The value of the UK conferencing and events market is estimated to fall by 74% to £11 billion in 2020, as the effects of COVID-19 suspended activity in the sector during its seasonal peak, leading to cancellation and rescheduling.

The ongoing nature of the pandemic has introduced uncertainty regarding the rescheduling of events, as organisers are forced to consider whether or not to continue with hosting events whilst ensuring adherence to social distancing. Ongoing public health and safety concerns and the substitution of cancelled events for virtual alternatives promise to permanently reshape the industry.

Consumers’ reluctance towards being in public spaces, particularly as part of a crowd or audience, will present a difficult barrier for the sector to overcome following reopening. Rescheduled large events may still suffer from substantially lower attendance compared to pre-COVID-19 expectations. Event organisers will respond by shrinking the scale of events to keep costs in line with anticipated revenues.

Initially, digital tickets will be marketed as a cost-conscious alternative, particularly within the corporate event sector. The shift to teleconferencing platforms, such as Zoom, initiated by the pandemic will see virtual conferencing become a more popular alternative to business travel in the longer term.

• The impact of COVID-19 on the conferencing and events market.

• How event organisers are responding to COVID-19.

• Challenges facing the conferencing and events market upon reopening.

• The uptake of virtual conferencing and its future in the market.

• How digital technology uptake will differ across the market’s segments.

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January, with a small number of cases in February. The government focused on the ‘contain’ stage of its strategy, with the country continuing to operate much as normal. As the case level rose, the government ordered the closure of non-essential stores on 20^th March 2020.

A wider lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, exercise and work ‘if absolutely necessary’ followed on 23^rd March. Initially, a three-week timeframe was put on the measures, which was extended in mid-April for another three weeks.

The Health Protections Regulations 2020 came into effect on 15^th June allowing the reopening of all non-essential stores in England as well as the mandatory use of face coverings on public transport. Pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers were able to reopen on 4^th July, with many beauty businesses following on 13^th July.

On 17^th July, the government announced plans to allow attendance at stadia and conferences and business events from 1^st October. In anticipation, a number of pilot events were scheduled to take place in August, however, some of these trials were later cancelled/postponed before others were given the green light again after a new announcement on 13^th August.

From 24 July, it became mandatory to wear face coverings in shops and supermarkets. Rules on travel remain fluid: from 10 July, travellers from more than 50 “low risk” countries no longer had to self-isolate for 14 days. However, Spain was removed from this list of low-risk countries on 28 July, followed by a number of others including Belgium, France and the Netherlands in the first half of August.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its July 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK GDP could fall by 12.4% in 2020, recovering by 8.7% in 2021, and that unemployment will reach 11.9% by the end of 2020, falling to 8.8% by the end of 2021.

The current uncertainty means that there is wide variation on the range of forecasts, however, and this is reflected in the OBR’s own scenarios. In its upside scenario, economic activity returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by Q1 2021. Its more negative scenario, by contrast, would mean that GDP doesn’t recover until Q3 2024.

The UK conferencing and events industry can be broken down into eight core segments: conferences and meetings; exhibitions and trade fairs; sporting events; music events; incentive travel and performance improvement; corporate hospitality and corporate events; outdoor events; and festivals and cultural events.

These segments can be also be grouped into three categories: business, leisure and mixed events. Business events are primarily focused on internal and external B2B interactions such as sales conferences, management meetings and training courses. These events can also encompass B2C interactions in the form of product launches or exhibitions. The business category includes the conferences and meetings and exhibitions and trade fairs segments.

Leisure events have a consumer orientation, primarily focused on providing attendees with an experience-based activity such as a music concert or seasonal celebration such as a Christmas fair. The leisure category consists of the sporting events, music events, outdoor events and festival and cultural events segments.

Mixed events contain elements of both the business and leisure segments. They are typically targeted to and used by corporate entities, with the goal of fostering relationships between those attending, and improving business outcomes as a result. The category consists of the incentive travel and performance improvement and corporate hospitality and corporate events segments.

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definitions:

Conferences and meetings: formal meetings in which people gather to talk about particular topics.

Exhibitions and trade fairs: exhibitions are public displays of objects, art, fashion, ideas etc, while trade fairs are organised so that companies in a specific industry can showcase their latest goods and encourage trade.

Sporting events: any audience-attended sports games and matches, from single events such as football matches to extended tournaments such as Wimbledon and the Olympics.

Music events: live music displays that come in several formats, from gigs and concerts to multi-day festivals.

Incentive travel and performance improvement: business-related travel intended to acknowledge achievements, provide motivation and help drive productivity and overall success.

Corporate hospitality and corporate events: the entertaining of clients by companies to promote business, especially at sporting or other public events.

Outdoor events: outside gatherings, ranging from flower shows, agricultural shows and charity events, to small village fairs and craft events.

Festivals and cultural events: often large-scale activities surrounding special events, such as Christmas, Bonfire Night or Edinburgh Fringe, or cultural events such as Diwali, Chinese New Year and Notting Hill Carnival.