Table of Contents
Executive Summary
-
- Top takeaways
- Foodservice sales take a plunge in 2020, especially at FSRs
-
- Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 2: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on dining
-
- Figure 3: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on dining in, August 2020
- Opportunities and challenges
- Most consumers aren’t comfortable dining inside a restaurant
-
- Figure 4: Dining comfort level, July 15, 2020-August 21, 2020
- Prioritize PPE and CDC-recommended safety efforts
-
- Figure 5: Dine-in motivators, by dining segmentation, July 2020
- Recession discourages restaurant visits
-
- Figure 6: Dining segmentation, by current financial situation, July 2020
- Takeout and delivery usage is growing more frequent during re-emergence
-
- Figure 7: Change in takeout and delivery frequency, April-July 2020
- Ghost restaurants can deliver in disguise
- CPG poses greater threat to foodservice as consumers’ cooking skills improve
-
- Figure 8: Restaurant attitudes regarding COVID-19 – NET any agree, by generation, July 2020
- Sell more than foods and beverages to succeed
- Streamline the menu, but don’t neglect it
The Market – Key Takeaways
-
- Restaurant sales plummet in 2020, especially at FSRs
- Restaurants are up against worse macroeconomic conditions than in Great Recession
- Off-premise business is vital to survival
- Ghost kitchens provide creative solutions
Market Size and Forecast
-
- 2020 pandemic and recession take a steep toll on foodservice sales
-
- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on dining
-
- Figure 11: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on dining in, August 2020
- COVID-19: US context
Market Breakdown
-
- FSRs will lose major market share to LSRs as a result of COVID-19
-
- Figure 12: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
Market Perspective
-
- Grocery business booms in 2020
-
- Figure 13: Share of food expenditures for in-home food vs dining out, 2015-2020
Market Factors
-
- Dine-in and bar service in constant threat
- Restaurants face lawsuits over lack of COVID-19 precautions
- Hispanic and Black Americans are disproportionately affected by unemployment
-
- Figure 14: Unemployment rate, by overall, Hispanic and Black Americans, January 2007-July 2020
- Steeply falling DPIs will affect foodservice worse than prior recession
-
- Figure 15: Disposable personal income change from previous period, January 2007-July 2020
- Consumer confidence hasn’t reached Great Recession lows – yet
-
- Figure 16: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-July 2020
Market Opportunities
-
- Off-premise business is essential to survival
-
- Figure 17: Dining comfort level, July 15, 2020-August 21, 2020
-
- Figure 18: Change in takeout and delivery frequency, April-July 2020
- Rebrand for delivery
- Food halls can also go digital, get creative
- Technology offers restaurants new solutions and data streams
- Catering
-
- Figure 19: Famous Dave’s email, “Famous Dave's Catering Is Here for You,” June 23, 2020
- Alcohol should become a core piece of off-premise business
-
- Figure 20: Chicago bar and restaurant Kumiko’s cocktails to-go, July 2020
- Menu innovation isn’t dead
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
-
- Cash-strapped independents play into local demand
- Restaurant food may not be enough
- PPE provides consumers and employees protection, supports their Rights
Competitive Strategies
-
- Side hustles for sales
-
- Figure 21: Shake Shack’s email, “Attention campers: burgers are on us!” July 13, 2020
- PPE for everyone
- Family meal deals take center stage
-
- Figure 22: Panda Express’s Family meal deal, March-May 2020
-
- Figure 23: Red Lobster email, “Introducing family meal deals,” March 30, 2020
- Figure 24: Cracker Barrel email, “Summer sides + family meal baskets,” July 2, 2020
- Independents, small chains appeal to government, consumers for aid
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
-
- Most consumers are cautious about or uninterested in dining in
- Young and higher-income consumers are the most willing to dine in
- Cleanliness, social distancing and PPE are expectations at restaurants during recovery
Restaurant Dine-In, Takeout and Delivery
-
- Takeout and delivery is much more common than dine-in as of July 2020
-
- Figure 25: Restaurant dine-in, takeout and delivery, July 2020
- Fast food and coffee/tea shop ordering among consumers overall has recovered to pre-pandemic levels
-
- Figure 26: Restaurant ordering in past three months, April-August 2020
Restaurant Dine-In Intentions
-
- Most consumers who haven’t dined at a restaurant yet don’t plan to do so very soon
-
- Figure 27: Dine-in intentions, July 2020
- There are roughly equal proportions of Dining Enthusiasts and Cautious Diners
-
- Figure 28: Dining segmentation, July 2020
- Younger consumers will return to dining before older consumers
-
