figure 15: UK retail value and volume sales of breakfast cereals (COVID-19-adjusted forecast), 2015-25 (prepared on 27 August 2020)
- The recession and long-term boost to homeworking will benefit breakfast cereals
- Health concerns and slower growth of core users stand to dampen demand
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- Figure 16: UK retail volume sales of breakfast cereals (COVID-19-adjusted forecast), 2015-25
- Income squeeze will limit value sales growth in 2021
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- Figure 17: UK retail value sales of breakfast cereals (COVID-19-adjusted forecast), 2015-25
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 18: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-25 (prepared on 27 August 2020)
- 2008-10 learnings suggest consumers will seek value in the category
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- Figure 19: Retail value sales of breakfast cereals, 2008-12
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Health focus will continue to put pressure on RTE cereals following COVID-19 boost
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- Figure 20: UK retail value sales of RTE and hot breakfast cereals, 2015-20
- Figure 21: UK retail volume sales of RTE and hot breakfast cereals, 2015-20
- Pandemic renews focus on health; more homeworking can be an advantage
- Income squeeze and Brexit uncertainty will provide opportunities and challenges
- Hot cereals continue to benefit from healthy perceptions
- Convenient formats may suffer post-COVID-19
Market Drivers
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- Flexitarian and plant-based trends gain further impetus due to COVID-19
- New study praises wholegrains as holistically healthy
- Breakfast cereals perform well in sugar reduction
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- Figure 22: Percentage of sugar reduction achieved across selected categories in PHE’s sugar reduction and reformulation programme, 2015-18
- Supermarkets trial moving high-sugar cereals to top shelf
- Government emphasis on health intensifies under COVID-19
- Government measures mirror National Food Strategy recommendations
- Value will gain increased importance as recession hits; trading down is likely
- Ageing of the population will prove a challenge
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- Figure 23: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2014-19 and 2019-24
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Brands continue to dominate RTE cereals in 2019/20
- PepsiCo loses share in hot cereals due to mixed fortunes of its brands
- L/N/R sugar claims low despite consumer interest
- Functional claims remain relevant; immunity looks set to prosper post-COVID-19
- Kellogg’s accounts for 44% of adspend in 2019
Market Share
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- Brands continue to dominate RTE cereals in 2019/20
- Majority of Kellogg’s brands see growth ahead of market
- Nestlé Cheerios also does well
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- Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail RTE cereal market, by value, 2017/18-2019/20
- Figure 25: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail RTE cereal market, by volume, 2017/18-2019/20
- PepsiCo loses share in hot cereals due to mixed fortunes of its brands
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- Figure 26: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail hot cereal market, by value, 2017/18-2019/20
- Figure 27: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail hot cereal market, by volume, 2017/18-2019/20
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- L/N/R sugar claims low despite consumer interest
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- Figure 28: Share of product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market featuring L/N/R sugar claims, 2015-20
- No-added-sugar claims lead
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- Figure 29: MOMA and Quaker launches with L/N/R sugar claims, 2020
- Lidl becomes latest supermarket to ditch cartoon character from kids’ cereals
- W.K. Kellogg and Quaker Kids extend their ranges
- Rainforest Foods uses low sugar to boost holistic health credentials
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- Figure 30: Recent examples of L/N/R sugar claims in children’s cereals, 2019-20
- Protein claims continue to be explored
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- Figure 31: Share of product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market featuring high/added-protein claim, 2015-20
- Kellogg’s expands its protein offerings with smoothie bowls and plant protein
- Special K launches smoothie bowls with protein
- W.K. Kellogg extends with Plant Protein Crunch variants
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- Figure 32: Examples of high/added-protein claims in breakfast cereals, 2019-20
- Functional claims remain relevant; immunity looks set to prosper post-COVID-19
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- Figure 33: Share of product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market featuring functional immune system or digestive claims, 2015-20
- Market leaders and smaller brands both explore gut health claims
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- Figure 34: Recent examples of launches with a gut health claim, 2020
- Immunity claims are rare but hold potential in the wake of COVID-19
- Kellogg’s and Lizi’s jump into immunity
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- Figure 35: Examples of launches making immunity claims – UK, 2020
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Kellogg’s account for 44% of adspend in 2019
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- Figure 36: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on breakfast cereals, by leading advertisers, 2019 and 2020
- Kellogg’s and Nestlé group their big brands to advertise them
- Health credentials continue to be highlighted in advertising
- Kellogg’s promotes Happy Gut range
- Coco Pops continue to publicise lower sugar
- Kellogg’s claims new White Choc Coco Pops are ‘magically delicious’
- W.K. Kellogg’s shows how its cereals do ‘Good All Round’…
- ..and launches campaign to mark new kids’ variants
- Weetabix returns to iconic tagline to demonstrate its positive effect
- Quaker and Weetabix keep emphasising their versatility
- Quaker encourages consumers to ‘Go Forridge’
- Weetabix updates Any-Which-Way-A-Bix with social media competition
- Brands respond quickly to COVID-19 on social media
- Nestlé and Weetabix Protein encourage families to be active during lockdown
- Quaker and Dorset Cereals reinforce customisation potential
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 37: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, June 2020
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 38: Key metrics for selected brands, June 2020
- Brand attitudes: Quaker and Weetabix lead on trust and quality perceptions
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- Figure 39: Attitudes, by brand, June 2020
- Brand personality: Coco Pops scores highest on fun
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- Figure 40: Brand personality – macro image, June 2020
- Crunchy Nut leads on delicious image
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- Figure 41: Brand personality – micro image, June 2020
- Brand analysis
- Quaker scores highest for caring about consumer wellbeing
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- Figure 42: User profile of Quaker, June 2020
- Weetabix enjoys highest commitment
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- Figure 43: User profile of Weetabix, June 2020
- Kellogg’s Crunchy Nut scores highest for being delicious
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- Figure 44: User profile of Kellogg’s Crunchy Nut, June 2020
- Alpen struggles to prove value
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- Figure 45: User profile of Alpen, June 2020
- Kellogg’s Coco Pops has strong family associations
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- Figure 46: User profile of Kellogg’s Coco Pops, June 2020
