Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on foodservice
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- Figure 1: Expected impact of COVID-19 on foodservice, in short, medium and long term, 19 August 2020
- The market
- Sharp recovery expected after record decline in market value
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- Figure 2: Forecast value of the UK foodservice market (adjusted for COVID-19 on 19 August 2020), 2015-25
- Eat Out to Help Out scheme and VAT cut
- Companies and brands
- COVID-19 has spurred disruptive innovations
- “Grocerants”
- Dark kitchens
- Al fresco dining
- Value-added deals
- eCommerce
- The consumer
- Consumers starting to feel comfortable eating out again
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- Figure 3: Comfort level of going out to eat, 25 June-7 August 2020
- Two fifths of consumers haven’t ordered a takeaway since lockdown
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- Figure 4: Changes in takeaway/home delivery frequency during COVID-19, May 2020
- People living in large towns are now the biggest weekend takeaway users
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- Figure 5: Days of the week usage for takeaway/home delivery since the start of the pandemic, May 2020
- Childless couples drive dinner takeaways
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- Figure 6: Most popular mealtimes for takeaway/home delivery since the start of the pandemic, May 2020
- Gen-Zs boosting the fast food market
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- Figure 7: Fast food outlets visited for takeaway/delivery occasions since the start of the pandemic, May 2020
- Pizza delivery weathering COVID-19 downturn
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- Figure 8: Restaurants visited for takeaway/delivery occasions since the pandemic, May 2020
- Avoid the “squeezed middle”
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- Figure 9: Purchase drivers for takeaway/home delivery food, May 2020
- Resurgence of eating out as a treat
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- Figure 10: Important factors for making decisions about eating/drinking, May 2020
- Experiential marketing in COVID-19 times
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- Figure 11: Attitudes towards eating out, May 2020
COVID-19 and Foodservice
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- Impact on the market
- Flexible working practices will redistribute foodservice spend
- Government support to help the recovery of foodservice
- Impact on consumers
- Consumers starting to feel comfortable eating out again
- Resurgence of eating out as an occasional treat rather than the norm
- Deepening technological capabilities
- Impact on companies and brands
- Dark kitchens
- Al fresco dining
- Value-added deals
- eCommerce
Issues and Insights
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- Post-COVID-19: Brits likely to save dining out for special occasions
- Everyday low pricing will attract cost-conscious consumers
- Creating transparency and trust in hygiene
- Deepening technological capabilities
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Sharp recovery expected after record decline in market value
- Eating out expenditure to be redistributed
- Eat Out to Help Out scheme will kickstart recovery
Market Drivers
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- Government measures help to kickstart recovery
- Foodservice venues finally given the green light to reopen for dine-in
- Eat Out to Help Out scheme and VAT cut
- Health matters: obesity and the food environment
- A challenging economy will hurt demand for foodservice
- Decline of the workforce
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- Figure 12: Unemployment rate forecast, 2020-24
- Squeezed incomes will restrict eating out expenditure
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- Figure 13: Consumer confidence, January-July 2020
- COVID-19 has spurred disruptive innovations
- Ban on plastics likely to be pushed back
Market Size and Forecast
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- VAT cut and “Eat Out to Help Out” scheme help kickstart the foodservice market
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- Figure 14: Expected impact of COVID-19 on foodservice, in short, medium and long term, 19 August 2020
- The market
- Sharp recovery expected after record decline in market value
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- Figure 15: Forecast value of the UK foodservice market (adjusted for COVID-19 on 19 August 2020), 2015-25
- Figure 16: UK eating out market size and forecast, 2015-25
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 17: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-24 (prepared July 2020)
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 18: UK eating out market size and forecast, 2007-12
- Forecast methodology
- COVID-19: Market context
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Meal kits allow restaurants to profit from home cooking boom
- Ready-to-cook meals allow customers to replicate favourite restaurant dishes at home
- Selling groceries appeals to customers who are keen to support local
- Dark kitchens allow brands to expand food delivery reach
- Al fresco dining mitigates customers’ reluctance to dine indoors
- Mobile catering allows brands to go straight to customers
- Set menus allow operators to optimise ingredients
- Scope for online activities to boost ecommerce
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- COVID-19 has spurred disruptive innovations
- Online activities will boost nationwide delivery
- Deposits and tickets to deal with no-shows
- Playing with supermarket checkout
- Farmers’ market
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- Figure 19: US Chipotle’s Virtual Farmers' Market, started in 1 July 2020
- Frozen food
- Ready-to-cook
- Grab-and-go
- Meal kits
- Future is in dark kitchens
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- Figure 20: Dishoom delivery through Deliveroo Editions, as of 19 August 2020