- Figure 29: Dine-in intentions, by generation, July 2020
- Black consumers are the least likely to hurry back to dining in
-
- Figure 30: Dine-in intentions, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Lower-income consumers least likely to plan on dining in at restaurants
-
- Figure 31: Dine-in intentions, by income, July 2020
Dine-In Barriers
-
- Communal seating and self-serve food buffets will have to wait
-
- Figure 32: Dine-in barriers, July 2020
- Women are particularly wary of self-serve amenities
-
- Figure 33: Dine-in barriers, by gender, July 2020
- Gen Z are not as concerned about traditional dine-in amenities
-
- Figure 34: Dine-in barriers, by generation, July 2020
- White and Asian consumers are most uncomfortable with self-serve, crowded seating
-
- Figure 35: Dine-in barriers, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
Dine-In Motivators
-
- Social distancing and masks will need to be the norm throughout recovery
-
- Figure 36: Dine-in motivators, July 2020
- Four fifths of consumers would feel safer at restaurants with social distancing, hand sanitizer stations and servers wearing masks
-
- Figure 37: Dine-in motivators – TURF analysis, July 2020
- Women want to see more safety measures in place
-
- Figure 38: Dine-in motivators, by gender, July 2020
- Gen Z doesn’t prioritize safety measures as much as other generations
-
- Figure 39: Dine-in motivators, by generation, July 2020
- Asian consumers drive demand for many safety measures
-
- Figure 40: Dine-in motivators, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
Dine-In Behaviors
-
- Many consumers feel comfortable wearing a mask while dining
-
- Figure 41: Dine-in behaviors, July 2020
-
- Figure 42: Spending priorities during pandemic, ordering restaurant food (takeout or delivery), by dining segmentation, July 2020
- Gen Z and Gen X are least comfortable wearing masks while dining
-
- Figure 43: Dine-in behaviors, by generation, July 2020
- Higher-income consumers are most comfortable with contactless payment, contact tracing
-
- Figure 44: Dine-in behaviors, by household income, July 2020
- Dads’ behaviors reflect the most concern about catching COVID-19 at restaurants
-
- Figure 45: Dine-in behaviors, by parental status, July 2020
- Urban dwellers are most likely to only order food to-go when there’s a vaccine
-
- Figure 46: Dine-in behaviors, by area, July 2020
Dine-In Occasion Interest
-
- Consumers think family meals are the most worthwhile for dining in
-
- Figure 47: Dine-in occasion interest, July 2020
- 18-44 year olds drive dining occasion variety, especially during the pandemic
-
- Figure 48: Dine-in occasion interest, by generation, July 2020
- White consumers are most interested in dine-in dinner service
-
- Figure 49: Dine-in occasion interest, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Higher-income consumers are most interested in dining at restaurants for a variety of occasions
-
- Figure 50: Dine-in occasion interest, by household income, July 2020
Restaurant Attitudes Regarding COVID-19
-
- Contactless pickup and delivery is extremely popular
-
- Figure 51: Restaurant attitudes regarding COVID-19 – NETs, July 2020
- Many men say restaurants should raise prices to cover COVID-19 costs
-
- Figure 52: Restaurant attitudes regarding COVID-19 – NET agreement, by gender, July 2020
- Millennials place most trust in restaurants keeping them safe, reducing COVID-19 risk
-
- Figure 53: Restaurant attitudes regarding COVID-19 – NET agreement, by generation part I, July 2020
-
- Figure 54: Restaurant attitudes regarding COVID-19 – NET agreement, by generation part II, July 2020
- Black and Asian consumers are the least trusting of restaurant safety during COVID-19
-
- Figure 55: Restaurant attitudes regarding COVID-19 – NET agreement, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2020
- Urban dwellers’ cooking skills have seen the most improvement
-
- Figure 56: Restaurant attitudes regarding COVID-19 – NET agreement, by area, July 2020
- Northeasterners want restaurants to continue selling groceries
-
- Figure 57: Restaurant attitudes regarding COVID-19 – NET agreement, by region, July 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
-
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
-
-
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of foodservice, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
-
Appendix – The Consumer
-
-
- Figure 59: Dining segmentation, by generation, July 2020
-
- Figure 60: Dining segmentation, by income, July 2020
-
- Figure 61: Dining segmentation, by current financial situation, July 2020
-
- Figure 62: Dine-in motivators, by dining segmentation, July 2020
-
- Figure 63: Dine-in behaviors, by dining segmentation, July 2020
-
- Figure 64: Restaurant attitudes regarding COVID-19, by dining segmentation, July 2020
-
- Figure 65: Food, drink and foodservice tracker, July 2020
- TURF Methodology
-
Back to top