- Cheerios scores highly for fun but should reinforce health messaging
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- Figure 47: User profile of Cheerios, June 2020
- Kellogg’s All-Bran should push suitability as an everyday breakfast cereal
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- Figure 48: User profile of Kellogg’s All-Bran, June 2020
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- COVID-19 provides category with temporary boost and long-term opportunities
- Health will become an even bigger concern due to pandemic
- Sugar content continues to be a key issue for consumers
- Taste is the top factor driving choice
- Potential for cereal brands to expand into other categories
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour
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- Lockdown sees jump in breakfasts at home
- Large formats gain a boost as consumers limit time in-store…
- …while convenience-led formats lose out
- Long-term homeworking trend provides opportunities for category
- Pandemic brings health into even greater focus
- Sugar will remain a key factor in category going forward
- Immunity likely to remain a bigger consumer concern
- Environmental concerns predicted to become more prevalent
Frequency of Eating Breakfast Cereals
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- Breakfast cereals have high usage
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- Figure 49: Overall usage of breakfast cereals, June 2020
- Over half of users eat RTE cereals at least four times a week
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- Figure 50: Frequency of eating breakfast cereals, June 2020
- Porridge eaten by 45% of consumers
- 16-34s eat porridge the most frequently
Types of Cereal Eaten
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- Sweet cereals usage is almost equal to that of plain
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- Figure 51: Variants of breakfast cereals eaten, June 2020
- Sweet cereals usage highest amongst younger consumers and parents
Attributes Most Looked for when Choosing Breakfast Cereals
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- Low/no added sugar remains joint top of consumer priorities
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- Figure 52: Attributes most looked for on packaging when choosing breakfast cereals, June 2020
- Further opportunities in L/N/R sugar claims
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- Figure 53: Recent examples of products making an L/N/R sugar claim central to their product, 2020
- Room to explore the use of sweeteners
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- Figure 54: Recent examples of the use of chicory root fibre and xylitol in breakfast cereals, 2019-20
- High fibre content is among priorities for 45%
- Missed opportunity in not spelling out link between fibre and gut health more
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- Figure 55: Recent examples of brands making the link between fibre content and gut health, 2019-20
- Vitamin and high protein content are also popular
- Nestlé puts fortification in the spotlight
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- Figure 56: Nestlé Shreddies Original Wholegrain Cereal calling out vitamin content and associated benefits, 2020
- Protein remains a desired claim for one in five
Choice Factors of Breakfast Cereals
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- Taste is driving factor…
- …but healthiness is also key
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- Figure 57: Choice factors of breakfast cereals, June 2020
- Price is important for nearly two thirds
- Branded cereals dominate sales, but face growing pressure
Behaviours Related to Breakfast Cereals
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- Wanting to reduce sugar has motivated over 40% to swap cereal
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- Figure 58: Behaviours related to breakfast cereals, June 2020
- Calling out low sugar content on-pack can tap into swapping
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- Figure 59: Lizi’s Adventurers Banana Granola Crispies calling out low sugar content, 2019
- Figure 60: Halo Top Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough Flavoured Ice Cream, 2019
- Nearly a third would like to see more indulgent porridge variants
- International launches can provide cues for chocolate in porridge
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- Figure 61: Quaker Kids Porridge Mix-ups featuring chocolate flavours, 2019
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- Figure 62: Recent examples of Quaker exploring ‘sweet treat’ elements as limited editions, 2018-19
- Porridge can take cues from protein bar market
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- Figure 63: Recent examples of protein bars with ‘sweet treat’ elements, 2020
- Pesticides are a concern for over a quarter
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- Figure 64: Den Sorte Havre Norwegian Black Oats calling out being pesticide-free, 2020
- Packaging remains a more pressing issue
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- Figure 65: Examples of cereal launches calling out plastic-free packaging, 2020
Attitudes towards Breakfast Cereals
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- Interest in products from cereal brands in other categories could help tap into new occasions
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- Figure 66: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, June 2020
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- Figure 67: Recent examples of category blurring in yogurts, 2019-20
- UK could take inspiration from US ice cream examples
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- Figure 68: Recent examples of ice cream with cereal flavours, 2020
- Other categories present opportunities for less healthy cereals given consumers’ lesser focus on health
- Granola holds considerable potential due to crunchy texture
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- Figure 69: Recent examples of granola blurring into other categories, 2019-20
Attributes Associated with Breakfast Cereals
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- Porridge enjoys healthiest perception overall
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- Figure 70: Attributes associated with breakfast cereals, June 2020
- Muesli and granola need to work harder at reducing sugar content
- Chocolate cereals can position themselves as an enjoyable snack
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Share
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- Figure 71: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail RTE cereal market, by value, 2017/18- 2019/20
- Figure 72: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail RTE cereal market, by volume, 2017/18- 2019/20
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- Figure 73: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail hot cereal market, by value, 2017/18- 2019/20
- Figure 74: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail hot cereal market, by volume, 2017/18- 2019/20
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Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Figure 75: Share of product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by claim category, 2015-20
- Figure 76: Share of product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by ethical claims, 2015-20
- Figure 77: Share of product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by package material, 2015-20
- Figure 78: Share of product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by secondary package material, 2015-20
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Appendix – Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Figure 79: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on breakfast cereals, by media type, 2019 and 2020
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 80: Types of breakfast cereal eaten, June 2020
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