- More collaboration, less competition
- Multi-brand delivery
- Mobile catering
- Value-added deals
- From fine dining to fried chicken
- Set menus
- Al fresco dining
- Shortening dining times
- Sustainability takes a backseat
- Low-tech delivery functions
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Post-COVID-19: three Trend Drivers of growth
- Wellbeing
- Value
- Experience
- COVID-19 will accelerate demand for functional food and drink
- Resurgence of eating out as an occasional treat rather than the norm
- Deepening technological capabilities
- Sustainability takes a backseat
- Hygiene will become top of mind for most
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour
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- Consumers starting to feel comfortable eating out again
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- Figure 21: Comfort level of going out to eat, 25 June-7 August 2020
- Winter is coming
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- Figure 22: Proportion of consumers who feel uncomfortable going to a restaurant/bar indoors, by age, 30 July-7 August 2020
- Continue to deliver
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- Figure 23: Spending intent over the next month, 25 June-7 August 2020
Pre-COVID-19 Eating Out Frequency
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- Cooking at home is part and parcel of British lifestyles
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- Figure 24: Frequency of eating out before the pandemic, May 2020
- Consumers were willing to spend on eating out of the home in normal conditions
Changes in Home Delivery Frequency during COVID-19
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- Two fifths of consumers haven’t ordered a takeaway since lockdown
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- Figure 25: Changes in takeaway/home delivery frequency during COVID-19, May 2020
- Frequent users are ordering more takeaway
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- Figure 26: Frequency of ordering a takeaway/home delivery before the pandemic, by changes in takeaway/home delivery frequency during COVID-19, May 2020
Days of the Week that Consumers Order Takeaway
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- People living in large towns are now the biggest weekend takeaway users
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- Figure 27: Days of the week usage for takeaway/home delivery since the start of the pandemic, May 2020
- Weekday users are ordering more takeaway
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- Figure 28: Days of the week usage for takeaway/home delivery since the start of the pandemic, by changes in takeaway/home delivery frequency during COVID-19, May 2020
Most Popular Mealtimes for Takeaway
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- Childless couples drive dinner takeaways
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- Figure 29: Most popular mealtimes for takeaway/home delivery since the start of the pandemic, May 2020
- Parents driving breakfast and lunch
Fast Food Venues Visited for Takeaway
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- Gen-Zs boosting the fast food market
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- Figure 30: Fast food outlets visited for takeaway/delivery occasions since the start of the pandemic, May 2020
Restaurants Visited for Takeaway
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- Pizza delivery weathering COVID-19 downturn
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- Figure 31: Restaurants visited for takeaway/delivery occasions since the start of the pandemic, May 2020
- Ethnic cuisines still preferred by all
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- Figure 32: Restaurants visited for takeaway/delivery occasions since the start of the pandemic, by changes in takeaway/home delivery frequency during COVID-19, May 2020
Purchase Drivers for Takeaway
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- Re-evaluating ‘value’ priorities in the wake of COVID-19
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- Figure 33: Purchase drivers for takeaway/home delivery food, May 2020
- Avoid the “squeezed middle”
- Convenience centres on safety
Factors that Influence Consumers’ Choice of Food and Drink
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- Resurgence of eating out as a treat
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- Figure 34: Important factors for making decisions about eating/drinking, May 2020
- Young consumers will prioritise functional food and drink
- 16-34 year olds: mind-body wellness
- 16-24 year olds: fit food
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- Figure 35: Important factors for making decisions about eating/drinking, by days of the week usage for takeaway/home delivery since the start of the pandemic, May 2020
Attitudes towards the Future of Eating Out
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- Safety first
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- Figure 36: Attitudes towards eating out, May 2020
- Experiential marketing in COVID-19 times
- Innovation to build a better post-COVID-19 market
- Packaging
- Robotics
- Grocerants are here to stay – CHAID Analysis
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- Figure 37: The future of eating out – CHAID – Tree output, May 2020
Eating Out Consumer Segmentation
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- COVID-19 consumer tribes
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- Figure 38: Eating out consumer segmentation – cluster analysis, May 2020
- Typical characteristics of each group
- Engaged Diners
- Futurists
- Cautious Planners
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
- CHAID Methodology
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- Figure 39: The future of eating out – CHAID – Table output, May 2020
- Cluster analysis group definitions
- Experiential Marketing
- Food safety
- Pro-innovation
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